Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Vegas 108: Taira vs. Park
The UFC returns to the Apex for 12 more fights we can analyze to find profit. We'll break down each bout across three platforms, including a sneaky underdog against a BJJ champion, and a prospect looking for his first win in the Octagon. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Austin Bashi ($9,600)
Bashi got a tough draw in his UFC debut, but not many in the lower half of the featherweight division are going to be able to scramble as well as Christian Rodriguez. This includes newcomer John Yannis, who is a serviceable kickboxer, but stands heavy on his lead leg. Bashi should be able to take full advantage, securing positions and putting up a big score.
Rafael Estevam ($9,500)
Estevam will wrestle from bell to bell, as evidenced by the fact that he landed 11 takedowns in his win over Jesus Aguilar. Felipe Bunes is an explosive fighter with an active submission game from his back, but his upright posture should allow "Mapaca" to bring this fight where he wants it. While Estevam is another wrestler who looks primed to put up a big score, Bunes' active guard, combined with Estevam's tendency to get tired, could make a sprinkle on the Brazilian's submission prop (+1100) worth a look.
Tresean Gore ($7,300)
I have a hard time trusting Rodolfo Vieira against strong wrestlers, as the Brazilian struggles mightily when he is unable to bring the fight to the floor. Gore features good jabs and body work to go along with his work on the mat. This could lead to a frustrated and tired Vieira shooting desperation attempts as "Mr. Vicious" picks him off from range.
Karol Rosa ($8,600)
I expect Rosa to get back to her wrestling in this one, as Nora Cornolle is an experienced kickboxer and should be ready to poke holes in Rosa's volume striking game. Cornolle was able to submit Hailey Cowan in her last bout, but Rosa's BJJ blackbelt should help her take advantage of the French fighter's 50 percent takedown defense rate.
Tatsuro Taira ($9,200)
Taira will meet a unique challenge in Hyun Sung Park, who walks his opponents down and has a ton of power for the division. While that could put a knockout in play, Taira is excellent at keeping range and should be able to hit reactive takedowns on his advancing opponent. Park took this fight on short notice after Amir Albazi was pulled from the event, so it shouldn't take long before the style and pace of Taira leaves him out of gas.
Rinya Nakamura ($9,300)
Nakamura got a prospect lesson from Muin Gafurov, who used his agility and power to keep his Japanese counterpart off balance. The 30-year-old should have an easier time with Nathan Fletcher, a fellow wrestler who has had trouble with grapplers in the past. Every fighter has a puncher's chance, but I expect the strength of Nakamura to be a big factor in putting his first career loss in the rearview.
Piera Rodriguez ($8,700)
Rodriguez is someone to build lineups around at this price, as "La Fiera" marches across the cage to throw strikes and take her opponent down. This will be a particular problem for Ketlen Souza, who likes to plant her feet and throw big strikes. Rodriguez put up 113 points in her win over Josefine Knutsson, and a similarly dominant performance could be in the offing here.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Danny Silva OVER 44.5 Significant Strikes, Elves Brener OVER 46.5 Significant Strikes, and Neil Magny UNDER 40.5 Significant Strikes
Kevin Vallejos is a devastating striker who will hit the body hard, but the oddsmakers may be overlooking Silva, who is agile, defensively responsible, and throws crisp combinations. While I'm not picking "El Puma" to get the victory, he should be able to mix in his wrestling and survive long enough to clear this total.
Brener has shown incredible toughness in his UFC career, which makes me question his line here against Esteban Ribovics. While the 27-year-old will aggressively pursue takedowns, Ribovics will be in his face throwing volume for 15 minutes, which should make it difficult for Brener to find his entries. This will force a striking match that puts us far ahead of our total.
I find it unlikely that Magny will want to strike with Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, who has made a career out of being fast and powerful. "The Haitian Sensation" will instead look to smother his opponent whenever possible, attempting to wrestle and do damage in the clinch. Magny will have significant advantages in height and reach, but he has never been a range striker, making it difficult to see how this will help him achieve his total.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Andrey Pulyaev Wins via KO/TKO (+210)
Pulyaev got stuck in clinch situations against Christian Leroy Duncan, so it's tempting to assume that a more natural grappler in Nick Klein will be able to make more of those opportunities. The difference is athleticism, as Klien plods forward after his opponents, and Pulyaev is a sharp counterstriker with power. Pulyaev should be able to angle off the fence against Klein and will likely find his knockout when "Blue Collar" tries to close the distance.
Mateusz Rebecki Wins via KO/TKO (+200)
Opportunistic submissions helped Chris Duncan in both of his UFC fights, as he is a slow-footed striker who needs to force grappling exchanges to have success. This will be tough against Rebecki, who is incredibly strong and is a tricky submission artist in his own right. This is one fight where the Russian will want to keep it on the feet, as I expect he will march Duncan down and get the finish in short order.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 108 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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