A loaded 13-fight card awaits us on Saturday, which gives prospective bettors and DFS players plenty of opportunities to cash in. We'll cover every fight across four platforms, including a smooth grappler getting overlooked in favor of a debutante and a kickboxer quickly gaining a reputation for taking heads. Our betting lines this week come from the Rotowire MMA odds page and are accurate as to the post date of this article
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Pat Sabatini ($9,000)
Damon Jackson is a tricky grappler in his own right but is often at a strength advantage in this division, which has led to "The Leech" being dominated in exchanges by fighters like Mirsad Bektic. While he has just two KO/TKO victories to his name, Sabatini is a strong fighter who throws hard. Jackson has shown himself to be hittable for as long as the fight is on the feet, so don't be surprised if the fight ends similarly to Jackson's bout with grappler Ilia Topuria.
Tony Gravely ($7,600)
I don't often bring up point totals, but it's difficult to ignore an underdog who has an average of 93.3 DraftKings points in five UFC fights (one loss). Javid Basharat stuffed all three takedowns attempted by Trevin Jones, but Gravely's strength and overall wrestling prowess will be a massive step up, and Bashrat likely won't avoid clinch situations as a judoka. He can also be hit, as he pressures opponents with his hands low, and Gravely gave us all a taste of the power he has in his hands before a controversial loss to Nate Maness in 2021.
Gillian Robertson ($8,500)
Robertson is nothing if not relentless, and we have seen Agapova wear down in the cage. "The Savage" will be looking for takedowns from the opening bell, and Agapova is too comfortable playing off of her back for me to feel comfortable picking her against someone with such good control from top position. "Demonslayer" has sharp and powerful hands, and Robertson has been known to get overwhelmed by prolific strikers, but I don't think Roberson will need to struggle to get the fight into her world.
Trey Ogden ($6,800)
Daniel Zellhuber's length and devastating clinch game don't justify the exorbitant salary there, particularly when he has struggled with committed wrestlers in the past. Ogden is also a competent striker who mixes targets well and can throw with volume. That clinch work that is a hallmark of Zellhuber's game may also ensure that Ogden remains in close quarters throughout the course of the fight which is where he does his best work.
Louis Cosce ($7,100)
Trevin Giles has never been able to get out of his own way in the UFC. Despite having significant speed or technique advantages in a number of his bouts, "The Problem" has incurred all four of his professional losses in the Octagon by stoppage. These losses generally come down to a misstep that costs Giles, and Cosce is far too physically strong and hits too hard to get away with mistakes.
Anthony Hernandez ($8,700)
"Fluffy" is known to stand and bang but has had two fights in the organization that were grapple-heavy, including his eight-takedown performance against Josh Fremd in April. He would do well to repeat this strategy against Marc-Andre Barriault, who will look to smother Hernandez and wear him down in the clinch. Hernandez will have the BJJ advantage as well, meaning he does not have to engage in the kind of fight "Powerbar" specializes in.
Bets to Consider
Chidi Njokuani wins via KO/TKO (+220)
The former Bellator fighter has put on a show in his new organization, finishing both opponents in the first round. Gregory Rodrigues is a BJJ ace, but he always seems hesitant to use his ground game, opting instead to slug it out with the opposition. While he has gotten better defensively, he still goes through periods where he forgets to move his head. This may as well be a death sentence against a powerful, accurate kickboxer like Njokuani.
Cory Sandhagen wins via Decision (+115)
Sandhagen has some highlight-reel finishes in the Octagon, but Yadong Song is incredibly tough, having been finished just once in 27 career fights. Yadong will enter this fight with three-inch disadvantages in both height and reach, which should allow Sandhagen to use his tricky footwork to keep the Chinese fighter at bay and pick him apart for five rounds.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 60 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire Sports Betting section.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Joe Pyfer UNDER 5.0 Minutes of Fight Time and Tanner Boser OVER 7.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Pyfer's heavy hands and grappling prowess have resulted in quick finishes and eight of Alen Amedovski's 11 fights have ended in the first round. The Macedonian fighter swings hard and enters the pocket with his hands down, which has been the cause of his two KO/TKO losses in the Octagon thus far. Neither man is all that interested in defense, which should make for a short night regardless of who gets their hand raised.
Boser came into the organization with a reputation for going to the scorecards but has finished his last three victories by KO/TKO. Still, he should have a tough time finishing Allan Nascimento, who has only been knocked out once in nine career fights. "Yogi Bear" will have his hands full as well, as the BJJ specialist will be looking to submit a man who will come into the fight with a 70 percent takedown defense rate.
Aspen Ladd UNDER 47.5 Significant Strikes and Loma Lookboonmee OVER 67.5 Significant Strikes
Sara McMann has had the same game plan throughout her long career in MMA: use her Olympic-level wrestling to ground and submit her opponent. She is also vulnerable to being put in bottom position, and Ladd does her best work when she can rain down her ferocious ground-and-pound. Oftentimes, having two wrestlers in a contest leads to a striking match, but ground fighting is so integral to the games of these competitors that I find it hard to believe they will want to do much else.
Lookboonmee is a Muay-Thai striker who has recently added a wrestling component to her game, but I doubt she will find much need to deviate from what she does best against Denise Gomes, who won't have a particular size advantage and tends to wing big shots from the pocket. This should allow Loma to keep range, work her counter shots, and run up her significant strike totals
Bill Algeo OVER 82.5 Strikes and Andre Fili UNDER 53.5 Strikes
Algeo is one of the most active fighters in the division, landing a whopping 5.73 strikes per minute. Fili is a dynamic and powerful kickboxer but can get stuck letting his opponent dictate pace. "Senor Perfecto" should be able to control the center of the Octagon, which could lead to one-way traffic in terms of consistent output.
