This week, I'm looking into starters who improved their strikeout minus walk rate from the first to the second half. Strikeouts and walks are the backbone of determining a pitcher's talent.
By eyeballing the table below, most of these pitchers are universally rostered and irrelevant for managers searching for waiver wire help. I'll revisit the highly ranked guys once the season is over and every player is back on the market.
| Name | 1H K%-BB% | 2H K%-BB% | Diff | NFBC Roster% | CBS Roster% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | 12.1% | 21.6% | 9.5% | 100% | 97% |
| Jose Soriano | 8.8% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 98% | 76% |
| Gavin Williams | 9.0% | 17.3% | 8.3% | 99% | 89% |
| Brady Singer | 12.1% | 20.3% | 8.2% | 98% | 79% |
| Kevin Gausman | 15.5% | 22.7% | 7.2% | 100% | 96% |
| Jack Leiter | 9.0% | 16.0% | 7.0% | 97% | 70% |
| Jeffrey Springs | 8.6% | 15.3% | 6.7% | 95% | 66% |
| Sandy Alcantara | 8.3% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 100% | 85% |
| Jacob deGrom | 20.6% | 26.0% | 5.4% | 100% | 97% |
| Drew Rasmussen | 15.5% | 20.8% | 5.3% | 100% | 94% |
| Edward Cabrera | 16.1% | 21.4% | 5.3% | 98% | 74% |
| Paul Skenes | 21.5% | 25.9% | 4.4% | 100% | 98% |
| Luis Castillo | 13.1% | 17.0% | 3.9% | 100% | 96% |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 8.8% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 55% | 41% |
| Bryan Woo | 19.6% | 23.4% | 3.7% | 100% | 98% |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 19.1% | 22.8% | 3.7% | 100% | 97% |
| Jose Quintana | 5.6% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 63% | 56% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 19.2% | 22.8% | 3.6% | 100% | 97% |
| Shane Baz | 14.6% | 18.1% | 3.5% | 97% | 76% |
| Jose Berrios | 11.8% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 100% | 90% |
| Justin Verlander | 12.2% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 59% | 39% |
| Mitchell Parker | 5.8% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 8% | 18% |
| Bailey Ober | 12.8% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 97% | 71% |
| Brayan Bello | 9.2% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 100% | 91% |
| Nick |
This week, I'm looking into starters who improved their strikeout minus walk rate from the first to the second half. Strikeouts and walks are the backbone of determining a pitcher's talent.
By eyeballing the table below, most of these pitchers are universally rostered and irrelevant for managers searching for waiver wire help. I'll revisit the highly ranked guys once the season is over and every player is back on the market.
| Name | 1H K%-BB% | 2H K%-BB% | Diff | NFBC Roster% | CBS Roster% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | 12.1% | 21.6% | 9.5% | 100% | 97% |
| Jose Soriano | 8.8% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 98% | 76% |
| Gavin Williams | 9.0% | 17.3% | 8.3% | 99% | 89% |
| Brady Singer | 12.1% | 20.3% | 8.2% | 98% | 79% |
| Kevin Gausman | 15.5% | 22.7% | 7.2% | 100% | 96% |
| Jack Leiter | 9.0% | 16.0% | 7.0% | 97% | 70% |
| Jeffrey Springs | 8.6% | 15.3% | 6.7% | 95% | 66% |
| Sandy Alcantara | 8.3% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 100% | 85% |
| Jacob deGrom | 20.6% | 26.0% | 5.4% | 100% | 97% |
| Drew Rasmussen | 15.5% | 20.8% | 5.3% | 100% | 94% |
| Edward Cabrera | 16.1% | 21.4% | 5.3% | 98% | 74% |
| Paul Skenes | 21.5% | 25.9% | 4.4% | 100% | 98% |
| Luis Castillo | 13.1% | 17.0% | 3.9% | 100% | 96% |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 8.8% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 55% | 41% |
| Bryan Woo | 19.6% | 23.4% | 3.7% | 100% | 98% |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 19.1% | 22.8% | 3.7% | 100% | 97% |
| Jose Quintana | 5.6% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 63% | 56% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 19.2% | 22.8% | 3.6% | 100% | 97% |
| Shane Baz | 14.6% | 18.1% | 3.5% | 97% | 76% |
| Jose Berrios | 11.8% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 100% | 90% |
| Justin Verlander | 12.2% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 59% | 39% |
| Mitchell Parker | 5.8% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 8% | 18% |
| Bailey Ober | 12.8% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 97% | 71% |
| Brayan Bello | 9.2% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 100% | 91% |
| Nick Martinez | 11.2% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 50% | 36% |
| Jesus Luzardo | 19.2% | 21.4% | 2.1% | 100% | 97% |
When I started going through the players, I was hoping to find a breakout or two. Instead, I found a bunch of pitchers trying to bounce off the bottom.
