Weekly Preview: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Austin Country Club
Austin, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Texas for this week's Match Play tournament.

This event always brings some added excitement because of the rarely-used format, and while it's not quite what it was 20 years ago, it's still fun. The field is missing some big names, but before we get to the field, let's do a quick recap on how things will work. Unlike a traditional bracket, the Match Play runs a pod-style format to narrow down the field from 64 players to 16. At that point the tournament turns into a true bracket. This was done to eliminate the possibility of anyone traveling to Texas and being forced to leave after losing on the first day. While this format is better for the players, it's not better for the fans, as the excitement of the "one-and-done" format is limited to only a couple days. A big first-round upset doesn't mean that much in the grand scheme of things, at least not like it used to. Another reason for the format change was to give the elite players a better chance to make the weekend, but that hasn't worked either, as we are still just as likely to see lower-ranked golfers in the final as we were before. 

There's no perfect answer here, other than perhaps giving byes to the top-ranked players. That would never fly, though, so we have what we have: an imperfect event that's just quirky enough to grab the attention of most golf fans.

All odds via golfodds.com as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Billy Horschel defeated Scottie Scheffler 2&1 in the final match.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (12-1)

Let's start by stating that all of the odds for the favorites should be doubled. If you think it is hard finding value at the top of the board during a normal event, you are going to be sorely disappointed when you see this week's odds. Rahm's play of late doesn't merit 'favorite' status, but he's coming out of what might be the easiest group, and you can't win it all unless you win your pod, so he has a leg up there. His results at Austin CC have been mixed, but he does have two top-5s in four starts. He could win this week, but there's no value at this price.

Justin Thomas (14-1)

Thomas was the second favorite this past week, and although he played well, he never really threatened to win. That could change this week, as his form appears to be the best among the favorites at the moment, but again, in this format, anything less than 20-1 has little value. Thomas' group is more challenging than Rahm's, as he has to deal with Kevin Kisner and Marc Leishman, so it's no sure bet he even reaches the weekend. JT's track record here is not great, with only one top-5 in five starts.

Viktor Hovland (16-1)

It seemed for a moment that Hovland might take over the PGA Tour, and although he has played well, he has not reached that level yet. A win this week would go a long way toward doing so, but he has to pull it off first. Unfortunately for Hovland, he's got Will Zalatoris and a suddenly-hot Sepp Straka in his way. Hovland should find a way out of his group, but it won't be easy. As for course history, Hovland has played here just once. He did not find success, so that should temper expectations as well.

THE NEXT TIER

Xander Schauffele (25-1)

We have not seen Schauffele's best so far this year, but if this past week is any indication, he might be starting to put it together. Schauffele was never in contention this past week, but he did manage to pull off a T12, even after a final-round 71. His group is more than manageable, with seemingly only an out-of-form Tony Finau in his way. He has not reached the quarterfinals in three appearances in this even, but he did come very close on two occasions. Look for Schauffele to reach the weekend this year and do some damage.

Jordan Spieth (35-1)

Spieth's group looks tough on paper, but it's actually pretty light. Justin Rose is way off his game right now, Adam Scott hasn't played well in this event in over a decade and Keegan Bradley has never cracked the top 16 here. Bradley has shown the best form recently, but he's well past the stage in his career where he can string together a number of strong performances. Spieth has not shown his best form this year, but back home in Texas, on a track that is very familiar to him, I'm expecting that to change.

Talor Gooch (60-1)

I felt it was okay to combine the mid-tier and long shot groups this week because this is such a quirky event. Gooch has an interesting group, because the top player -- Bryson DeChambeau -- is one we haven't seen in a while, Lee Westwood hasn't been good for while and the fourth players is Richard Bland, a golfer some fans may not even have heard of. Gooch is on the ascent, and it would be a huge feather in his cap if he plays well this week. I think he survives his group, and after that, who knows.

LONG SHOTS

Brian Harman (60-1)

When looking for a long shot this week, the first thing to do is make sure he's in a group he can get out of. There are some big names in Harman's way, but none of those are playing well right now. Bubba Watson is playing better than Webb Simpson, but neither are close to peak form. At the top there's Abraham Ancer, who is also nowhere near his peak. When you consider Harman escaped his pod in each of his past two attempts here, you have to like his chances to deliver.

Erik van Rooyen (125-1)

This is another instance in which a long shot has a decent change to get out of his group. Brooks Koepka is at the top and he's not at his best. Shane Lowry is playing well, but he hasn't played well in this event since 2013, and Harold Varner III hasn't performed since winning overseas. van Rooyen played this tournament for the first time this past year and finished T9. He's got some upside, so if he clears his group, he could do some work.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - He's not peaking, but it's hard to get past how easy his group looks. Many OAD players will be looking for someone who can simply reach the quarterfinals, and Rahm looks like the most likely. It's a toss-up what he can do at that point, as his game has not been great this year. But he's still Rahm, right? I'm going to hold off using him, but I can't argue if you don't.

Moderately-owned Pick: Jordan Spieth - Many OAD players will not go big this week, and the selections could be all over the board, but I have a feeling that Spieth will get a lot of attention. One, because of his group, and two, because he's from Texas and seems to play well in his home state. This looks like a sneaky good play, as Spieth has not been great this season but could thrive in this format.

Lightly-owned Pick: Brian Harman - Harman does not come to mind when you think about match play stalwarts, and that's probably because he's never been on a Ryder Cup team. However, he was pretty good at this event in his only two starts, finishing T9 in 2018 and T5 in 2021. If you are trying to stay away from the elite players, Harman could be your guy.

Buyer Beware: Daniel Berger - Berger seems to be in good form, but he's never fared well at Austin CC. In four starts here he's never made it to the final 16, and his group looks like trouble. Berger isn't even the highest-ranked player in his pod. That honor goes to Tyrrell Hatton, who has played some decent golf over the past month. Berger also has to deal with Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who can run extremely hot and cold.

Last Week: Sam Burns - 1 - $1,404,000

Season Total: $5,243,346

This Week: Xander Schauffele - Schauffele meets all the criteria this week. Past experience on this track? Check. Good form coming into the week? Check. Not so big a name that I'll regret not having him later in the season? Check. A pod that looks beatable on paper? Check. Enough moxie to win an event like this? You guessed it. Check.

FANDUEL PICKS

FanDuel is not offering contests for the Match Play event.

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last week: Louis Oosthuizen - T61

Streak: 3

This Week: N/A