Last week we covered some pitchers off to rocky starts and the impact of injuries on production to determine whether these pitchers should be discarded or kept as they attempt to work through their struggles. That is a form of risk/reward analysis. This week, we take it a step further. If you are in the hunt for a league title, now is the time to actually pursue players – in our case pitchers – who, while still risky, have hinted that better days are imminent. The key here is deciding how much reward is necessary to offset the risk. However, that is the basis of fantasy baseball. It's relatively easy to assign estimated value based on past performance. But success is predicated on predicting the future.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have impressed me with both positive hints and/or future potential at this point in the season. This could be either adjustments or just settling in after returning from an injury. Those are the critical components in risk/reward: Hinting that performance could improve (there is still risk involved) and having the skill set to make a large impact (ah, the reward!). 

You might consider aggressively pursuing these arms:

Kodai Senga (Mets, 4-2, 1.16 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) – It's probably no surprise that I monitor baseball in Japan and Korea pretty closely, watching for impact players who might arrive in the USA fairly soon. Here is my most recent featured arm. I have Senga in a group with two other pitchers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki (plus Shohei Ohtani who's pitching future is undefined but who needs to be on your watch list). I think you'll agree that's pretty elite company. Senga has a huge repertoire including a genuine fork ball that you don't see very often these days. Trust me, it's worth the price of admission if you are a big strikeout fan like me. He has had some trouble adjusting, suffering from too many walks and elevated pitch counts, but things will improve with each outing. As the season progresses, I think you will see his effectiveness last deeper into games, and he could be on the brink of capturing more success over the remainder of the season. I own him in all of my leagues, and I couldn't be happier about it.

Max Fried (Yankees, 6-0, 1.01 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) – What happens when most of your rotation with arms like Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman go on the injured list long-term? Somebody has to step up, BIG time. Wave a magic wand, and a very good pitcher turns into a star. That's Fried. As of this past Monday, the Yankees are 7-0 in games started by Fried – they are below .500 in their other games. He's not a huge strikeout pitcher (7.9K/9), but he keeps the ball on the ground with very few homeruns and primarily soft hits. To be honest, I have never been a huge Fried fan. He has always featured good stuff with pretty good command, but until this year, it never really stood out. Sometimes, adversity allows you to take everything to the next level. I think that's where we are. More focus leads to better command, and it all adds up to a new pitcher. In this case, potentially a Cy Young award winner, and he'll have to stay ahead of guys like Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown to do it.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers, 4-2, 0.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) – I'm going to say it. As of today (things certainly could change in the future), Yamamoto is the best pitcher from Japan to pitch in MLB. Hideo Nomo probably started it about 20 years ago, and they just keep getting better. Like most pitchers coming over from the Pacific Rim, Yamamoto has a diverse repertoire highlighted by a moving mid-90s fastball and a nasty splitter. While his walk rate is still a bit high, he can command everything in his arsenal. The challenge has been getting the more patient MLB hitters to chase pitches intentionally thrown out of the zone. He rarely misses by much. He's just in his second season in the states, so it's not too surprising he is still in the adjustment period. Like Fried, he too has a clear shot at a Cy Young but needs to hold off guys like Michael King and Freddy Peralta.

These guys are good trade bait in my eyes:

Colin Rea (Cubs, 2-0, 2.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) – He really wasn't intended to be on a list like this, good or bad. A 34-year-old journeyman, he caught on with the Cubs when the Brewers decided not to exercise their contract option for this season. He was expected to serve in a long man/swing man role, but as starting pitchers succumbed to injuries, he found himself a regular member of the rotation. In a MLB career that dates back to 2015, Rea has posted a modest 4.41 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, averaging about 7K/9 over his career, but he also generally throws strikes to limit baserunners. So, bottom line, we have a steady veteran who could struggle if he is asked to work too many innings. Overexposure is not his friend.

