This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 81 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Sodiq Yusuff (13-2-0) v. Edson Barboza (23-11-0)
DK Salaries: Yusuff ($8,700), Barboza ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Yusuff (-165), Barboza (+140)
This main event won't impact the rankings at 145 pounds much, but it should be an action-packed bout. Kudos to the UFC for booking these two in a five-round fight inside the smaller cage at the UFC Apex.
Set to turn 38 years of age next January, Barboza snapped a brief two-fight losing streak with a vicious knockout of Billy Quarantillo in April. He'd lost five of seven prior bouts, but it's worth noting all of those defeats -- Bryce Mitchell, Giga Chikadze, Dan Ige, Paul Felder, Justin Gaethje -- came against quality competition. Edson's athleticism has waned, and his durability is a major question mark, but he still hits hard and remain capable of putting an opponent out in an instant, like we saw in the Billy Q fight.
Yusuff has been nearly flawless in his seven UFC bouts, going 6-1 with the lone setback coming against underrated 145-pounder Arnold Allen. Sodiq has a couple knockouts and a submission in that stretch, although he's primarily fought opponents that would be termed "gatekeepers" --names such as Andre Fili and Alex Caceres -- in his two best wins to date.
Neither of these two wrestle, and I'd be completely flabbergasted if this develops into anything other than a kickboxing match. That's obviously good news for Barboza, as that's about the only type of fight he can win at this stage of his career.
The one big thing to keep an eye on here is which man can get his kicking game going. Everyone knows about Edson's low kicks. They are arguably the best in the history of the sport. The attempts are accurate, well-timed, and devastating. That said, Yusuff is no slouch himself in that department. He mixes things up nicely and is certainly not just a headhunter.
I favor Yusuff slightly, all things considered, but Edson is two inches taller and will have a four-inch reach edge. Both could be major factors in what projects as a stand-up battle.
I'm worried about the durability of Barboza, but he looks like a value play given the numbers. I simply don't see anywhere near $1,200 difference in salary between these two.
THE PICK: Barboza
Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Jennifer Maia (21-9-1) v. Viviane Araujo (11-5-0)
DK Salaries: Maia ($8,500), Araujo ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Maia (-150), Araujo (+125)
Now 35 years old, few women on the UFC roster have been as inconsistent as Maia. She's 6-5 with the UFC, although most of the wins have come against lesser competition. Her unanimous decision victory over Casey O'Neill in her most recent fight this past March was arguably her best performance to date. Maia can probably remain somewhat relevant for a while given she competes in arguably the thinnest division in the company, but I'm not overly optimistic about her long-term outlook.
Araujo looked great early in her tenure with the company, winning four of her first five, again, against lesser competition. It's all fallen apart of late, with three losses in her past four fights, including back-to-back setbacks to Amanda Ribas and Alexa Grasso. Obviously, the Grasso defeat doesn't look all that bad right now. In a strange twist, Araujo was due to face O'Neill a couple weeks ago before the latter pulled out, Maia stepped in, and the fight was pushed back to this event.
In may ways, the fighting style of these two mirror one another. Both through plenty of volume on the feet and possess poor stand-up defense. Both can be dragged into a brawl at a moments notice and it often doesn't end well. Araujo will enter with a four-inch reach edge despite the two women being the same height.
The greatest edge either woman possesses comes in the form of Araujo's grappling. She lands 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes while connecting on 48 percent of her attempts. Maia's takedown defense is a poor 57 percent. Jennifer has found herself on the mat against opponents such as Jessica Eye and Katlyn Chookagian, who typically have no grappling game whatsoever.
Likely in need of a win to save her job, Araujo would be wise to just lean on her wrestling in an attempt to secure a boring decision. All that matters is that she emerges victorious, by any means necessary.
Again, I have time for the underdog given the price, but I'm worried Araujo is going to get overwhelmed on the feet if she isn't able to take Maia down. Her striking defense really is quite poor.
THE PICK: Maia
Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez (18-4-0) v. Adrian Yanez (16-4-0)
DK Salaries: Martinez ($8,000), Yanez ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Martinez (-115), Yanez (-105)
It's not receiving much publicity, but this is a quality scrap between two underrated fighters.
Martinez has very quietly won five in a row and seven of his past eight. Included in that stretch are wins over Said Nurmagomedov and Cub Swanson, so it's not as if he's padding his record by beating up nobodies. Of course, there's a real case to be made Martinez didn't deserve the decision against Nurmagomedov, but he fought pretty well regardless. The 29-year-old Los Angeles native is a fringe top-15 guy in arguably the deepest division in the company.
