This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
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The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Mexico City card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Muhammadjon Naimov (10-2-0) v. Erik Silva (9-2-0)
Muhammadjon Naimov - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Erik Silva - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Silva is now 36 and likely has little left to offer after making his UFC debut so late in his career. Naimov is the opposite. He is 29 and already has two solid UFC wins on his record. His most recent win was very impressive, and I expect that to carry into this fight. Naimov should be better everywhere, applying a suffocating fighting style to keep Silva from doing much. He is an excellent play for DFS.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Naimov
Victor Altamirano (12-3-0) v. Felipe dos Santos (7-1-0)
Victor Altamirano - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
Felipe dos Santos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Altamirano seems to struggle against high levels of competition, which is precisely what dos Santos is. Dos Santos took on a top-10 fighter in his debut and nearly stole the win from him. However, he came up short and now lands a fight he has a high chance of winning. He will have the edge everywhere, particularly on the mat, and is one of the best cash-game plays on the slate.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Dos Santos
Luis Rodriguez (15-2-0) v. Denys Bondar (19-4-0)
Luis Rodriguez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Denys Bondar - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds for this fight should be further apart, with Bondar being the favorite. Rodriguez has some impressive wins on his record but has also struggled with some low-level fighters. Bondar has lost both of his UFC fights, but I think his overall body of work is better, and he should be better everywhere. Either way this fight goes, someone is likely to get finished, making it a must-play for DFS.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Bondar
Claudio Puelles (12-3-0) v. Fares Ziam (14-4-0)
Claudio Puelles - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Fares Ziam - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Puelles looked solid in his first three UFC fights and then completely fell on his face against top-tier competition in his last fight. He could not get the fight to the mat and showed the glaring weakness that is his stand-up. Ziam has won four of his last five fights but has yet to record a finish in the UFC. This will be close at times, but Ziam's defense should be good enough to avoid getting submitted, and he will have the edge on the feet. I would not expect a high score to come out of this fight.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Ziam
Edgar Chairez (10-5-0) v. Daniel Lacerda (11-5-0)
Edgar Chairez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Daniel Lacerda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: (Rematch from September 2023 early stoppage) Lacerda is getting his fifth fight in the UFC, with the first four ending with him getting finished. He is a kill-or-be-killed fighter, and that will continue in this one. Chairez has an excellent chance to give Chairez his fifth consecutive loss and is one of the best plays on the card.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Chairez
Jesus Aguilar (9-2-0) v. Mateus Mendonca (10-2-0)
Jesus Aguilar - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Mateus Mendonca - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I would not be surprised to see this fight end within the first two rounds, with Aguilar getting his hand raised. He should be slightly better everywhere but does face a significant reach disadvantage. Mendonca is training with a former UFC champ, so I will not be surprised if he wins this fight. I expect most of the fight to take place on the mat and for Aguilar to record a solid DFS score.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Aguilar
Cristian Quinonez (18-4-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (17-5-0)
Cristian Quinonez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Raoni Barcelos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This is close to a 50-50 fight to me. Quinonez is nine years younger but has not been ultra-impressive in the UFC. Barcelos is now 36 and has lost four of his last five. However, those losses have come against much tougher competition than Quinonez. If this stays on the feet, I would give the edge to Quinonez, but Barcelos should have a considerable advantage on the mat. This will be a tight match, but Barcelos is the play.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Barcelos
Manuel Torres (14-2-0) v. Chris Duncan (11-1-0)
Manuel Torres - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Chris Duncan - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a good test for both fighters, and someone will likely get knocked out in this one. Duncan will likely have an edge on the mat if he chooses to take it there, but Torres is no slouch there. I would give Torres the edge on the feet, particularly since Duncan tends to eat a lot of big shots. I like Torres to keep it going with another big win.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Torres
Yazmin Jauregui (10-1-0) v. Sam Hughes (8-5-0)
Yazmin Jauregui - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Sam Hughes - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Hughes's only chance in this fight is to get Jauregui to the mat and keep her there. Otherwise, she is likely to get knocked out. Jauregui has more power, speed and volume on the feet and should make quick work of Hughes if this stays on the feet. However, an early finish in the first or second is likely for her to hit value.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Jauregui
Raul Rosas Jr. (8-1-0) v. Ricky Turcios (12-3-0)
Raul Rosas Jr. - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Ricky Turcios - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Rosas continues to show why he is in the UFC but draws his toughest test to date in Turcios. He will have an edge on the mat and flashed some nice power in his last fight. Turcios is not a huge finisher, but he is as tough as they come and sports an excellent all-around game. Rosas will be the obvious choice for most, but Turcios could have his way if this stays on the feet. However, Turcios was taken down seven times in his last fight, which is a major red flag against Rosas.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Rosas Jr.
Daniel Zellhuber (14-1-0) v. Francisco Prado (12-1-0)
Daniel Zellhuber - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Francisco Prado - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This battle of one-loss fighters should primarily remain on the feet for as long as it lasts. Zellhuber has a massive edge in reach, allowing him to keep the fight at range. Prado will look to crash the pocket and land one of his massive hooks but will likely have a lot of issues doing so. Prado is a live dog, given the knockout power, but I expect Zellhuber's range to be the difference.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Zellhuber
Yair Rodriguez (18-4-0) v. Brian Ortega (15-3-0)
Yair Rodriguez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
Brian Ortega - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Ortega has not fought since these two last fought in July of 2022, so expectations should be quelled a bit. Rodriguez knocked him out in that fight, and I do not see a whole lot changing in this one. Ortega is always live, but I expect Rodriguez to be better everywhere. He is one of my favorite plays on the card.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Rodriguez
Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) v. Brandon Royval (15-7-0)
Brandon Moreno - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 21 wins
Brandon Royval - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch from 2020. Both guys seem to get better and better with every fight, making this a must-watch. The last loss for each is the current champ, so this fight likely has title implications. Moreno is slightly better everywhere and the rightful favorite. However, Royval has dangerous power and a phenomenal guillotine, so he will be live at all times.
UFC Mexico City Pick: Moreno
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
