This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 63 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Calvin Kattar (23-6-0) v. Arnold Allen (18-1-0)
DK Salaries: Kattar ($8,000), Allen ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Kattar (+100), Allen (-120)
Odds to Finish: +100
One of the more underrated featherweights on the entire roster the past couple years, Kattar will be competing in his fifth straight main event and his sixth in his past seven bouts. His 3-3 record in his past half-dozen fights doesn't look all that impressive, but Kattar fell victim to questionable judging in a split-decision defeat to Josh Emmett in his most recent bout this past June. Each of Calvin's last three appearances have earned him a $50,000 Fight of the Night bonus.
Speaking of underrated, Allen most certainly falls into that category, as well. The Brit has won each of his first nine UFC bouts. Part of the reason Allen doesn't get the recognition he deserves is because six of his nine fights with the company have taken place overseas. He has begun to fight stateside more of late, which has helped enhance his profile. He's an excellent featherweight, and the exposure will be a good thing for Allen over the long run.
Kattar's biggest issue has been the fact he struggles to generate secondary offense. He's an excellent boxer and as tough as they come, but he relies on volume in the striking game to be successful. He offers little in terms of an offensive ground game, although to Kattar's credit, he has defended the takedown at an elite 91 percent clip to date.
I'm curious to see if Allen tries to lean on his wrestling here. He only averages 1.41 takedowns per 15 minutes, but attempting to engage the significantly bigger Kattar is a prolonged kickboxing match probably isn't the way to go, even if Allen is excellent on the feet in his own right.
I touched on the size differential between the two briefly. Kattar, a massive featherweight at 5-foot-11, will enter with a three-inch edge in height and two-inch edge in reach. Allen is talented enough to defeat Calvin if he can get inside consistently, but Kattar is very good at using space to his advantage.
There's a significant edge in Kattar's favor in terms of the level of competition he has gone up against, and he has the experience of going 25 minutes on multiple occasions. That said, it feels like Allen's time. Calvin has been inconsistent. I view this as a true pick 'em, which both the Vegas odds and DK salaries suggest, but I have a very slight lean in Allen's favor in what should be a back-and-forth bout in which both men land plenty of offense.
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Allen
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Tim Means (32-12-1, 1NC) v. Max Griffin (18-9-0)
DK Salaries: Means ($7,400), Griffin ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Means (+150), Griffin (-175)
Odds to Finish: +110
Means has been fairly effective when you take into account the fact he turned 38 years of age this past February. He's 4-2 in his last half-dozen bouts dating back to December 2019, with the two defeats coming against quality competition in Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez. Means has excellent size for the division at 6-foot-2, and with nearly 50 professional fights under his belt, no one in the 170-pound division is more experienced.
Griffin is no spring chicken himself, as he will be turning 37 years of age in late November. Max had a nice three-fight winning streak snapped in a split-decision setback to Neil Magny this past March. Griffin has legitimate stopping power and is a better wrestler than he gets credit for. I don't think his ceiling is all that high, but I see no reason he can't remain competitive for at least a few more years.
While Means has a clear experience edge, there's zero question Griffin is the more physical fighter. I'm interested in seeing how Max goes about attacking his opponent. He's three inches shorter than Means, a rarity for a guy who fights a welterweight and checks in at 5-foot-11. If Griffin can get inside without issue, I think he has a good chance of winning. The vast majority of Means' 19 career knockout victories came early in his career.
Griffin has never been submitted, but he needs to be careful on the mat with Means. I have more confidence in Means' ground game at this stage of his career than his striking. I imagine Griffin -- who lands 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes -- will be tempted to try to lean on his wrestling, but I'm not sure that's the way to go here. Means is sneaky off of his back.
I like Griffin to win, all things considered, but he seems overpriced. This isn't a deep card, and DFS players will have to make a stand somewhere, but I'd rather roll the dice on either man in the main event, for example, at a considerably cheaper salary.
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Griffin
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski (34-20-0, 2NC) v. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-9-1)
DK Salaries: Arlovski ($7,300), Rogerio de Lima ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Arlovski (+185), Rogerio de Lima (-215)
Odds to Finish: +100
There won't be anything technical about this fight, but it should be quite a bit of fun for however long (or short) it lasts.
