With the Premier League finally coming out of its Coronavirus pandemic suspension next Wednesday, I thought it would be a good time to work on rest-of-season projections to help those who are looking to make late runs in their season-long leagues, hold onto their top spots or who are starting new leagues for the congested schedule. This felt like a very good idea until I actually started doing the work, but that wasn't going to deter me from trying.
There are obviously plenty of obstacles when trying to project what is going to happen, or in actual terms, provide median outcomes for future events, but the biggest issue in all of it was estimating how much each player was actually going to be on the pitch. Projecting substitutions on a week-to-week basis is enough of a hassle, but we're now confronted with five possible subs per match, plus a condensed schedule that will force lineup rotation much more than we're used to. But again, this would not deter me from trying.
Below is a breakdown of my outfield player projections for the remaining 92 Premier League matches of the 2019/20 season, specifically using the standard scoring rules on Fantrax, one of the more popular draft fantasy Premier League games. I am not going to break down my entire process, but I will say that I attempted to project each game on its own and then distribute the totals to each individual player based on their projected minutes. For example, I