This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 84 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC 2024 Opening Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1, 1NC) v. Johnny Walker (21-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Ankalaev ($9,400), Walker ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Ankalaev (-455), Walker (+350)
These two met at UFC 294 in late-October, when an illegal Ankalaev knee floored Walker and left him unable to continue. The fight was ruled a no-contest. From a technical standpoint, nothing has changed in three months.
Ankalaev was fighting Jan Blachowicz for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship in December of 2022. It ended up being a career-altering night for Magomed, as the fight ended in a split draw, a shocking result considering Ankalaev deserved the victory and should have walked out as champion. Now, he has to fight a tough customer in Walker -- again -- just to get his name back into title contention.
Walker was a legitimate release candidate following a stretch from November 2019 to February 2022 in which he lost four of five, but he has since rebounded with three straight wins over Anthony Smith, Paul Craig and Ion Cutelaba. All three of those opponents are solid, but far from the top of the food chain at 205 pounds. Walker's physical gifts aren't in question. He's gigantic, and the power is beyond legitimate, but I still have questions about the fight IQ. I think we are going to learn a lot here about just how good he really is.
Ankalaev's advanced numbers are mind blowing. He absorbs just 2.15 significant strikes per minute despite the fact he averages less than a takedown (0.99) per 15 minutes. When you see a fighter take that little damage, it's typically because they are always wrestling and find themselves in top position constantly. Think Islam Makhachev or Khabib Nurmagomedov. Ankalaev is just an excellent defender, especially considering he fights in a higher weight class.
It's worth noting in the first matchup between the two that Magomed landed his only takedown attempt. Walker has no chance if he spends a good portion of this fight on his back.
Walker is going to have to use his size to his advantage, and he's going to have to do so quickly. Johnny enters with a three-inch height edge and a whopping seven-inch reach advantage. Four of his last six fights have ended in Round 1, and I highly doubt Walker will be able to hang with Ankalaev if this thing goes for an extended period of time, so Johnny should probably just go for broke in search of an immediate finish.
The price tag on Walker is reasonable, if not generous, given his massive power, but his path to victory is really quite small. There's zero doubt Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter. I could see things getting hairy for Magomed at times early on, but given the fact he has displayed zero durability issues in the past, my guess is he survives the flurry Walker sends his way and emerges victorious.
THE PICK: Ankalaev
Co-Main Event - Flyweight
Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) v. Manel Kape (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Nicolau ($7,200), Kape ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Nicolau (+205), Kape (-250)
This is a rematch of a March 2021 matchup that Nicolau won via split decision. I remember thinking it was a terrible call at the time, as most everyone thought Kape deserved the bout 29-28, and my opinion has not changed over time.
That victory was the start of a four-fight winning streak for Nicolau, which was snapped in a knockout loss to recent title challenger Brandon Royval in his most recent bout last April. Matheus is now 7-2 in nine fights with the UFC over the course of two different stints with the company, and while he may not be a true threat to the top flyweights on the roster, he makes for pretty valuable depth.
Kape has rebounded from the Nicolau defeat with four straight wins of his own. He knocked out Ode Osbourne and Zhalgas Zhumagulov before taking recent unanimous decisions over David Dvorak and Felipe dos Santos. The dos Santos fight, Kape's most recent, was supposed to be against Kai Kara-France, but KKF withdrew a couple weeks prior to the event.
Nicolau landed two takedowns in the opening round the first time the two met, but failed on his six attempts the rest of the way. Not surprisingly, that allowed Kape, who has more power and better footwork, to get going in the stand-up and start to pull away.
Although similar in size, Kape has a real edge in terms of explosiveness. Nicolau typically does an excellent job of defending, absorbing just 3.14 significant strikes per minute, and that will have to hold up if he hopes to be successful here.
Matheus won the striking battle by a 76-73 edge in the first fight between the two. He also landed the only two takedowns, albeit on nine attempts. While those numbers could be viewed as a positive, I view it as a negative simply because it's likely about as well as Nicolau can do against Kape, and I still felt he came up short.
Nicolau's salary is plenty reasonable, but the bottom line is that Kape lands with more consistent authority and that should be enough in the long run. Assuming the judges get it correct, which they didn't the first time around.
THE PICK: Kape
Lightweight
Jim Miller (36-17-0, 1NC) v. Gabriel Benitez (23-11-0)
DK Salaries: Miller ($8,200), Benitez ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Miller (-120), Benitez (+100)
Now 40 years of age, this will be Miller's 43rd bout with the UFC, most in company history. His 25 UFC wins are also a company record. It hasn't been pretty, but Jim is 3-1 in his past four bouts dating back to October 2021. The wins have come against lower-end opposition (Jesse Butler, end-of-career Donald Cerrone, Nikolas Motta, Erick Gonzalez), however. Benitez is probably better than most of those names, but he's struggled of late.
