UFC Abu Dhabi DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Abu Dhabi: Whittaker vs. de Ridder. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Robert Whittaker (27-8-0) v. Reinier de Ridder (20-2-0)
DK Salaries: Whittaker ($8,400), de Ridder ($7,800)
Betting Odds: Whittaker (-145), de Ridder (+120)
Whittaker has been one of the best middleweights in the world for the better part of a decade, but he's fallen on hard times of late, going just 3-3 in his past six fights dating back to February 2022. Of course, those three setbacks came against the current UFC Middleweight Champion (Dricus Du Plessis), a future title challenger (Khamzat Chimaev) and arguably the best 185-pounder of all time (Israel Adesanya). Rob keeps himself in peak condition and should still have plenty of gas left in the tank, but he'll be 35 years old this coming December, and this feels like a fight he has to have if he wants to truly remain in the title picture.
A former two-division champion in ONE, de Ridder arrived on the scene last November. He looked pretty dreadful in a submission win over Gerald Meerschaert in his debut, but since the calendar turned to 2025, he has submitted Kevin Holland and knocked out Bo Nickal. It looks great on the surface, but a deeper dive reveals some concerns. We have a long history that Holland is neither big enough nor strong enough to succeed at 185 pounds. De Ridder simply outmuscled him before choking him out. Nickal, well, he just may not be as good as we all originally thought. That's not to take anything away from RDR, but Whittaker is without a doubt his stiffest test to date.
I have been thoroughly unimpressed with De Ridder's striking game. He has some pop, and he's tough, but he took a beating on the feet at the hands of Meerschaert, one of the weakest stand-up fighters in the division. Holland and Nickal combined to land 19 significant strikes. Whittaker has posted 100-plus twice in his UFC career. Heck, he had 95 significant strikes in his last three-round fight which went the distance (against Paulo Costa in February 2024). Set to turn 35 years old himself in September, RDR needs to focus on head and foot movement and not let Rob get into a groove on the feet.
This fight is going to come down to whether or not de Ridder can consistently land takedowns. He wasn't able to get Nickal to the mat on three attempts, but he landed two on Holland in less than a round and five on Meerschaert. Whittaker did give up two takedowns in his Chimaev loss, but Khamzat is probably the best and most explosive wrestler in the division, at least early in fights. For his long career, Whittaker's takedown defense is an excellent 81 percent. He shows excellent balance and has long been an underrated athlete.
I see no situation in which RDR is going to be able to outwork Whittaker on the feet. If that's indeed the case, de Ridder is going to have to not only rack up a boatload of control time, but also do legitimate damage to his opponent when he has the positional advantage. It seems like an awful big ask when you take into account how good Rob has been at remaining upright and controlling the pace of his fights over the course of his long career.
At lot of the favorite on this card appear to be ridiculously overpriced. Whittaker at $8,400 seems quite fair.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Whittaker
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Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Petr Yan (18-5-0) v. Marcus McGhee (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Yan ($9,300), McGhee ($6,900)
Betting Odds: Yan (-375), McGhee (+295)
Yan lost four of five from March 2021 to March 2023, but it's important to note who those setbacks came against. Two were against Sterling, one via DQ and the other via split decision. Then he dropped a split decision to Sean O'Malley before getting routed by current UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili. He has rebounded of late, scoring back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Yadong Song and Deiveson Figueiredo. Yan remains an easy top-five 135-pounder, if not better, and he's going to have to prove it here, because this is a fight where he has nothing to gain and everything to lose, at least from a rankings perspective.
Let me start this by saying I'm a huge fan of McGhee. Yes, he just turned 35 years old. Yes, he has all of 11 professional fights under his belt. And yes, his lone notable win was against Jonathan Martinez his last time out, but this is a guy that has passed every test to date with flying colors. He trains with an elite team at the MMA Lab in Arizona and looks better every single time we see him. We're going to find out awful quickly how good he really is in this one.
Yan is another guy with a remarkably well-rounded game. He has shown an ability to keep a crazy pace, landing a ton of volume on the feet. His significant strike totals in his last eight fights are as follows: 121, 99, 75, 58, 62, 149, 96, 194. He's displayed the ability to make a real impact, even in defeat.
That said, McGhee has shown the ability to match that pace, albeit against obviously much lower-level competition. He's averaging 6.06 significant strikes landed per minute and he's doing it without being reckless. A lot of guys with numbers that high are constantly engaging themselves in brawls and paying zero attention to the defensive side of the game. Not McGhee. He's fights smart and calculated.
McGhee hasn't shown much in the way of offensive wrestling, but he has yet to be taken down in his first four UFC bouts. He's an inch taller than Yan and will have a two-inch edge in reach, so he has some things going for him if he's able to remain upright.
Yan has to be the pick given the experience levels of both he and McGhee, but his DraftKings salary is way too high, as are the Vegas odds in his favor.
I'm expecting a strong showing from Marcus, much better than the numbers would lead you to believe he is capable of putting together. I think this ends up being a very close fight and one in which McGhee raises his stock despite the setback.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Yan
Middleweight
Shara Magomedov (15-1-0) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($9,600), Barriault ($6,600)
Betting Odds: Magomedov (-650), Barriault (+450)
Five fights into his UFC run, I'm fairly sure I have yet to pick a Magomedov fight correctly. He won his first four bouts, including two via knockout. His best win during that stretch was against Armen Petrosyan, so it's not as if Shara was getting by the best the middleweight division has to offer. He got a bump up in competition against Michael Page in February and looked awful, dropping a unanimous decision and landing just 38 significant strikes in the process. Magomedov wasn't the first opponent to be perplexed by Page's unique style and won't be the last, but I truly expected more in what was a 15-minute kickboxing match.
