Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
UFC 320 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 320 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
UFC 320 Main Event Pick - Light Heavyweight Championship
(C) Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1, 1NC) v. Alex Pereira (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Ankalaev ($8,900), Pereira ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Ankalaev (-230), Pereira (+175)
This is a rematch of a March fight in which Ankalaev won via unanimous decision, taking Pereira's title in the process. When you have the latter's resume, you probably deserve an immediate rematch, even if Alex struggled mightily the first time around.
Pereira seemed out of sorts from the very start in the last fight. We all know about his ridiculous power. You simply cannot fight him in the pocket for any extended period of time because you'll eventually go to sleep.
Ankalaev is without question one of the most athletic light heavyweights on the roster. His footwork is excellent, and he never allowed Pereira to get into a rhythm. He continuously circled, picked Alex apart, and absorbed relatively minimal damage.
The significant strike count was 94-76 in Ankalaev's favor. I didn't think there there was any 205-pounder that could get the better of Pereira in a prolonged stand-up battle, but I was wrong there.
The grappling game was a different story. Ankalev was credited with a dozen takedown attempts. He failed on all, but still generated 5:42 worth of control time, almost all of which came in Round 4. The fact he was unable to land a single takedown and still defeated Pereira handily is remarkable.
All the takedowns -- whether they land or not -- served to keep Pereira off balance. It limits the damage he can inflict at distance, which is the way you go about beating him.
If even one or two of those takedowns connected, the result would have looked even more lopsided than it did.
The key to this fight from Pereira's standpoint is going to be the ability to generate increased offense on the feet. Ankalaev is one of the best in the sport at not getting hit. He averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes (0.80), yet he somehow only absorbs 2.46 significant strikes per minute. That's the type of number you would typically see from a grappler that spends a ton of time every single fight in top position.
Everything we saw in the first fight would lead you to believe Ankalaev deserves to be favored, and probably by a decent amount. He may just simply be a bad matchup for Pereira.
All that said, I can't help but think Pereira is being way undervalued here. Imagine thinking a handful of months ago that you would be able to get him in your lineup for $7,300 at the tail end of 2025? Sign me up.
At even money or close to it, this is an Ankalaev pick all day long. When there's $1,600 difference in salary between the two, I'm willing to roll the dice that Pereira and his team, led by former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Glover Teixeira, will come up with a more impactful game plan this time around.
UFC 320 PICK: Pereira
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UFC 320 Co-Main Event Pick - Bantamweight Championship
(C) Merab Dvalishvili (20-4-0) v. Cory Sandhagen (18-5-0)
DK Salaries: Dvalishvili ($9,300), Sandhagen ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Dvalishvili (-390), Sandhagen (+280)
Dvalishvili lost back-to-back fights in December 2017 and April 2018. He's won 13 in a row since. Included in that stretch are wins over Sean O'Malley (twice), Umar Nurmagomedov, Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo and Jose Aldo. He's successfully defended his 135-pound title twice and will look to make it three in a row here against Sandhagen. Merab would be a UFC Hall of Famer if he decided to step away tomorrow.
Sandhagen won three straight from September 2022 to August 2023, against fair, but non-elite competition in Rob Font, Marlon Vera and Yadong Song. He lost to Nurmagomedov in August 2024 and defeated Deiveson Figueiredo via TKO this past May. I'm not a huge fan of a fighter getting a title shot after one win, but the UFC was running out of quality options at bantamweight. Dvalishvili has largely cleaned out the top tier of the division.
The story regarding Merab has been the same for years. His cardio is the best in the sport. He sets a pace that no opponent can match. Like Khabib Nurmagomedov back in his prime, I've long maintained the only way to beat him is via flash knockout. You simply aren't going to outpoint him over the course of five rounds. Umar started strong, yet by the time it was over, the fight was a total rout because one guy has endless energy and the other simply does not.
I have time for Sandhagen. For starters, at 5-foot-11, he's huge for the bantamweight division. He's five inches taller than Dvalishvili. Yet, that means less than nothing because there's no chance Merab is going to fight him at distance. He's going to crash the pocket over and over and fight from in tight.
Merab is averaging 5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes. In his last five appearances, he's landed a grand total of 34 takedowns and no fewer than five in any single fight.
Sandhagen has been pinned to the mat for long stretches in the past. He gave up two takedowns to Figueiredo and five to Umar. He's athletic and moves well, so I can see him hanging in there early on, yet those shots will serve to tire him out, and Merab will eventually be able to take advantage.
