Leaderboard of the Week: Max Exit Velocity Gainers

A few years back, Rob Arthur wrote:

For every mile per hour above 108 [maxEV], a hitter is projected to gain about 6 points of OPS relative to their predicted number.

I ran the numbers for this year. I took a hitter's max exit velocity (maxEV) from 2022 to 2024 and compared it to this year's value. Additionally, I compared their projected Steamer OPS to their actual OPS. Here are the 31 players (min 100 PA in each season) who saw an increase of at least two mph in their maxEV:

In total, 20 of the 33 players outperformed their projected OPS. On average, this subset saw a jump of 3.3 mph in max exit velocity and 14 points in OPS. That works out to 4.2 points of OPS per one-mph improvement. A little lower than the value seen in the earlier (and larger) study. 

Here are my thoughts on some of the players. 

Addison Barger, 3B/OF, Blue Jays
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs
Kyle Stowers, OF, Marlins

These three are the poster kids for how hitting the ball harder can push a player to the next level. Compared to some of the hitters who didn't take a step forward, they started ahead, sitting in the 30th percentile range in many batted ball metrics found on Baseball Savant.  

While it's tough to know who might hit the ball harder, it might be obvious to stay away from those who, even with a boost, won't make a difference. Like… 

Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS, Marlins 

Among the players on the above table whose actual OPS sits below their projected OPS, Edwards experienced the largest increase in maxEV. Regression was coming for him after he posted a .398 BABIP last season, a mark which has dropped to .338 this year. 

Additionally, he has a flat swing (45 percent groundball rate, 9.0 degree average launch angle), limiting his home run potential (0.7 percent barrel rate, two home runs). Here are his expected home runs (xHR) in each stadium:

Edwards' career xHR varies from nine (Yankee Stadium) to two (several, including his home park). He's going to need a couple more steps forward until he becomes a home run threat. 

Dominic Canzone, OF, Mariners

Canzone has been trying to break out for a couple of seasons, and it might be happening. Three signs point to a breakout. 

The obvious one is the power bump, with his average exit velocity improving from 89.9 mph to 92.0 mph. The second one is a career-high 77 percent contact rate. The higher contact rate pushed his strikeout rate down from 28 percent to 21 percent and his batting average up from .196 to .283. 

Finally, Canzone is hitting left-handed pitchers well enough (.606 OPS) that he's not getting platooned as much. Recently, he went through a stretch where he started against five of six lefties.

Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics

Wilson leads the league in home run minus barrels with three. This "skill" seems sticky from season to season, with many of the same guys leading the yearly lists (e.g., Isaac Paredes, Steven Kwan, Cedric Mullins and Sal Frelick). While these guys seem to be taking advantage of every bit of their power, they have a ceiling of around 20 HR. 

Since 2021, 19 hitters (min 400 PA) hit home runs than barrels; only Isaac Paredes (who hit 31 in 2023) hit more than 19 homers. On average, this group hit 11.3 home runs, finishing with more than 14 just four times. 

Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Angels

Schanuel shows signs of improvement this year, both with a power bump and by cutting his strikeout rate by about five points (from 17 percent to 12 percent). The problem with the power boost is that he started from such a low point. His flyball balls still don't go over the fence.

His barrel went from the ninth percentile to the 12th percentile, while his hard hit rate went from the fourth to the seventh percentile. He started at the bottom and is still there.

While he doesn't hit for power, Schanuel has a great eye and the ability to make contact. He won't see improvement in those areas; he's maxed out. If he could just swing harder while maintaining his current skills, there is some upside. 

Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox

After an incredible 2024 season (.285 AVG, 21 HR, 34 SB), Duran's 2025 season (.256 AVG, 13 HR, 21 SB) seems like a letdown. 

All his improved raw power metrics (barrel rate, hard hit rate, average and max exit velocity) aren't translating to the field, with his ISO dropping from .207 to .188. Of the 39 barrels he's hit, only a third of them have gone for home runs. Normally, around half of all barrels go for home runs (53 percent this year). He was at 47 percent last season.

Besides the bad luck on barrels, his contract rate dropped (from 78 percent to 74 percent), with his strikeout rate increasing as a result (from 22 percent to 24 percent). 

While no one is dropping Duran this season, it'll be interesting to see how he's valued going into next season. He might have some upside with more homers. 

Brooks Lee, 2B/3B/SS, Twins

While Lee improved from 2024 to 2025 (.585 OPS to 687 OPS), projections expected more from him, knowing his minor-league history. Lee stepped up from being an afterthought to being a waiver wire/bench injury replacement. It's not enough. He doesn't have a carrying fantasy trait, with 13 homers, two steals and a .249 batting average). While improved, he's still not fantasy relevant.