This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 290 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $750k UFC 290 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight Championship
(C) Alexander Volkanovski (25-2-0) v. (IC) Yair Rodriguez (16-3-0)
DK Salaries: Volkanovski ($9,200), Rodriguez ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Volkanovski (-400), Rodriguez (+300)
Odds to Finish: -115
It's been the case for quite a while, but Volkanovski's unanimous decision loss to Islam Makhachev in a lightweight title fight this past February proved beyond a shadow of a doubt he is one of the best fighters in the world today. Moving up a weight class and going against a guy many considering to be one of the top pound-for-pound competitors in the world, Volkanovski more than held his own and even thrived at times. This will be his fifth defense of his 145-pound championship.
There was absolutely no reason for the UFC to create an interim belt at featherweight considering how active the champion is, but they did so anyway, with Rodriguez submitting Josh Emmett in the second round to win it on the same card in which Volkanovski lost to Makhachev. That said, Yair has more than earned his shot. He is 4-1 (1NC) in his past half-dozen bouts, with the lone setback coming against perennial contender Max Holloway.
There isn't a single area in the sport in which Volkanovski doesn't excel. He has power, is an underrated wrestler and possesses one of the very best gas tanks around. He could fight the same pace for ten rounds if he had to.
It's worth noting Yair will represent an entirely different challenge. For starters, he's huge. Checking in at 5-foot-11, he is five inches taller than the champion, although it's worth noting the reach is identical. Rodriguez is extremely unorthodox and impossible to train for. He throws a ton of strikes from awkward angles and relies heavily on kicks to be successful.
The grappling edge should favor the champion. Volk is one of the strongest pound-for-pound fighters on the roster. I expect him to be able to out-muscle Rodriguez in tight and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he goes with a wrestling-heavy game plan given how talented Yair is at distance.
It's difficult to try to breakdown a Rodriguez fight from a technical standpoint because so much of his success comes as the result of situations that are impossible to predict.
That said, I doubt it matters. Volkanovski's body of work is so impressive that he, like prime Jon Jones at light heavyweight, Khabib Nurmagomedov before he retired and Ronda Rousey in her hey day, is the pick at 145 pounds until someone beats him. He'll most likely lose eventually because most everyone does, but it's impossible to predict when it will happen, so just keep playing the odds until proven otherwise. Volk is that good.
THE PICK: Volkanovski
Co-Main Event - Flyweight Championship
(C) Brandon Moreno (21-6-2) v. Alexandre Pantoja (25-5-0)
DK Salaries: Moreno ($8,700), Pantoja ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Moreno (-200), Pantoja (+175)
Odds to Finish: -140
This will be a rematch of a May 2018 fight in which Pantoja won via unanimous decision. It happened so long ago that I don't put any stock whatsoever in the result.
Moreno emphatically put an end to his rivalry with Deiveson Figueiredo this past January, winning the fourth bout between the two and unifying the 125-pound title in the process. I'm the first to admit I was far too low on Moreno's potential. He's gotten legitimately better as he's aged, but I never saw him possessing this type of durability or improving his striking so drastically.
Pantoja enters having won three in a row and four of five. He is fresh off dominant, back-to-back submission victories over Alex Perez and Brandon Royval, both of which earned him a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus. He deserves a title shot in what is a very thin division, particularly at the top.
This is a difficult fight to break down. Moreno is bigger, entering with a two-inch edge in height and a three-inch edge in reach. I'd argue Pantoja has more power, but Moreno does well in wild brawls and isn't afraid to stand-and-trade with his opposition.
The grappling numbers are similar. Moreno averages 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Pantoja is at 1.37. Both defend the takedown at an identical 67-percent clip.
The one thing that can't be measured is the heart of Moreno. It's something I try not to put a ton of stock in, but we've seen Brandon power through difficult situations time and time again, and while it doesn't have any impact on my pick, it's something that is certainly worth keeping in the back of your mind.
