This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, August 12 for UFC Vegas 78. The main event sees 10th-ranked welterweight Vicente Luque take on former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Luana Santos (5-1) vs. Juliana Miller (3-2)
Luana Santos makes her UFC debut against Julianna Miller, who won TUF, and I like Santos quite a bit in this spot.
In her first fight after winning TUF, Miller took on Veronica Hardy and was dominant over all three rounds, as Hardy was able to take her down at will and control her, as she went 4-for-4 on takedowns.
Santos, meanwhile, is a solid grappler, and I expect the Brazilian to follow Hardy's game plan and take Miller down at will, eventually winning a clear-cut decision.
UFC Vegas 78 Best Bet: Luana Santos (-162)
Weight Class: Middleweight
A.J. Dobson (6-2) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (6-3)
A.J. Dobson and Tafon Nchukwi are both fighting their job here, and to me, this is a pick'em fight. To get plus-money on Dobson ultimately makes it a play.
Nchukwi is returning to middleweight after losing to Jun Yong Park in May of 2021. Since then, he moved up to light heavyweight and went 1-2, suffering back-to-back losses to Azamat Murzakanov and Carlos Ulberg (both by knockout).
Although Dobson is 0-2 in the UFC, he did have two tough opponents in Armen Petrosyan and Jacob Malkoun. Both Dobson and Nchukwi are there to be hit, and I worry about Nchuwki's cardio and chin now that he is cutting even more weight.
Dobson isn't much of a heavy hitter, but I do think he can out-wrestle Nchuwki and hold him down to win a decision.
UFC Vegas 78 Best Bet: A.J. Dobson (+120)
Weight Class: Weltrweight
Vicente Luque (21-9-1) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (32-14)
The main event of UFC Nashville is a banger, as Vicente Luque takes on Rafael dos Anjos. I'm going against the grain in this one and taking the fight to go the distance at plus money.
Outside of Luque being finished last time out by Geoff Neal, he has been extremely durable -- the only other time he was finished was in 2013 on the regional scene. Dos Anjos, meanwhile, can also take a punch, as he was finished in the fifth round at 155lbs against Rafael Fiziev, but before that, hadn't been finished since 2016 -- not bad considering he had fought the likes of Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, Leon Edwards and Paul Felder.
After Luque took a full year off, I expect him to be more patient while dos Anjos will try and wrestle him and control him on the ground. Ultimately, I'm banking that the year off has helped Luque's chin, and RDA is already super durable, so I expect this one to hit the scorecards.
UFC Vegas 78 Best Bet: Vicente Luque-Rafael dos Anjos goes the distance (+120)
Weight Classes: Heavyeight & Bantamweight
Martin Buday (12-1) vs. Josh Parisian (15-6)
Marcus McGhee (7-1) vs. JP Buys (9-5)
For my parlay, I'm taking Martin Buday and Marcus McGhee to get their hands raised Saturday night.
Buday is taking on Josh Parisian, and this is a great matchup for Buday to improve to 4-0 in the UFC. Inside the Octagon, Buday has proven he has the cardio to go three rounds, and against Parisian, he should be able to wear on him in the clinch to get a decision. Buday has 100 percent takedown defense, so should be able to keep it standing. On the feet, he is the better striker, and his clinch game will lead to him tiring out Parisian and getting the decision.
The other leg is Marcus McGhee taking on JP Buys, who's 0-3 in the UFC and has been knocked down eight times in three fights. Safe to say I have worries about his chin. McGhee, meanwhile, is a solid striker and also has great takedown defense. That will be key against Buys, who will look to grapple.
On the feet, I expect McGhee to be too much for Buys and eventually drop him. From there, he'll either finish him off with a submission or ground-and-pound TKO.
UFC Vegas 78 Best Bet: Martin Buday & Marcus McGhee parlay (-116)
UFC Vegas 78 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 78 best bets:
- Luana Santos (-162)
- A.J. Dobson (+120)
- Vicente Luque-Rafael dos Anjos goes the distance (+120)
- Martin Buday & Marcus McGhee parlay (-116)
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