This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Roman Dolidze (9-1-0) v. Kyle Daukaus (11-2-0, 1NC)
Roman Dolidze - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Kyle Daukaus - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Unless Daukaus makes a mistake, I do not see how Dolidze wins this fight. Daukaus is the better overall fighter with advantages anywhere the fight goes. However, this fight could end up a lower-scoring decision without a finish or a bunch of takedowns and control time. Daukaus is safe for cash and GPP.
UFC Austin Pick: Daukaus
Phil Hawes (11-3-0) v. Deron Winn (7-2-0)
Phil Hawes - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
Deron Winn - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Winn has a considerable disadvantage in size, and I think it really hurts him in this one. If he can find success with takedowns, he could come up with a sizable upset, but I do not see that happening. Hawes has immense power in his hands, and the longer this fight stays on the feet, the more likely he lands a knockout. I like Hawes in cash and GPP contests.
UFC Austin Pick: Hawes
Eddie Wineland (24-15-1) v. Cody Stamann (19-5-1)
Eddie Wineland - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 24 wins
Cody Stamann - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Wineland is approaching the end of his career, and this fight could end up being his swan song. Stamann will be better anywhere this fight goes, but he will sport a significant advantage on the mat. I expect a finish if Stamann finds early success with takedowns and tires Wineland early. Stamann is safe for cash and GPP contests, as I think he nails value this week.
UFC Austin Pick: Stamann
Maria Oliveira (12-5-0) v. Gloria de Paula (6-4-0)
Maria Oliveira - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Gloria de Paula - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect the majority of the fight to play out on the feet if not all of it. De Paula will have a decent advantage on the mat if she can find success with takedowns. However, if the fight stays on the feet, I favor Oliveira's power to overwhelm de Paula. She can sometimes be wild with her striking, but she is a legitimate threat on the feet with seven knockouts. De Paula is the safer play for cash, but I love Oliveira as a punt for GPP contests.
UFC Austin Pick: Oliveira
Ricardo Ramos (15-4-0) v. Danny Chavez (11-4-1)
Ricardo Ramos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
Danny Chavez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Another pretty straightforward fight. Chavez's only real path to victory is a mistake from Ramos. Ramos, the younger fighter, will be better everywhere and should dictate how the fight unfolds. However, he likely misses value at his price point without chaining takedowns or an early finish. Still, Ramos makes an excellent play for cash contests.
UFC Austin Pick: Ramos
Court McGee (22-10-0) v. Jeremiah Wells (10-2-0, 1NC)
Court McGee - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 21 wins
Jeremiah Wells - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 74" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: On paper, this fight is as close as it gets. McGee will see a slight advantage in technical striking and volume, while Wells will feature a significant advantage in power and grappling. If McGee avoids eating the big shot and his takedown defense holds up, he should be able to win a decision with volume. Wells can finish this fight anywhere and has 15 minutes to do so as McGee is no longer a finisher. McGee tends to score low in wins, so for DFS purposes, I want little to none of him. On the other hand, I love Wells for cash and GPP contests, as a finish will crush value.
UFC Austin Pick: Wells
Jasmine Jasudavicius (7-1-0) v. Natalia Silva (12-5-1)
Jasmine Jasudavicius - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
Natalia Silva - Height: 5'4" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Jasudavicius will have a considerable edge in wrestling, and I expect her to turn to it early and often, looking to keep Silva on her back. Silva should have the edge on the feet, especially if she mixes in her kicks. However, she tends to throw wild and a bit carefree, making it easy for her to be taken down. Silva does have some slick grappling and is an elite armbar specialist, so any mistake from Jasudavicius will cost her. I think the odds for this fight should be closer. Jasudavicius looks to be the better cash play, with Silva making an excellent dog play for GPP contests.
UFC Austin Pick: Jasudavicius
Adrian Yanez (15-3-0) v. Tony Kelley (8-2-0)
Adrian Yanez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Decent grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
Tony Kelley - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Decent grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect 15 minutes of striking and a potential Fight of the Night bonus. Both guys throw high volume and should be going back and forth on the feet. A takedown could be mixed in here and there, but I do not think much of this fight plays out on the mat. Yanez is the better overall fighter, and his technical striking and counter ability should carry him to a win on the scorecards. However, a lower score will likely come out of this fight, so I would only use either fighter for GPP.
UFC Austin Pick: Yanez
Julian Marquez (9-2-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (11-4-0)
Julian Marquez - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Gregory Rodrigues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight has potential Performance of the Night honors written all over it. Both guys work at a high pace and can finish the fight anywhere. I would favor Marquez on the feet and in cardio. Rodrigues will sport an advantage in volume and on the mat. He is also the better overall athlete. I would use one or the other in GPP contests, as a finish is likely. Marquez makes an excellent GPP punt.
UFC Austin Pick: Marquez
Damir Ismagulov (23-1-0) v. Guram Kutateladze (12-2-0)
Damir Ismagulov - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 23 wins
Guram Kutateladze - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect most of this fight to play out on the feet, where Ismagulov will have the edge in volume and power. He will have a significant advantage if he chooses to take the fight to the mat. Kutateladze can keep the fight close on the feet and has a little power himself but lacks the fight experience that Ismagulov brings to the fight. I like Ismagulov to win a lower-scoring decision. Both guys would be better off in GPP contests.
UFC Austin Pick: Ismagulov
Joaquin Buckley (14-4-0) v. Albert Duraev (15-3-0)
Joaquin Buckley - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 76" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Albert Duraev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Buckley's best path to victory will be by knockout, as power is his only advantage in this fight. Duraev has a slight edge in volume but a significant edge on the mat, and I expect him to relentlessly chain takedowns looking for a submission. An early finish combined with multiple takedowns and control time will smash his value, making him a solid play for cash and GPP contests.
UFC Austin Pick: Duraev
Tim Means (32-12-1, 1NC) v. Kevin Holland (22-7-0, 1NC)
Tim Means - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 24 finishes in 32 wins
Kevin Holland - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 18 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: Means enters with a significant reach disadvantage and will likely be looking for takedowns from the bell. If he can work inside the pocket, he should also be able to keep things close on the feet. Holland will be looking to use his reach advantage to fight from range and land something hard to knock Means out. He has also been working on his ground game, so I expect if he gets taken down, he will be able to get up far better than he has in the past. Holland should roll here and is safe for cash and GPP contests.
UFC Austin Pick: Holland
Donald Cerrone (36-16-0) v. Joe Lauzon (28-16-0)
Donald Cerrone - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 36 wins
Joe Lauzon - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 26 finishes in 28 wins
DFS Perspective: Lauzon has not fought since October 2019, well over two years ago. It is hard to trust anyone who has been out of the ring that long. I think he is live for an upset finish in the first round, but it should be all Cowboy after that. He has far better cardio, more volume and has been far more active. It is hard to trust them for cash contests because neither fighter has been successful over their last 4-5 fights, but I favor Cowboy to come out and take the win.
UFC Austin Pick: Cerrone
Calvin Kattar (23-5-0) v. Josh Emmett (17-2-0)
Calvin Kattar - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 13 finishes in 23 wins
Josh Emmett - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should be an absolute banger. Emmett has had a knockdown in seven consecutive fights and has massive power in his hands. Kattar also carries power but throws a ton of volume and is tough as they come. I expect Kattar to have the edge everywhere and only needs to avoid getting stunned by Emmett. Kattar should be in every lineup in five-round fights. Emmett can be used for a GPP dart throw for that knockout chance.
UFC Austin Pick: Kattar
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
