This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 290 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Kamuela Kirk (11-5-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (11-1-0)
Kamuela Kirk - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
Esteban Ribovics - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: The card starts with a high-tempo fight that likely ends within the first two rounds. I expect both fighters to have their moments and for this to come down to who protects better. Ribovic should have a slight edge on the feet, while Kirk has a slight lean on the mat. Ribovic applies pressure at a high pace, which should be the difference in this fight.
UFC 290 Pick: Ribovics
Shannon Ross (13-7-0) v. Jesus Aguilar (8-2-0)
Shannon Ross - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Jesus Aguilar - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a striker vs. grappler type of fight. Ross has the edge in striking, while Aguilar has the advantage on the mat. Neither guy has shown well in the UFC, but I would give Ross the overall edge in competition. I expect Ross to continue showing solid takedown defense and win this fight on the feet.
UFC 290 Pick: Ross
Cameron Saaiman (8-0-0) v. Terrence Mitchell (15-2-0)
Cameron Saaiman - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Terrence Mitchell - Height: 5'10" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Mitchell will make his UFC debut after a string of 11 straight wins by finish in various promotions in Alaska. He is a dangerous fighter but draws his most challenging opponent to date. Saaiman looks to continue his impressive start to the UFC and will likely have a considerable edge on the feet. I expect him to have the takedown defense and scrambling ability to avoid being submitted by the newcomer and win this on the feet.
UFC 290 Pick: Saaiman
Vitor Petrino (8-0-0) v. Marcin Prachnio (16-6-0)
Vitor Petrino - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Marcin Prachnio - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Prachnio will need a quick knockout to win this fight. Petrino should have the advantage everywhere the fight goes, particularly on the mat. I expect this fight to go much like his debut, with him chaining takedowns and winning on the scorecards.
UFC 290 Pick: Petrino
Edgar Chairez (10-4-0) v. Tatsuro Taira (13-0-0)
Edgar Chairez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Tatsuro Taira - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect little from debuting Chairez. Taira should make quick work and end this one early.
UFC 290 Pick: Taira
Jimmy Crute (12-3-1) v. Alonzo Menifield (13-3-1)
Jimmy Crute - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Alonzo Menifield - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: A rematch was scheduled for these two after their previous fight ended in a very close draw. Menifield will again have a significant edge with power, while Crute has the edge everywhere else. If Crute avoids the power, he should win this handily and score well.
UFC 290 Pick: Crute
Yazmin Jauregui (10-0-0) v. Denise Gomes (7-2-0)
Yazmin Jauregui - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Denise Gomes - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a close fight between up-and-coming prospects. I expect most of the fight to take place on the feet, where Jauregui will have an edge in volume, speed and power. Gomes's best bet would be to secure a takedown and look for control. The fight is potentially closer than the odds indicate, but Jauregui likely wins by knockout.
UFC 290 Pick: Jauregui
Jack Della Maddalena (14-2-0) v. Josiah Harrell (7-0-0)
Jack Della Maddalena - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Josiah Harrell - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Harrell is stepping in a short notice to take on a rising star in Maddalena. I expect Maddalena to end this in the first round and potentially within the first 60 seconds, hitting the quick-win bonus on DraftKings.
UFC 290 Pick: Maddalena
Robbie Lawler (29-16-0) v. Niko Price (15-6-0)
Robbie Lawler - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 29 wins
Niko Price - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This is Lawler's retirement fight, and although he has had an excellent career, I expect it to end with him getting knocked out. Price has been on a slide but still has plenty left in the tank. He should control the pace and ultimately end this early.
UFC 290 Pick: Price
Bo Nickal (4-0-0) v. Valentine Woodburn (7-0-0)
Bo Nickal - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 4 wins
Val Woodburn - Height: 5'8" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Woodburn is another fighter making a short-notice debut. While he will have a chance any time this fight is on the feet, he likely gets dominated on the mat. I expect Nickal to shoot immediately and end this via submission sometime in the first round.
UFC 290 Pick: Nickal
Dan Hooker (22-12-0) v. Jalin Turner (13-6-0)
Jalin Turner - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
Dan Hooker - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: Given the takedown defense of both men, I anticipate most of this fight taking place on the feet. Both fighters will have their moments, which likely comes down to who does more damage. Turner has a slight reach advantage and would be wise to stay out of the pocket. Hooker has always been a dangerous striker and will be looking to keep close. This fight will be close, but I expect the rising star in Turner to pull this one out.
UFC 290 Pick: Turner
Robert Whittaker (24-6-0) v. Dricus Du Plessis (19-2-0)
Robert Whittaker - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 14 finishes in 24 wins
Dricus Du Plessis - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: I will be one of the few people on Du Plessis in this one. Whittaker is a fantastic fighter with a well-rounded game. He is a sniper on the feet with an extremely high IQ, solid defense and great wrestling. Undoubtedly, he is the rightful favorite and has plenty of ways to win. I would favor him more in a five-rounder. Du Plessis has been impressive during his rise to this point, with a solid ground game and powerful striking. His big issue has been a suspect gas tank, which was partly due to breathing issues, which have apparently been fixed via surgery. I expect him to come out hot and apply constant pressure, keeping Whittaker on his back foot. He will get picked apart if he cannot do that, but I am leaning the dog for the considerable upset.
UFC 290 Pick: Du Plessis
Brandon Moreno (21-6-2) v. Alexandre Pantoja (25-5-0)
Brandon Moreno - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 21 wins
Alexandre Pantoja - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: Moreno and Pantoja will face off for the third time in their fight careers, and while Pantoja has beaten him both times, this fight should be even closer. They have similar overall games, but Pantoja is quicker, while Moreno has better movement. I expect this to be close until one makes a mistake. I have Pantoja by the slimmest of margins.
UFC 290 Pick: Pantoja
Alexander Volkanovski (25-2-0) v. Yair Rodriguez (15-3-0)
Alexander Volkanovski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 25 wins
Yair Rodriguez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a thrilling fight and potentially one that goes five rounds. Rodriguez has shown an incredible improvement to his overall game and offers a real threat to Volkanovski. However, Volkanovski is the greatest 145er for a reason, and I expect him to handle business as usual. He should have the edge everywhere but grappling, but if Ortega could not submit him, I do not see Rodriguez doing it.
UFC 290 Pick: Volkanovski
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 290 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