This appears to be a classic case of the champion being overvalued. Moreno deserves to be favored. He's entering as with the gold and has steadily improved in a major way the past several years. Despite that, I still don't think there's a $1200 salary gap between the two. Pantoja certainly possesses the all-around game to pull a potential upset.
I would have lined the salaries/odds for Moreno at about $8,300 and a -150 favorite. That's enough savings to swing me in Pantoja's direction.
THE PICK: Pantoja
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker (25-6-0) v. Dricus Du Plessis (19-2-0)
DK Salaries: Whittaker ($9,100), Du Plessis ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Whittaker (-400), Du Plessis (+300)
Odds to Finish: -180
Regular readers of this column know there is no bigger fan of Whittaker than myself. "Bobby Knuckles" remains, in my humble opinion, the second-best middleweight in the world behind 185-pound king Israel Adesanya. The problem for Whittaker is that the two have fought twice, with Izzy taking fairly lopsided unanimous decisions both times. The UFC isn't going to be rushing to book a third fight even if Whittaker deserves it.
This is a massive fight for du Plessis. The 29-year-old is 5-0 in the UFC with four of the wins coming via stoppage. Dricus has defeated decent competition, the likes of Derek Brunson, Darren Till and Brad Tavares, but certainly nobody on the level of Whittaker.
Du Plessis is difficult to get a read on. He's wildly reckless on the feet and always appears as if he's exhausted. He often breathes through his mouth during fights and appears to be gasping for air at all times, but he has said this is done intentionally.
Whittaker, on the other hand, is in control at all times. He has power, excels at stringing together combinations and is an excellent and underrated wrestler. Du Plessis is averaging 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 0.82 for Whittaker, but I'm much rather take Rob in a grappling contest, especially considering Dricus' 50 percent takedown defense.
When push comes to shove, I simply don't think you can fight as recklessly as du Plessis does and consistently live to tell about it, especially against high-end competition.
Whittaker has fought Adesanya (twice), Stephen Thompson, Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, Yoel Romero (twice), Jacare Souza, etc.. The competition gap between the two is real.
Maybe Dricus will surprise us and succeed in drawing Whittaker into a brawl and take him out as a result, but I imagine it's much more likely Rob stays calm and composed and figures out a way to take advantage of his opponent's aggressiveness, and most importantly, use it against him.
Whittaker is that good, and I don't see how you can take Dricus here given the skill sets and resumes of the two.
THE PICK: Whittaker
Lightweight
Jalin Turner (13-6-0) v. Dan Hooker (22-12-0)
DK Salaries: Turner ($8,800), Hooker ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Turner (-250), Hooker (+200)
Odds to Finish: -285
These two were scheduled to fight at UFC 285 in March before Hooker withdrew due to a hand injury. Turner stayed on the card, dropping a tight split decision to Mateusz Gamrot.
Hooker may have saved his job with a knockout win over Claudio Puelles last November at Madison Square Garden. He'd lost four of five entering that fight, although it's worth noting the four setbacks came against Makhachev, Arnold Allen, Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler. Hooker is now 33 years of age, and we have plenty of evidence to suggest he isn't on the same level as the top guys in the world in a loaded 155-pound division, making a fight against a rising star like Turner all the more important.
Turner fought pretty well in the Gamrot fight despite the setback. He was the much better striker, particularly at distance, but he gave up four takedowns on a dozen attempts which turned the tide of the bout. Jalin has now been taken down in five of his past seven fights, although Hooker doesn't wrestle much, averaging less than a takedown (0.85) per 15 minutes.
By far the most interesting aspect of the fight is the size differential between the two. Hooker, at 6-foot, is one of the bigger lightweight's on the roster, but he's giving up three inches in height and two inches in reach to Turner. Hooker has had durability issues in the past, and we've also seen him pinned to the mat for long stretches at a time.