Edward Cabrera (74% rostered on CBS) and Jose Soriano (76%)
These two are perfect examples of how the fantasy baseball community has improved at evaluating pitchers. Both were drafted early and struggled early on, so they were dropped by some managers. Once the pair showed signs of improvement, they became universally rostered in the NFBC.
Fantasy managers no longer have months or even weeks to determine if a player is fixed or not. Most of the time, they have just a few games to make a call. Some fantasy managers make the call in just one game.
Mitchell Parker (18%)
Parker's 2024 season was decent (4.29 ERA, 1.30, and 7.9 K/9) with hopes of improvement in 2025. There was no improvement as he fell on his face right out of the gate.
He posted a 2.65 ERA in April; his strikeouts were down while his walks were up, leading to a 5.40 xFIP. Regression came fast in May with a 7.94 ERA.
While he has seen his K%-BB% improve, he started near the bottom, so he remains barely a rosterable starter. For those brave souls who are streaming everyone, Parker lines up for two starts next week against the Marlins and Pirates.
Nick Martinez (36%)
Martinez keeps jumping in and out of the rotation, so it's tough to know when he'll start and his "starting" talent level. The other issue is that Martinez's K%-BB% took a major hit to start the season. It dropped from 17.2 percent last year to 11.2 percent in the first half and up to just 13.5 percent in the second half. His overall production is still way down compared to last season.
I'm not even sure he's streamable with the talent bump.
Justin Verlander (39%)
Verlander's struggles lasted well past the All-Star break. After his July 23 start in Atlanta, he had a 4.70 ERA (4.99 FIP), 7.5 K/9 and 1.49 WHIP. In the seven starts since then, he has a 3.38 ERA (3.43 xFIP), 10.6 K/9 and 1.29 WHIP. While his walks dropped from nine percent to six percent, the big gains have come from his strikeout rate, which has jumped from 19 percent to 27 percent.
It's tough to pin down where the improvement is coming from. His pitch velocity and pitch mix are similar. His Ball% is close, with a drop from 35 percent to 34 percent. Part of the improvement could be from facing Pittsburgh twice and Washington once to start the stretch.
Easily worth a stream depending on the opponent.
Tomoyuki Sugano (41%)
While Sugano's walks are up (from five percent to seven perecnt), his strikeouts are up even more (14 percent to 20 percent). The gains come from a velocity uptick after a gap of 11 days without an apperance around the All-Star break.
All his pitches are up about one mph, with his cutter seeing the biggest gain of 1.6 mph. FanGraphs Pitching+ model shows a small improvement, with Sugano going from 100 Pitching+ to 103 Pitching+. The problem is that the walks cut into the strikeout gains.
Like Verlander, Sugano's improvements push him from the unstartable range to the streaming range.
Jose Quintana (56%)
I was surprised to see the 36-year-old Quntana was rostered in over 50 percent of CBS leagues. Fantasy managers aren't fans of the old guys. All his gains stem from dropping his walk rate from 10 percent to seven percent. The improvement in the walks was offset by his groundball rate dropping 10 points and his home run rate thereby jumping from 0.9 HR/9 to 1.9 HR/9.
The crafty old lefty does have a place on rosters for those teams chasing wins. So far, Quintana has 10 wins to go with his 3.69 ERA (4.96 xFIP) in Milwaukee.
Jeffrey Springs (66%)
Springs is the first player profiled who turned around his season. While I'm examining first-half to second-half improvements, his changes around the end of May. At that point, he had a 4.72 ERA and 1.38 WHIP (4.3 BB/9). From then on, it's a 3.80 ERA and 1.07 WHIP (1.9 BB/9). Besides throwing more strikes, he started mixing in a cutter, throwing it 10 percent of the time.
I'm surprised he's this available and would try to add him in any league.
Jack Leiter (70%)
Leiter's strikeout rate jumped in the second half from 20 percent to 28 percent. Similar to Springs, Leiter's improvement occurred in mid-June, when he dropped his sinker usage from 22 percent to nine percent. Compared to his other pitches, his sinker doesn't sink (34 percent groundball rate) or miss bats (seven percent swinging strike rate, the lowest of Leiter's five pitches), thereby making it expendable. A classic case of improvement by throwing just his best pitches more often.
Leiter is tough to roster in roto leagues because his steady 11 percent walk rate leads to a 1.31 WHIP. His WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.40 ERA.
Bailey Ober (71%)
There is no way Ober should be rostered at this point. To start the season, he lost over one mph on his fastball and became a traveling home run derby. His 29 percent groundball rate means everything is in the air, leading to a 2.1 HR/9. His ERA estimators agree with his 5.23 ERA.
Additionally, his fastball velocity averaged between 88.8 mph and 89.8 mph over his last three starts. He is broken, and there may not be enough time left in the season to right the ship.
