This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Toronto, Ontario, Canada for the first pay-per-view of 2024, as UFC 297 takes place on Saturday, January 20. The main event sees the middleweight title up for grabs, as Sean Strickland takes on Dricus Du Plessis.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Movsar Evloev (17-0) vs. Arnold Allen (19-2)
Opening up the main card is a pivotal featherweight scrap between Movsar Evloev and Arnold Allen, and I'm backing Evloev to get the win and remain undefeated.
Allen is a solid striker, but Evloev is relentless with his cardio and wrestling, which will be the difference here. On the feet, Evloev also lands more significant strikes per minute than Allen does, while averaging 4.71 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Although Evloev is just 50 percent on his takedown accuracy, Allen has 76 percent takedown defense, though the latter hasn't fought a wrestler like Evloev in years. This fight will go the distance, but Evloev will be able to grind out the rounds and get a clear-cut decision to remain undefeated.
UFC 297 Best Bet: Movsar Evloev (-198)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Sean Strickland (28-5) Dricus Du Plessis (20-2)
Sean Strickland stunned many back in September when he upset Israel Adesanya to become the new middleweight champion, but I'm expecting his reign to end right here.
Strickland throws a ton of volume on the feet, as he averages 5.82 significant strikes per minute, but does absorb 4.24, which is a problem against du Plessis. The South African is landing 6.95 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.79.
Strickland doesn't have much power, and instead, just looks to jab his opponent to win a decision. However, on the feet, Du Plessis is super aggressive and will be able to land the better shots and even possibly put out Strickland, who we saw get knocked out against Alex Pereira.
Even if du Plessis doesn't get the KO, he should be able to win the rounds with his damage and become the new middleweight champion.
UFC 297 Best Bet: Dricus Du Plessis (+114)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Mike Malott (10-1-1) vs. Neil Magny (28-11)
Mike Malott looks to be the next great Canadian MMA star, and he should pick up a stoppage win over Neil Magny at UFC 297.
Malott is a great finisher, as he can finish anyone on the ground or the feet, and Magny looks to be on the decline here. On the feet, Malott lands 4.21 significant strikes per minute and can end any fight with one punch.
Malott should be able to hurt Magny on the feet, and either put him out with strikes, or use his above-average grappling ability to hop on a choke and get a submission. Regardless, Malott will pick up the biggest win of his career and do so by stoppage Saturday.
UFC 297 Best Bet: Mike Malott ITD (-190)
Weight Classes: Strawweight & bantamweight
Gillian Robertson (12-8) vs. Polyana Viana (13-6)
Brad Katona (13-2) vs. Garrett Armfield (9-3)
For my parlay, I'm taking a pair of Canadians to get the win in Gillian Robertson and Brad Katona.
Robertson is set to face Polyana Viana, which is a good style matchup for her. The Canadian is a great grappler, while Viana has struggled on the ground, as she has a takedown defense of just 43 percent. Robertson should be able to take this fight to the ground and either get a ground-and-pound TKO or submission.
In the other leg, Brad Katona is back in the UFC after winning TUF for the second time. Katona is solid on the feet, but he can also use his wrestling to grind opponents out. Katona should be able to clinch Armfield against the fence and use his wrestling to slow down Armfield's offense and edge out a lackluster decision win.
UFC 297 Best Bets: Gillian Robertson & Brad Katona (+108)
UFC 297 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 297 best bets:
- Movsar Evloev (-198)
- Dricus Du Plessis (+114)
- Mike Malott ITD (-190)
- Gillian Robertson & Brad Katona parlay (+108)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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