Yanez earned his UFC opportunity with a knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2020. He then went on to win his first five fights with the UFC, including four via knockout, before getting viciously finished by Rob Font on the main card of a pay-per-view this past April. Yanez was a -185 favorite in that one, and it was a performance that really halted all the momentum he had been gained over the past handful of fights.
Yanez's issue is that he's a one-dimensional brawler. He hits hard, but he's the type that is willing to eat two strikes in order to land two of his own. As we saw in the Font fight, that becomes a problem against better competition. He offers nothing in the grappling game, having never landed a takedown in his UFC run. To Yanez's credit, however, he hasn't been taken down either.
Martinez is a better all-around fighter. Not as dynamic, and unable to match Yanez in the power department, but also without any significant weaknesses. I trust him to have a superior game plan, which could easily be the difference in a bout that projects to be as close as this one.
This, as the odds and DraftKings salaries suggest, is a straight pick 'em. Yanez's explosiveness is intriguing, but the Font performance was a big red flag, and I really like Martinez. I think he's just a more refined fighter -- something that could make all the difference in the world in a close bout.
THE PICK: Martinez
Middleweight
Michel Pereira (28-11-0, 2NC) v. Andre Petroski (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($8,600), Petroski ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-155), Petroski (+130)
Petroski is in for Marc-Andre Barriault (medical issues) on roughly 10 days' notice.
The UFC's patience with Pereira has to be wearing thin despite the fact he's won five straight. He was due to face Stephen Thompson at UFC 291 in late-July but missed weight by three pounds. Wonderboy, as is his right, refused to step in the Octagon. It's the second time during the Brazilian's run with the company that he has came in heavy.
It seems like a worthy risk for Andre, who has won five in a row to begin his stint with the company. The first three came via stoppage, while the last two came via decision. I've been impressed with what I've seen from Petroski. He looks like a confident, all-around fighter with no significant weaknesses in his game.
Pereira has big time power. Michel is more precise and technical than Petroski, as well, and should have a distinct advantage whenever this fight is on the feet.
Pereira is an underrated wrestler. He averages 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a ridiculous 55 percent of his attempts. That last number suggest he reads situations very well and recognizes the openings in which he can get his opposition to the ground. That said, going to the mat with Petroski is not a receipe for success. He's averaging a ridiculous 4.56 takedowns per 15 minute. Pereira's takedown defense -- a stellar 94 percent to date -- must again be on point if he is to emerge victorious here.
Maybe it's because it came together at the last minute, but I have very little feel for this fight. That said, it looks like another reasonable spot for an underdog. The Pereira weight cutting issues are a concern. Petroski also has a world-class skill in his wrestling game. If he has troubles on the scale because he accepted this fight on such late notice, all bets are off, but otherwise I'll roll with Andre.
THE PICK: Petroski
Other Bouts
Catch Weight
Edgar Chairez (10-5-0, 1NC) v. Daniel Lacerda (11-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Chairez ($9,200), Lacerda ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Chairez (-305), Lacerda (+245)
THE PICK: Chairez
Bantamweight
Christian Rodriguez (9-1-0) v. Cameron Saaiman (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($8,400), Saaiman ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-165), Saaiman (+135)
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Featherweight
Darren Elkins (27-11-0) v. TJ Brown (17-10-0)
DK Salaries: Elkins ($7,400), Brown ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Elkins (+170), Brown (-205)
THE PICK: Brown
Women's Bantamweight
Tainara Lisboa (6-2-0) v. Ravena Oliveira (7-1-1)
DK Salaries: Lisboa ($9,400), Oliveira ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Lisboa (-360), Oliveira (+285)
THE PICK Lisboa
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney (14-5-0) v. Brendon Marotte (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: McKinney ($9,500), Marotte ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: McKinney (-475), Marotte (+360)
THE PICK: McKinney
Women's Bantamweight
Irina Alekseeva (5-1-0) v. Melissa Dixon (5-0-0)
DK Salaries: Alekseeva ($7,600), Dixon ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Alekseeva (+125), Dixon (-150)
THE PICK: Alekseeva
Bantamweight
Chris Gutierrez (19-5-2) v. Heili Alateng (16-8-2)
DK Salaries: Gutierrez ($9,000), Alateng ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Gutierrez (-310), Alateng (+250)
THE PICK: Gutierrez
Women's Strawweight
Ashley Yoder (8-8-0) v. Emily Ducote (12-8-0)
DK Salaries: Yoder ($6,900), Ducote ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Yoder (+285), Ducote (-360)
THE PICK: Ducote
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 81 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