A loser of back-to-back fights, Gabriel likely saved his job with a knockout win of Charlie Ontiveros in August 2022. Benitez has bounced back and forth between featherweight and lightweight. At age 35, I'd prefer he just pick a division and stick with it at this stage of his career. I thought "Moggly" has some potential early in his UFC run, but his 2-4 record in his past half-dozen bouts clearly proves otherwise.
Three of Miller's four recent wins have come via knockout, but he's still a mat-oriented grappler that will get eaten alive in a prolonged striking battle against a halfway decent opponent. Benitez has ten career wins via submission, but almost all came early in his career. He's primarily a brawler, and theoretically, the type of guy that can give Miller some trouble.
A high-volume striking affair favors Benitez, but he's so reckless and inconsistent -- even on a fight-to-fight basis -- I have no idea if he will actually be able to take advantage of the theoretical weaknesses in Miller's game.
One thing about Jim, even at his advanced age, is that he will fight for your dollar. You're going to get a guy that enters in terrific shape and isn't going to beat himself inside the Octagon.
I have a less-than-zero idea if that will be enough, but given what we've seen from Benitez, I'd much rather bet on the preparedness of Miller than whatever Gabriel is going to give us on Fight Night. I'm not crazy about either man from a DK perspective. Too many unknowns despite the fact we have a ton of background on both men.
THE PICK: Miller
Bantamweight
Ricky Simon (20-4-0) v. Mario Bautista (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Simon ($8,600), Bautista ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Simon (-175), Bautista (+145)
Having won five straight and in the midst of climbing the loaded 135-pound rankings, Simon suffered a crushing defeat in a knockout loss to Yadong Song last April. That fight, a main event, lasted until early in the fifth round, and Simon was battered on the feet for the duration of the bout. It's possible Song -- a heavy power-puncher with high-end striking skills -- was simply a bad matchup for Simon, but the result won't help the talk that Ricky is nothing but a high energy wrestler with questionable secondary skills.
He gets an opponent here in Bautista that enters with five straight victories of his own. Three of those five wins have come via submission, although Mario's greatest attribute is that he's a volume striker, landing a whopping 5.32 significant strikes per minute. I've been very impressed with the growth of Bautista. I didn't think much of him upon his January 2019 debut, but he's clearly improved in his four years with the company and is still just 30 years of age.
I mentioned Simon's wrestling earlier. He averages a ridiculous 5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's landed at least two takedowns in all but one of his bouts with the UFC and that one fight was a 46-second loss to Urijah Faber. Unlike some other guys, Simon sticks with the takedown attempts even if the first few don't land. That's key when your secondary skills are lacking. Bautista lands 2.72 takedowns of his per 15 minutes, but his takedown defense is a dreadful 56 percent. In a fight scheduled for just three rounds, a well-timed Simon should could be the difference.
Bautista doesn't possess the striking skills of Song, but if he is able to remain upright and fire off plenty of volume, he can win this fight, especially since he's two inches taller than Simon. Ricky doesn't have durability issues, and Bautista isn't a power puncher, so the odds are this fight will see the final bell in some form or fashion.
I think Simon's wrestling is better than Bautista's striking, so he's the pick, but all bets are off if the takedowns aren't landing. I don't have any issue using Mario as a punt DK play simply because he seems like a near lock to land a bunch of volume on the feet if he remains upright. He he is immediately grounded, it's not going to matter anyway.
THE PICK: Simon
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Phil Hawes (12-5-0) v. Brunno Ferreira (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Hawes ($7,900), Ferreira ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Hawes (+100), Ferreira (-120)
THE PICK: Hawes
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski (34-22-0, 2NC) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Arlovski ($6,700), Cortes-Acosta ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Arlovski (+440), Cortes-Acosta (-600)
THE PICK: Cortes-Acosta
Welterweight
Matthew Semelsberger (11-6-0) v. Preston Parsons (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Semelsberger ($8,400), Parsons ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Semelsberger (-125), Parsons (+105)
THE PICK: Semelsberger
Bantamweight
Marcus McGhee (8-1-0) v. Gaston Bolanos (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: McGhee ($9,100), Bolanos ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: McGhee (-280), Bolanos (+225)
THE PICK: McGhee
Bantamweight
Farid Basharat (11-0-0) v. Taylor Lapilus (19-3-0)
DK Salaries: Basharat ($8,900), Lapilus ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Basharat (-280), Lapilus ($7,300)
THE PICK: Basharat
Featherweight
Westin Wilson (16-8-0) v. Jean Silva (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Wilson ($6,600), Silva ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Wilson (+525), Silva (-750)
THE PICK: Silva
Lightweight
Nikolas Motta (13-5-0, 1NC) v. Tom Nolan (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Motta ($7,000), Nolan ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Motta (+240), Nolan (-300)
THE PICK: Nolan
Flyweight
Joshua Van (9-1-0) v. Felipe Bunes (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Van ($8,800), Bunes ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Van (-220) Bunes (+180)
THE PICK: Bunes
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 84 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