The bottom line here is that I still find it difficult to trust Hooker. He's good, and I'm not overly concerned about him given the level of competition his recent defeats came against, but a win over Puelles doesn't tell us a whole lot about how he will fare against a much better opponent in Turner.
Toss in the size edge, his recent durability issues and how good Turner has been, and this becomes an easy pick. That said, Hooker is tough is nails and his salary is cheap so I have no issues throwing him in as a "punt" play to fill out a DK lineup.
THE PICK: Turner
Middleweight
Bo Nickal (4-0-0) v. Val Woodburn (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: TBD
Vegas Odds: TBD
Odds to Finish: TBD
Nickal was due to fight Tresean Gore here before the latter withdrew early during fight week.
Arguably the greatest prospect the sport has ever produced, the 27-year-old Nickal -- a two-time winner on Dana White's Contender Series -- made his official UFC debut in early-March and submitted Jamie Pickett in just under three minutes. A three-time Division I National Champion in wrestling at Penn State, Nickal is obviously a world-class athlete.
A 29-year-old with seven pro fights under his belt, Woodburn is undefeated, with five knockouts and two decisions on his resume. Each of Woodburn's bouts have come with the "Combat Night Pro" promotion in Florida. He was then going to appear on Dana White's Contender Series this summer. I openly admit my knowledge of Woodburn ends right there.
All the prior evidence suggests Nickal is going to be a future star. He's obviously behind where he needs to be experience in mixed martial arts given his age, which makes fights like this so important, even if the result doesn't seem to be in doubt.
People are going to be upset the UFC is giving Nickal what would be considered "lesser" competition (that would have been the case even if Gore fought), but there have been countless cases (Sage Northcutt, Paige VanZant, etc.) of the company rushing a fighter and paying for it over the long run. Of course, none of those fighters had the amateur credentials of Nickal.
Gore has only six professional fights under his belt (three in the UFC) and was 4-2, so it's theoretically possible Woodburn is a stiffer test for Bo, especially given his power. I'm fairly certain it will make no difference.
Nickal's DK salary against Gore was due to be $9,800. That's about the highest I can ever recall seeing. He was a -1400 favorite on the betting line, and I imagine that number will only rise against Woodburn.
When all is said and done, we're going to once again be talking about who to feed to Bo next.
THE PICK: Nickal
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler (29-16-0, 1NC) v. Niko Price (15-6-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Lawler ($7,300), Price ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Lawler (+200), Price (-250)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Price
Welterweight
Jack Della Maddalena (14-2-0) v. Josiah Harrell (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Della Maddalena (-1200), Harrell (+725)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Della Maddalena
Women's Strawweight
Yazmin Jauregui (10-0-0) v. Denise Gomes (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Jauregui ($9,300), Gomes ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Jaregui (-400), Gomes (+300)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Jaregui
Light Heavyweight
Jimmy Crute (12-3-1) v. Alonzo Menifield (13-3-1)
DK Salaries: Crute ($8,200), Menifield ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Crute (-120), Menifield (+100)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Menifield
Catch Weight (130 pounds)
Tatsuro Taira (13-0-0) v. Edgar Chairez (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Taira ($9,600), Chariez ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Taira (-1000), Chariez (+600)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Taira
Light Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (8-0-0) v. Marcin Prachnio (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Petrino ($9,000), Prachnio ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Petrino (-300), Prachnio (+240)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Petrino
Bantamweight
Cameron Saaiman (8-0-0) v. Terrence Mitchell (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Saaiman ($9,400), Mitchell ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Saaiman (-500), Mitchell (+360)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Saaiman
Flyweight
Shannon Ross (13-7-0) v. Jesus Aguilar (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Ross ($7,600), Aguilar ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Ross (+145), Aguilar (-175)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Aguilar
Lightweight
Kamuela Kirk (12-5-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Kirk ($7,700), Ribovics ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Kirk (+145), Ribovics (-175)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Kirk
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 76 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
