Weekly Preview: Mexico Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Mexico Open

Vidanta Vallarta
Villa Hidalgo, Mexico

The PGA Tour heads south for another edition of the Mexico Open.

Like last week's event, this one is up against it. By that I mean, there are very few scenarios that will make this "must-see TV." Actually, there is only one scenario, and that revolves entirely around Jon Rahm.

I should back up for a moment and mention that it's not necessarily a bad thing that we have some soft spots on the schedule. I Tweeted the week after the Masters that I thought it was a poor idea to stage an elevated event right after a major, and while we got a great ending, I still feel we need to let the big events breathe a little. If we had an elevated event every week, they wouldn't be special. With that in mind, when looking back at Zurich Classic of New Orleans, it has lost all its luster in my eyes, and the only way to save it is to make it a designated event. The PGA Tour has mentioned that it plans to rotate "elevated" status from year to year, and turning the team event into an elevated one would be a nice fit, as it is held two weeks after a major rather than one. Not only would it slot in well on the schedule, let's think about how it would look. It's nice that we get a couple pairings with big-time names, but not enough to balance the throngs of unknown players in the field. Can you imagine if we have 10 super teams teeing it up in the team event? Now that would be "must-see."

Okay, back to this week. For the Mexico Open to be a success it will need Rahm to contend, and considering his current odds, there's a really good chance he will do just that.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Jon Rahm shot a final-round 69 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama and Brandon Wu.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (26-10)

I don't have to say it, but I will. This is ridiculous. Yes, he's the clear favorite, but this isn't tennis. Rahm can't stop someone else from playing extremely well. With that said, he's probably going to be there at the end. He won this event last year and is on top of his game right now, so there's no reason to think he won't be around the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. Still, there's just no value at this price.

Tony Finau (17-2)

These odds might be even more ridiculous. Finau is without a doubt the second best player in the field, but in order to win he needs to beat Rahm. Let's not forget that he needs to best over a hundred other golfers as well. Finau finished runner-up in this event in 2022, and he's likely to play well again, but like Rahm there's just no value at this number. Your best option might be to hope that someone other than Rahm goes out early and posts a low number. That would inflate the price for both Finau and Rahm, although the latter's won't increase unless he starts slowly.

Wyndham Clark (19-1)

I can't remember a field that dropped off so fast, but beyond Rahm and Finau there just isn't much to get excited about. That's why we see the third option on the board all the way down here. Clark has played well this season, particularly of late, posting three top-10s in his past four starts. He didn't play all that well here last year, but he did make the cut. I'd prefer his odds be a little higher, but there is some value, especially if Rahm and Finau aren't on top of their games.

THE NEXT TIER

Nicolai Hojgaard (24-1)

Hojgaard doesn't have the PGA Tour experience that many in the field have, but he has something that most don't -- multiple wins at a high level. Hojgaard has won twice overseas, and whether or not that will translate stateside has yet to be seen. He has managed to play pretty well in his three PGA Tour starts, though, so maybe this guy has something.

Patrick Rodgers (28-1)

If you start with this section you may think this is an alternate event, as there just aren't any big names remaining. What we are left with are golfers you normally can't trust but seem to be playing well right now. Rodgers fits that mold, as he posted a solo fifth at the Texas Open and a top-20 at the RBC Heritage. He fared well here this past year, notching a T10.

Beau Hossler (38-1)

One thing we know for certain is that if Hossler finds himself in contention he will not be afraid to win. Another thing we know about Hossler is that he is trending in the right direction. He went through a brutal stretch at the beginning of the year, but he's played his way out of it, and he enters this week off a solo third in New Orleans -- although nothing is really solo in that tournament.

LONG SHOTS

Brandon Wu (65-1)

It's hard to stand out in a field full of long shots, but Wu looks like he has a navigable path to victory. For starters, he almost won here this past year, losing to Rahm by just one stroke. Secondly, his game has improved this year. Wu picked up another runner-up earlier this season at Pebble Beach and posted a top-20 at THE PLAYERS in March.

Robby Shelton (75-1)

There was a time I would throw out "hunch" plays on a weekly basis, and if I recall correctly they paid off about as often as my other picks. For some reason, though, I got away from that in recent years. Well, it's time to go back to the well, as what else are you going to do in a tournament like this? There is a cluster of players that look very similar after the top two, so how do you find one that stands out? As I scrolled through the odds, something spoke to me about Shelton and I'm going with it. He's a first-timer here, but he has played well this year. He missed the cut this past week, but that was a team event, so I'm not worried. Shelton posted a T15 in his last solo start at the Valero.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Wyndham Clark - Given the diminished purse, I can't imagine any OAD players using Rahm in this spot. There's not a lot of upside and a ton of downside. Finau may be in play, but personally, I'd save him for an elevated event. That leaves only a couple players that stand out, one of which is Clark.

Moderately-owned Pick: Patrick Rodgers - There's a chance that this week's OAD picks are all over the board, but I have a feeling they'll be concentrated around the guys just behind the top two. Rodgers is one of the players in that group and his prospects look good, so I'd imagine he will be plenty popular.

Lightly-owned Pick: Brandon Wu - Considering the field, I'm a little surprised that Wu's odds are so high. Because of that, though, he will likely be an afterthought for most OAD players. Even though he's buried a bit, he has just as good a shot to place high as anyone other than the top duo.

Buyer Beware: Tony Finau - He played well here this past year, but I'm still not sure about his motivation this time around. Perhaps he wants to best Rahm, but I can't be sure his head will be in the game. Finau has been a pretty reliable golfer over the years, so I doubt he shows up only to check out. Honestly, though, who else could I list here? Rahm is going to show up, and no one else on hand has the cache to be a potential letdown.

This Week: Brandon Wu - I went back and forth with this one, but in the end I took my own advice. Specifically, my belief that Wu has just as good a shot at a high finish as anyone outside of Rahm and Finau. I have a feeling that Clark is going to be extremely popular and I don't want to get caught up in that cluster.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($12,600)
Middle Range: Brandon Wu ($9,900)
Lower Range: Jimmy Walker ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Jon Rahm - I know, I'm using a sledgehammer to pound a nail here, but hear me out. First, I have to keep my streak in mind, which has reached 10. I certainly don't want to lose that with a no-name, so I need someone I can trust. Yes, Rahm will have a ton of value down the road, but who else can you really place your faith this week? I like plenty of guys in the OAD format, but do I trust any of them to make the cut? The answer is no, and honestly, I don't trust Finau either. There's no way Rahm shows up at this event only to mail it in -- and I'm not sure he even knows how to do that.

Previous Results