Like Pereira in the main event, Sandhagen qualifies as a close-your-eyes and bet on talent play given is cheap salary. The difference is, I think in this instance, Merab's grappling game will prove to be too much. The fight will probably see the final bell, and you're then asking Cory to outpoint a guy with arguably the best cardio in the history of the sport. I don't see it.
UFC 320 PICK: Dvalishvili
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Light Heavyweight
Jiri Prochazka (31-5-1) v. Khalil Rountree (15-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Prochazka ($8,500), Rountree ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Prochazka (-185), Rountree (+140)
From an action standpoint, this is about the best fight the UFC can put on in any division. From a personal standpoint, it's the one I'm looking forward to most on the entire card. Both men, oddly enough, are coming off a victory over former 205-pound champion Jamahal Hill.
Prochazka has fought just seven times in the five-plus years since his July 2020 company debut. Three of those fights have been for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. His only two losses are to Pereira (both in title fights), and all seven of the bouts have ended via stoppage. Prochazka may not be on quite the same level as the top guys in the division, but he's not far off.
Rountree is a difficult guy to figure out. The one thing I know for sure is that he's better than I originally gave him credit for. Khalil is 6-1 in his past seven fights. Four of the six have come via knockout, but the bouts have been against the likes of Dustin Jacoby, Chris Daukaus, Karl Roberson, and end-of-the-line Anthony Smith. Regular readers of this column know I don't think much of Hill, so even that one, while impressive on the surface and the best win of the bunch, doesn't carry a ton of weight in my eyes. The one loss was a title fight against Pereira in which Rountree was beaten from pillar to post the entire bout, but still managed to hang out until there was 28 seconds left, showing one of the greatest displays of toughness we've ever seen inside the Octagon.
My complaints regarding Prochazka are two-fold. First, he has no way of generating offense if his power shots aren't landing. I don't expect that to be a problem here, but it has been against other opponents. He will very occasionally mix in a takedown against a pure striker, but that's about it.
Secondly, Jiri simply doesn't defend himself at an adequate level on the feet. It's more of an extreme belief in his durability than anything else. Prochazka absorbs 5.7 significant strikes per minute on average. Rountree is by no means a defensive wizard, but even he eats just 4.24 per minute on average. Prochazka can get away with it against the Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes' of the division, but it isn't going to work against Pereira, etc.
There's a case to be made for Rountree as an underdog play simply because both of these men are going to be throwing bombs the entire fight and either could crumble in an instant, but I value the success Jiri has had against better competition. I would really like to see Rountree pick up a truly notable win before investing.
UFC 320 PICK: Prochazka
Featherweight
Josh Emmett (19-5-0) v. Youssef Zalal (17-5-1)
DK Salaries: Emmett ($6,800), Zalal ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Emmett (+310), Zalal (-440)
Emmett will be 41 years of age next March and has lost three of four dating back to February 2023. The setbacks have come against Lerone Murphy, Ilia Topuria and Yair Rodriguez, so he's been fighting the best of the best, but this recent run has essentially torpedoed any chance Emmett may have had of pushing his way back towards the top of the 145-pound rankings.
Zalal is a great story. Released from the UFC following a four-fight winless streak (0-3-1) from October 2022 to August 2022, he went and picked up three straight first-round stoppage wins on the regional scene to earn another chance with the company. Zalal returned in March 2024 and has won all four fights since, including three via submission. That said, his best victory during this recent stretch is over a washed up Calvin Kattar. Emmett, even at his advanced age, represents a much stiffer test.
Emmett has seven career wins via knockout, and he's always possessed legitimate fight-altering power for a smaller fighter. His volume is so-so at times, and his footwork and head movement don't appear anywhere near as sharp these days as in his heyday, but he can close the show in an instant if given an opportunity.
Zalal is the better grappler of the two. He's averaging 2.09 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's very tricky on the mat and very big for the division. At 5-foot-10, he has four inches in height and two inches in reach on Emmett.
Youssef feels like a guy that keeps a high pace, but his striking numbers are very low-volume because he's often grappling. Zalal lands just 3.07 significant stirkes on average per minute. The flip side is that he absorbs just 1.8 per minute. For comparison's sake, Emmett gets his 4.46 times per minute.
This is a tricky one.