Arlovski, set to turn 44 years of age this coming February, continues to make me look like a fool, having won four straight and five of six dating back to May 2020. The UFC has been extremely careful regarding Arlovski's opposition, and it has paid off.
Rogerio de Lima has been with the UFC for more than eight years, competing first at light heavyweight and then at heavyweight, while sporting a record hovering around the .500 mark. Marcos has a bunch of power, as one would expect from a man his size, but his cardio has long been questionable, and his submission defense is a real concern. Luckily for him, Arlovski has just two submission wins in more than 55 professional fights, with the last coming against Tim Sylvia (!!!!!) at UFC 51(!!!!!) in February 2005 (!!!!!). That performance won Arlovski the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship.
So, in short, this should be the wild back-and-forth brawl everyone is expecting. Rogerio de Lima is going to have the edge in pure power, and while I can't believe I'm saying this, Arlovski should have the edge most everywhere else.
Arlovski has been surprisingly effective in the latter stages of fights given his advanced age. He's going to have to survive a massive blitz from the Brazilian right off the bat, but if he can hang around long enough to see a second round, I think he can actually win this fight.
Rogerio de Lima is intriguing because he could earn an instant knockout at any moment, but as a one-dimensional brawler, his price tag seems way too high, whether you think he's going to win or not.
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Arlovski
Middleweight
Phil Hawes (12-3-0) v. Roman Dolidze (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Hawes ($8,400), Dolidze ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Hawes (-165), Dolidze (+140)
Odds to Finish: -125
Hawes has long been one of the middleweight division's most underrated fighters. He has fight-ending power and is a former JUCO wrestling national champion during his days at Iowa Central Community College. He's won four of five UFC bouts, with his lone defeat being a knockout at the hands of another solid competitor in Chris Curtis back in November 2021.
Dolidze has also been impressive, winning four of his first five bouts with the company. Roman is a massive middleweight, standing 6-foot-2, in addition to being an excellent grappler. He's less proficient on the feet than Hawes, although he does have five career victories via knockout.
Both these guys employ a wrestling-based attack. Hawes averages 2.27 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Dolidze is even better at 2.68. The difference comes in terms of the takedown defense percentage. Hawes has yet to be taken down, while Dolidze checks in at a woeful 37-percent defensive clip. That might lead you to believe Phil will try to drag this thing to the mat, but I think he would be best served to keep it standing.
Hawes is the better athlete and should have a significant power edge. He also will enter with an inch reach edge despite being two inches shorter than Dolidze.
Other than the main event, this is pretty clearly the best fight on the entire card.
I'm slightly concerned by the fact Hawes will be 34 years of age next January and his best UFC victory has come against Nassourdine Imavov, but Dolidze is only about six months younger and hasn't really beaten anyone of note, either.
This looks like a good matchup for the New Jersey native in what should easily be one of the most compelling bouts all evening.
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Hawes
Other Bouts
Heavyweight
Jared Vanderaa (12-9-0) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: Vanderaa ($7,200), Cortes-Acosta ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Vanderaa (+170), Cortes-Acosta (-200)
Odds to Finish: -225
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Cortes-Acosta
Middleweight
Josh Fremd (9-3-0) v. Tresean Gore (4-2-0)
DK Salaries: Fremd ($8,700), Gore ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Fremd (-170), Gore (+145)
Odds to Finish: -170
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Fremd
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (18-5-1) v. Khalil Rountree (11-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Jacoby ($8,300), Rountree ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Jacoby (-165), Rountree (+140)
Odds to Finish: -190
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Rountree
Middleweight
Joseph Holmes (8-2-0) v. Jun Yong Park (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Holmes ($6,900), Park ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Holmes (+200), Park (-240)
Odds to Finish: +120
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Park
Featherweight
Chase Hooper (11-2-1) v. Steve Garcia (12-5-0)
DK Salaries: Hooper ($9,200), Garcia ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Hooper (-245), Garcia (+205)
Odds to Finish: -180
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Hooper
Flyweight
Cody Durden (13-4-1) v. Carlos Mota (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Durden ($7,700), Mota ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Durden (+150), Mota (-175)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Mota
Bantamweight
Christian Rodriguez (7-1-0) v. Joshua Weems (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: TBD
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-345), Weems (+285)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC VEGAS 63 PICK: Rodriguez
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 63 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
