Given the amount of standings points needed to win a competitive dynasty league, you will likely need a quality fantasy catcher in order to win your league. However, if you are not a legitimate contender in 2020, you can safely ignore the position. Once you're ready to win, you can go get a Yadier Molina type for a prospect outside the top 100. I recommend treating good fantasy catchers like closers or old starters like Charlie Morton. They are very valuable to the best teams in each dynasty league, but they should not be on rebuilding rosters.
Proximity really matters with catching prospects because the road to the majors is often long and arduous, given the defensive rigors of the position. If a catcher shows flaws at Low-A or High-A, I am very willing to cut bait, because I know they are still several years away from the majors and now there is an added element of performance risk. Coming off his 2019 season, Francisco Alvarez would be an easy top-50 prospect if he played any other position. However, since he's a catcher, the risk is amplified.
Offensive upside really matters with catching prospects, but defense matters just as much. Omar Narvaez was the ONLY catcher to get 350 PA last year despite being a significant negative behind the plate, according to FanGraphs WAR.
As you can see, there's a pretty strict cutoff for most big-league teams in terms of the level of defensive futility they are willing to
Given the amount of standings points needed to win a competitive dynasty league, you will likely need a quality fantasy catcher in order to win your league. However, if you are not a legitimate contender in 2020, you can safely ignore the position. Once you're ready to win, you can go get a Yadier Molina type for a prospect outside the top 100. I recommend treating good fantasy catchers like closers or old starters like Charlie Morton. They are very valuable to the best teams in each dynasty league, but they should not be on rebuilding rosters.
Proximity really matters with catching prospects because the road to the majors is often long and arduous, given the defensive rigors of the position. If a catcher shows flaws at Low-A or High-A, I am very willing to cut bait, because I know they are still several years away from the majors and now there is an added element of performance risk. Coming off his 2019 season, Francisco Alvarez would be an easy top-50 prospect if he played any other position. However, since he's a catcher, the risk is amplified.
Offensive upside really matters with catching prospects, but defense matters just as much. Omar Narvaez was the ONLY catcher to get 350 PA last year despite being a significant negative behind the plate, according to FanGraphs WAR.
As you can see, there's a pretty strict cutoff for most big-league teams in terms of the level of defensive futility they are willing to tolerate from their top catcher. While Gary Sanchez, Wilson Ramos and Willson Contreras rate as slight negatives, they also happen to be among the very best hitters at the position. Additionally, Christian Vazquez and Roberto Perez don't ever get the opportunity to have breakout 2019 seasons if they aren't adding a ton of value defensively. Defense doesn't always matter in fantasy, but it really matters with catching prospects. This could change with robot umps, which, incidentally, I am not in favor of.
TIER ONE
1. Adley Rutschman, Orioles
This one was easy. Maybe if Rutschman and Bart switched future home ballparks, they'd be in the same tier, but that aspect pushes it over the edge for Rutschman. He has a plus hit tool and plus power and could be the best defensive catcher in the game. He will also draw a ton of walks. This is pretty straightforward.
TIER TWO
2. Joey Bart, Giants
3. Sean Murphy, Athletics
I think Bart and Murphy are extremely similar from a skills standpoint. I expect both to hit around .270 with 25 HR in their peak seasons. Bart gets the edge in the rankings because of Murphy's injury history.
TIER THREE
4. Daulton Varsho, Diamondbacks
5. Francisco Alvarez, Mets
6. Ryan Jeffers, Twins
Varsho's roto upside is very appealing -- he could hit 15 HR with 15 SB and a high batting average. However, I'm a bit more cautious with my ranking of him because his defensive future is so uncertain. He's a below-average defensive catcher, so the best-case scenario is that he gets work as the backup or possibly as the third catcher, and in that scenario, he may not retain catcher eligibility every year. If the bat is as good as expected, he would split time between catcher and left field. Alvarez is a phenom. What he did last year as a 17-year-old is ridiculous. Even so, he's a catcher and he is several years away, and a lot can go wrong between now and when he reaches the majors. Jeffers is basically Mitch Garver 2.0, but therein lies the problem. Garver is pretty good, so Jeffers may not play a lot initially.
TIER FOUR
7. Tyler Stephenson, Reds
8. Luis Campusano, Padres
9. Diego Cartaya, Dodgers
Stephenson is not a good defender, but the bar to clear to be the primary backstop on the Reds is pretty low, and I expect him to be an above-average hitter for the position. Campusano is coming off a statistically impressive season in the Cal League, but I want to see how he handles Double-A before anointing him next in line in San Diego, especially when they already have the best catcher framer in the game (Austin Hedges) and one of the best offensive catchers (Francisco Mejia). Cartaya is on track to be the game's best catching prospect when Rutschman graduates in 2021.
Honorable Mention: Ivan Herrera, Gabriel Moreno, Ronnier Quintero, Keibert Ruiz, Bo Naylor, Mario Feliciano, Rayner Santana, Miguel Amaya, Alejandro Kirk, Anthony Seigler, Ronaldo Hernandez, Connor Wong, Andrick Nava, Sam Huff, Endy Rodriguez, Andrew Knizner, William Contreras, Shea Langeliers, Korey Lee, MJ Melendez, Antonio Gomez, Josh Breaux, Austin Allen, Deivy Grullon, Cal Raleigh, David Garcia
