This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC remains at the Apex on Saturday, April 29 for UFC Vegas 72. A bantamweight bout headlines the card, as Yadong Song takes on Ricky Simon.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Ricky Simon (20-3) vs. Yadong Song (19-7-1)
Ricky Simon and Yadong Song were set to be last week's co-main event but were pushed back a week to headline this event. Even though it's now five rounds, I still like Simon to get the win.
Simon has been on a roll since losing back-to-back fights to Urijah Faber - Song's coach - and Rob Font. The American has a relentless pace and is a great wrestler, but it has been his striking that has improved a ton, as he has been hurting opponents as of late.
Song, meanwhile, is a great striker, but the problem has been his cardio when opponents mix in the wrestling. That's exactly what Simon will do.
Early on, I expect Song to have success on the feet. As the fight goes on, though, I expect Simon -- who averages 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes -- to get timely takedowns and control Song on the ground. This should be a close fight, but I expect Simon to out-wrestle Song -- similar to the Cody Stamann fight -- and get a decision or possibly a late submission win.
UFC Vegas 72 Best Bet: Ricky Simon (-115)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Cody Brundage (8-3) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (8-2)
I don't understand the odds in this one, as Vieira is a sizeable -240 favorite in a fight that I think he will have a hard time getting to the mat.
Brundage and Vieira were booked to face last November, but Vieira pulled out with an injury. Since then, Brundage took a short-notice fight and got knocked out by Michal Oleksiejczuk, which perhaps is why the odds are so high.
Vieira is far from a KO artist, however, and Brundage is a very good wrestler. I think Vieira will have a hard time getting Brundage to the ground. Then, on the feet, Brundage is miles better than Vieira and has KO power. Furthermore, Vieira gasses badly in fights, so if Vieira doesn't get the first-round submission, Brundage is in a good position to win.
To me, Vieira should be about a -140 favorite, so to get +200 on Brundage makes this a play.
UFC Vegas 72 Best Bet: Cody Brundage (+200)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (9-0) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (20-8-1)
Heavyweight fights usually do not go the distance, but this one I think will, so to get plus-money on it is solid.
Cortes-Acosta is 2-0 in the UFC, and both of his wins came by decision against Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman -- two fighters that have been finished plenty of times in the UFC. The Dominican native is a great striker, but he often plays with his food and dances in the Octagon and isn't much of a finisher.
Rogerio de Lima, meanwhile, is a durable guy who does have KO power, but that usually is in the first round only, and we have seen Cortes-Acosta take some good shots. To me, this fight will be very similar to Rogerio de Lima vs. Blagoy Ivanov, which went the distance. Both guys can take the shots and slow down as the fight goes on with less pop on the punches.
UFC Vegas 72 Best Bet: Cortes-Acosta-Rogerio de Lima goes the distance (+165)
Weight Classes: Women's Bantamweight & Middleweight
Stephanie Egger (8-3) vs. Irina Alekseeva (4-1)
Caio Borralho (13-1) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (18-5)
For my parlay, I'm taking Stephanie Egger and Caio Borralho to each get a win Saturday night.
Egger is taking on UFC newcomer Irina Alekseeva, who fought once in Bellator and then signed with the UFC, which was a bit of a surprise. However, the Russian doesn't impress me all that much, while Egger has been pretty solid in the UFC, as she's 3-1 in her last four. Ultimately, this is a low-level fight, but the Swiss native is a very good grappler, and I expect her to take Alekseeva down and get a submission win in the first or second round.
In the other leg, I'm taking Caio Borralho to get the win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in the co-main event. Borralho is one of the top prospects in the entire sport, as he is very well-rounded. Oleksiejczuk, meanwhile, fades as the fight goes on and is really a first-round KO or bust in this spot.
Borralho has a great chin and can mix in his wrestling well, so I expect him to play it safe early on and then take over to win a clear-cut decision or late stoppage.
UFC Vegas 72 Best Bet: Stephanie Egger & Caio Borralho parlay (-145)
UFC Vegas 72 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best bets for this weekend's UFC Vegas 72 event:
- Ricky Simon (-115)
- Cody Brundage (+200)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta-Marcos Rogerio de Lima goes the distance (+165)
- Stephanie Egger & Caio Borralho parlay (-145)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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