Tyler Mahle (Rangers, 3-1, 1.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) – I think mirrors are an amazing thing, and this year nobody has used them as effectively as Mahle. He was a member of the Reds for a few seasons before moving to Minnesota in 2023 and almost immediately requiring Tommy John surgery. He came back with Texas last season, but he was a shadow of his former self – velocity down a couple ticks, and his strikeout rate cratered as well. That's a little bit unusual, but it has carried over to this year, albeit with significantly better overall results. He looks hittable, and a microscopic BABIP of .239 would suggest that is a fair observation. He is keeping his off balance as his hard-hit rate is very good, but his biggest claim to fame is not having allowed a home run in his first 38 2025 innings. I just don't see that continuing as the season progresses.

Jose Quintana (Brewers, 4-1, 2.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) – Quintana is what I call a red flag special because there are so many things I consider warnings for stormy weather ahead. The 36-year-old has been around a long time. He debuted for the White Sox in 2012. His calling card(s) are subpar stuff, but good command and a deceptive delivery. He doesn't miss many bats, but he keeps the ball on the ground – something that isn't always a good thing these days. Don't get me wrong, this wily veteran isn't likely to be horrible, but I don't see him maintaining his current peripherals. Milwaukee is capable of providing run support so he should collect some wins, but I see him as more of an innings eater (without many strikeouts) going forward.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The A's' Gunnar Hoglund made his MLB debut a few days ago, and it was all you could hope for. He pitched six innings, allowing just six hits and one run while striking out seven. Yes, it was against a weak-hitting Miami, but he looked sharp and he was throwing his whole arsenal for strikes (no walks allowed).
• Merrill Kelly has suffered from cramping on and off for several seasons. The Diamondbacks right-hander generally pitches pretty well, but they have not been able to effectively deal with the cramping issues, leaving his anticipated performance, and, even more so, his expected length of each outing in question.
• Texas has struggled to score runs at times this season, but the pitching has been better than expected. A big part of their success has been Nathan Eovaldi who boasts a 2.03 ERA with an eye-popping 53:4 K:BB over 48 innings. When they eventually start hitting, the Rangers could be a force in the tough AL West.
• The Dodgers' Roki Sasaki was the talk of the town in the offseason. He finally managed his first MLB win last weekend. He has the high-octane fastball, but remember he is still just 23-years-old. He's getting a bit better every time we check on him, and if he can stay healthy, the best is yet to come.
• In his first appearance since 2022, the results for Houston's Lance McCullers were mixed. He didn't allow any runs, but he needed 87 pitches and didn't finish the fourth inning (he allowed three hits and three walks), and his fastball velocity was down a couple ticks. Let's see if he shows improvement next time out.
• The clock is ticking. The Pirates' Bubba Chandler doesn't really have anything yet to prove at Triple-A Indianapolis. He has allowed just 10 hits in 25 innings (1.42 ERA, 0.68 WHIP) while piling up 36 strikeouts. His call-up to join fellow ace Paul Skenes has got to be imminent. If he's out there, grab him.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Reds' Alexis Diaz has been a train wreck early this season, so bad that they sent him to Triple-A. That puts closing in the hands of Emilio Pagan. I'm skeptical and might slightly prefer Tony Santillan. Interesting development – the Dodgers recently used presumed closer Tanner Scott in the eighth inning, against the bottom of the order, including two righties, then brought in Evan Phillips to close things out. He has closing experience, and this looks like they could be pointing him to the ninth inning, but he went on the IL, and just a night later, Kirby Yates took a turn in the ninth. I hate seeing closers pitching in non-save situations. The Angels' Kenley Jansen is 7-for-7 in save chances, but he allowed six runs (including three homers) in less than an inning the other night. Sticking with blowups, few relievers could match the numbers of the A's Mason Miller with a 1.50 ERA, 10-for-10 in save chances and 23 strikeouts in 12 innings. One outing against a weak-hitting Miami team, and five runs later he has a blown save and a 4.97 ERA. He'll be back.

Find out which projected starters are going and when with RotoWire's Probable Pitchers page!