Barriault looked like a release candidate following a three-fight stretch from January to November 2024. He lost all three, including the last two via first-round knockout. The UFC gave him another chance against a mentally checked-out Bruno Silva in his native Quebec in May and he scored an 87-second knockout win. Barriault absorb no damage in the fight, which allows him to return to action here roughly 10 weeks later.
Magomedov has fast hands and legitimate power. He's very effective in terms of stringing together combinations and not surprisingly, he's at his best when he's pushing forward. He hesitated in a major way in the Page fight, letting MVP get off first and allowing him to control the tone of the bout. It ended up being his undoing. I've said before that I thought his brawling tendencies would catch up to Shara sooner rather than later, but it was actually his inactivity against Page which was his undoing.
Barriault is very physically strong, with the typical power and durability issues that often come along with a bigger fighter. I don't trust his fight IQ in the least. He's the kind of guy that is going to step in the Octagon and do his thing and let the chips fall where they may. There's no game planning or changing his approach depending on the type of opposition he's facing. It's a skill set that typically never ages well, and Barriault turned 35 years of age in February.
Shara had a ton of first-round knockouts on the regional scene, but his two stoppages in the UFC came late in Round 2 and midway through Round 3. He seems to have to build up as the fight progresses, and there's a real chance Barriault is the more dangerous man here early on.
I understand why Magomedov is a massive favorite. Barriault is going to go in there and engage him in the brawl he is seeking. Marc-Andre also tends to get considerably less effective as his fights go on, so his win condition is probably first-round knockout.
I'll take Magomedov simply because he's displayed excellent durability to date, and I doubt Barriault can win a decision, but this is a pass for me altogether.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Magomedov
Bantamweight
Bryce Mitchell (17-4-0) v. Said Nurmagomedov (18-4-0)
DK Salaries: Mitchell ($8,300), Nurmagomedov ($7,900)
Betting Odds: Mitchell (-125), Nurmagomedov (+105)
Mitchell has fallen of hard times of late, struggling both inside and outside of the Octagon. Inside, he's 2-3 his past five fights, with all three defeats coming via stoppage. He was granted his much-publicized bout against Jean Silva in April and lost via second-round submission. Mitchell is a talented guy, but he's had very little success against quality competition and has become arguably the most disliked fighter in the entire company due to multiple inflammatory remarks he has made in the past.
It's hard to believe, but Nurmagomedov has been with the UFC since July 2018. He's 7-3 with the company, but like Mitchell, he's primarily defeated lower-level competition and has had a tough time in the rare instances in which the company has attempted to push him. At 33 years old, Said is running out of time to make a consistent impact in a loaded bantamweight division.
I've long maintained that I don't think Mitchell is improving much, if at all, in recent years. He has never shown any desire to relocate to a major camp in hopes of getting better training on a daily basis. Instead, Mitchell continues to workout in his native Arkansas and essentially train himself. He has some friends and family members stop by to help him, but he's definitely not getting the quality work in that he would if he was at American Top Team or City Kickboxing or the MMA Lab or any of those elite, high-level gyms.
Nurmagomedov is the rare Dagestani that isn't known for his grappling game. He averages just 1.01 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a woeful 15 percent takedown accuracy. He's a stand-up fighter, albeit one that is low volume on the feet. He's never landed more than 65 significant strikes in any UFC bout and even that came in his debut, against Justin Scroggins back in July 2018.
Bryce's striking is well below average to the point he's a liability in prolonged stand-up exchanges. He looks uncomfortable on the feet, which is one of the main reasons he rarely wins a fight if he isn't able to get his wrestling game going.
I give Mitchell credit because he knows where his bread is buttered. He averages 3.27 takedowns per 15 minutes despite completing only 36 percent of his attempts. That means even if the first or second shot fails, there's going to be a third and fourth try coming.
Bryce's style of fighting is subjective, especially in the eyes of the judges, because he typically doesn't do much even when he has his opponent pinned to the mat. I think Said is a solid matchup for him, but don't be surprised if this turns into more of a struggle than it needs to be, particularly on the scorecards.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Mitchell
Other Bouts
Flyweight
Asu Almabayev (21-3-0) v. Jose Ochoa (8-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: N/A
Odds: Almabayev (-110), Ochoa (-110)
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Ochoa
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov (30-10-0) v. Bogdan Guskov (17-3-0)
DK Salaries: Krylov ($8,700), Guskov ($7,500)
Odds: Krylov (-190), Guskov (+160)
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Krylov
Welterweight
Muslim Salikhov (21-5-0) v. Carlos Leal (22-6-0)
DK Salaries: Salikhov ($6,800), Leal ($9,400)
Odds: Salikhov (+360), Leal (-475)
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Leal
Bantamweight
Davey Grant (16-7-0) v. Da'Mon Blackshear (17-7-1)
DK Salaries: Grant ($7,200), Blackshear ($9,000)
Odds: Grant (+260), Blackshear (-330)
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Grant
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Women's Strawweight
Amanda Ribas (13-6-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Ribas ($8,600), Ricci ($7,600)
Odds: Ribas (-180), Ricci (+155)
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Ricci
Light Heavyweight
Ibo Aslan (14-2-0) v. Billy Elekana (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Aslan ($8,900), Elekana ($7,300)
Odds: Aslan (-260), Elekana (+210)
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Aslan
Featherweight
Mohammad Yahya (12-5-0) v. Steven Nguyen (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Yahya ($7,000), Nguyen ($9,200)
Odds: Yahya (+260), Nguyen (-330)
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Nguyen
Heavyweight
Martin Buday (15-2-0) v. Marcus Almeida (5-1-0) (aka Marcus Buchecha)
DK Salaries: Buday ($7,100), Buchecha ($9,100)
Odds: Buday (+240), Buchecha (-300)
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Almeida
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