The improvements Zalal made during his time away appears to be legitimate and I'm a believer. That said, just because he was able to overwhelm the likes of Jack Shore, Jarno Errens, Billy Quarantillo and late-career Kattar doesn't mean he's going to have any success against a long-time division standout like Emmett.
The DK salaries and Vegas odds for this fight are quite frankly, shocking. In some ways I get it. Emmett is an aging fighter, and Zalal has looked like a world beater since returning. Personally, I would have this thing lined at like Zalal (-190)? There's just way too much value on the Emmett side for him not to be the pick. He's a good fighter.
UFC 320 PICK: Emmett
Middleweight
Abus Magomedov (28-6-1) v. Joe Pyfer (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($7,500), Pyfer ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (+190), Pyfer (-260)
Pyfer is six fights into his UFC run, and thus far has shown far more good than bad. He's 5-1 with the company with four stoppage wins (three knockouts, one submission) on his resume. He has a win over Kelvin Gastelum and the lone setback was a five-round main event loss to Jack Hermansson in which Pyfer dominated early before badly gassing. More on that in a minute.
Magomedov fought in countless promotions, including a four-fight PFL run, before arriving in the UFC in September 2022. He knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus in 19 seconds that evening before suffering back-to-back defeats to Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho. He has since rebounded with three straight wins over Michel Pereira, Brunno Ferreira and Warlley Alves. Magomedov has value, but he turned 35 years of in early-September, and I a hard have time seeing much in the way of a ceiling.
For a round-plus, Pyfer looks like one of the most dominant fighters in the division. The power is significant. He's extremely athletic and moves well for a guy with a somewhat limited professional resume. I'm always going to have concerns regarding Pyfer's ability to fight a five-round pace following the Hermansson performance, but he should be fine here, particularly against a guy in Magomedov that isn't known for his cardio and output himself.
This looks like an obvious spot for Magomedov to try to implement his wrestling game. He's averaging 2.65 takedowns per 15 minutes and has racked up 11 takedowns over his past three fights. I wouldn't call Abus a technical wrestler, but he moves well and has good hips for a big man. It may not be an effective strategy early on, but if Magomedov can survive the Round 1 flurry that will be coming from Pyfer, he may be able to take advantage of his tiring opponent later one.
Pyfer is the pre-flop pick, but the cardio issues are real. If Magomedov can somehow get out of Round 1, he becomes very live. I might try to avoid this fight on a loaded card like this. There would seem to be a ton of potential outcomes.
UFC 320 PICK: Pyfer
OTHER BOUTS
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan (15-5-0) v. Andre Muniz (24-7-0)
DK Salaries: Shahbazyan ($9,100), Muniz ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Shahbazyan (-290), Muniz (+215)
UFC 320 PICK: Shahbazyan
Bantamweight
Chris Gutierrez (22-6-2) v. Farid Basharat (13-0-0)
DK Salaries: Gutierrez ($6,700), Basharat ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Gutierrez (+300), Basharat (-430)
UFC 320 PICK: Basharat
Featherweight
Daniel Santos (13-2-0) v. Joo Sang Yoo (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($8,300), Yoo ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-140), Yoo (+110)
UFC 320 PICK: Yoo
Women's Bantamweight
Macy Chiasson (11-4-0) v. Yana Santos (16-8-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Chiasson ($8,600), Santos ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Chiasson (-200), Santos (+155)
UFC 320 PICK: Chiasson
Bantamweight
Patchy Mix (20-2-0) v. Jakub Wiklacz (16-3-2)
DK Salaries: Mix ($9,000), Wiklacz ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Mix (-280), Wilkacz (+210)
UFC 320 PICK: Mix
Welterweight
Punahele Soriano (11-4-0) v. Nikolay Veretennikov (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Soriano ($8,800), Veretennikov ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Soriano (-235), Veretennikov (+180)
UFC 320 PICK: Soriano
Welterweight
Ramiz Brahimaj (12-5-0) v. Austin Vanderford (13-2-0)
DK Salaries; Brahimaj ($7,000), Vanderford ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Brahimaj (+200), Vanderford (-265)
UFC 320 PICK: Vanderford
Women's Flyweight
Veronica Hardy (9-5-1) v. Brogan Walker (7-4-0)
DK Salaries: Hardy ($9,600), Walker ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Hardy (-620), Walker (+400)
UFC 320 PICK: Hardy
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
