Weekly Preview: Wells Fargo Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Wells Fargo Championship

Quail Hollow Club
Charlotte, NC

The PGA Tour heads to Charlotte for this year's edition of the Wells Fargo Championship.

Before we get to that, I want to talk about what happened at the Mexico Open, because I find it fascinating. No, Tony Finau winning isn't particularly interesting, nor is Jon Rahm finishing second, but the fact they were the top two on the betting board entering the week and the same was also true the year before -- when the order was reversed -- is indeed captivating. I always caution against betting the favorite when the odds are under 10-1, even when there are only two elite players in the field. It rarely pays off. In this case, though, it has paid off two years running...if you wagered on both guys, that is. Maybe it's the course or perhaps it's these two particular golfers that can manage to stay focused, even when they are the only two threats on hand. Whatever the reason, I'm not going to let this affect me going forward, as Jon Rahm at 3-1 is a lot different than say, Rory McIlroy at the same odds. Some guys just show up every week and some are a little less dependable.

Speaking of Rory, any guess on the favorite this week with Rahm and Scottie Scheffler out of the picture? The scenario this week is far different than it was in Mexico, but McIlroy is the clear frontrunner for the oddsmakers. Let's see how he plays.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 1:30 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Max Homa shot a final-round 68 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young and Keegan Bradley.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (7-1)

These are really short odds considering the competition. McIlroy has to get the better of a lot of good players. Now, with that said, he has the track record here to make me think he will be in the mix, even if he doesn't wind up in the winner's circle. McIlroy has won this event three times in 10 starts on this course. Keep in mind that last year's event was played at a different track. McIlroy will play well, but I don't think there's enough value at this price.

Patrick Cantlay (13-1)

I'm not quite sure about Cantlay being the second favorite. There are plenty of high-level players in the field, ones that have very solid track records here. Then there's Cantlay, who has played this event just once and missed the cut. Cantlay is certainly part of the group of golfers just below the top three, but I don't see him at the head of that group and these odds imply that.

Tony Finau (17-1)

Finau opened as the third choice on the board, which was certainly a result of his play in Mexico. While he has shown the ability to catch fire several weeks in a row, his track record in this event makes me hesitate. Finau has played this event six times -- five on the current course -- and has yet to crack the top 10. Three others now find themselves with the same odds as Finau.

THE NEXT TIER

Viktor Hovland (17-1)

Hovland has played well this year, but we haven't seen the payoff yet. That could come this week as he returns to the site where he carded a T3 in 2021. Last season felt like a lost cause for Hovland once we got to February, but this year feels different. It feels like he is on the verge of accomplishing something big. Whether that's a major or maybe multiple wins, we don't know yet, but I'm expecting something this week from Hovland.

Cameron Young (17-1)

Speaking of something big on the horizon, Young is a few steps behind Hovland, as he has not won on the PGA Tour. That is undoubtedly coming soon, though. I thought that win might come in Texas, but that wasn't to be as he was just a little off the level he showed at the Masters. With a couple weeks to regroup, I expect a better showing from Young.

Matt Fitzpatrick (29-1)

This would be a good time to remind you that last year's results were on a different course. I bring this up now because both Young and Fitzpatrick finished T2 last year. Regardless, I like them both this week, and Fitzpatrick more than Young as it's clear the former is back on track. Fitzpatrick picked up his first win in an elevated event a few weeks ago and looks to be rounding into form just in time for the PGA Championship.

LONG SHOTS

Sahith Theegala (50-1)

Theegala is a first-timer here, but he's not alone, as several of the top players made their Wells Fargo Championship last year, but on a different track. In other words, he won't be at a huge disadvantage. Theegala, like a couple guys previously mentioned, is poised for a breakout, and a win here would certainly qualify.

Keith Mitchell (70-1)

It's crazy that of all the players listed above, only McIlroy has a better track record here than Mitchell. Others not mentioned have fared better than Mitchell, but he stands out among this group. Mitchell missed the cut this past year, but that is of little matter. In three starts at Quail Hollow, Mitchell has two top-10s, including a T3 in 2021.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - There are numerous reasons why McIlroy will be popular this week, and those would be: 1) course history, 2) talent, 3) no Rahm, 4) no Scheffler, 5) lack of track record for most of the top players here and 6) McIlroy's seemingly diminishing value in the majors.

Moderately-owned Pick: Tony Finau - McIlroy appears to be the easy option at the top, so what we will probably be left with are a bunch of guys with similar, yet small, shares of the remaining pie. Finau should be among this group after last week's win in Mexico.

Lightly-owned Pick: Jason Day - There's rarely room above to include all the top options, so I had to find a place for Day. Day won this event in 2018 and has finished outside the top 25 just once in four tries on this course. He might slip under the radar because of the firepower at the top, and he has probably been deployed by a lot of OAD players at this point.

Buyer Beware: Keegan Bradley - Bradley's history in this event is just okay, and when you take out the runner-up from this past year on a different course, the track record looks pretty poor. In other words, this course doesn't seem to suit Bradley. In five Wells Fargo Championship starts at Quail Hollow, Bradley has three missed cuts and only one top-20.

This Week: Matt Fitzpatrick - I would feel a lot better about this pick had the runner-up that Fitzpatrick posted last year come on this course, but I still like it. I was a bit handcuffed because I've used Day, Homa and Young, but I still had McIlroy, Finau and Hovland to choose from. You could argue that Fitzpatrick has more value down the line -- specifically at the majors -- than any of those three, but I'm going with my instinct.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Rory McIlroy ($12,100)
Middle Range: Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,500)
Lower Range: Will Gordon ($8,000)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Rickie Fowler - If you had told me a year ago that I'd be risking an 11-week streak on Fowler, I wouldn't have believed it, but Fowler -- though not quite back to his previous form -- has become pretty reliable once again. In addition, Fowler's track record here is very impressive. He has missed the cut in this event just once in 10 tries and he has four top-10s to his credit.

Previous Results