This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
While FanDuel's Saturday main slate is a somewhat usual compact contest with all games going off between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT, it's a large 10-gamer, which we don't normally get over the weekend. Only two arms are priced in five-figures with two more in the $9,000 tier, so we're not deep with elite arms and offense may be plentiful.
That's not fully supported by our run lines, as only Orioles - Rays has a double-digit run total, though five more sit at 9.0 or 9.5 runs. Unsurprisingly, the Brewers (-245) are the slate's biggest favorite against the Rockies, followed by the Giants (-166) at the White Sox. We'll need to track rain in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, while there could be some minor wind assistance to bats in Boston, Kansas City and Baltimore.
Pitching
Robbie Ray, SF at CWS ($10,600): If considering the top four pay up options, I'm going all the way up and likely many others are, too. The matchup is just too obviously great with the White Sox striking out at a 26.7 percent rate against lefties while posting an 84 wRC+ and .289 wOBA. Ray isn't in elite form, not topping 28 FanDuel point in his last three starts, but that's on the heels of eight straight quality starts. He's shown the potential for a 4x return or greater despite the high price, and this is the spot for that potential to resurface.
Brandon Pfaadt, ARI vs. MIA ($8,000): Given the betting odds, Milwaukee's Quinn Priester ($8,200) figures to be a popular choice, but for the sake of being different, let's consider Pfaadt. His 5.49 ERA comes with a lower 4.16 xFIP, and while I'd want to say his .310 BABIP suggests more progression is possible, that number is actually in line with prior seasons. So while he's hittable, the Marlins aren't a scary lineup with a 99 wRC+ and .318 wOBA off righties. They come with a 44.3 percent ground ball rate, which plays to Pfaadt's 41.4 percent groundball rate. Miami's run expectancy is just 3.8, suggesting we could see a positive five- to six-inning outing from Pfaadt.
Miles Mikolas, STL at CLE ($7,400): It's truly a gross pitching slate, but if paying down is your style, Mikolas merits some consideration. He's averaged 32 FDP across his last two starts, and outside of Jose Ramirez, who isn't guaranteed to play due to a forearm issue, the Guardians lineup doesn't scare. They rank 25th with a 93 wRC+ and .301 wOBA. There's always the chance Mikolas gets torched, but the matchup gives him a chance to where if I'm entering multiple lineups, he's getting a spot on some of those.
Top Targets
Pittsburgh's Bailey Falter actually has serviceable numbers, allowing a .324 wOBA to lefties and .290 to righties. But Juan Soto ($4,200) appears too hot to ignore, having hit six homers in his last seven games. He brings a .401 wOBA and 162 wRC+ off lefties into Saturday.
Cal Raleigh's ($3,800) has seen his price slump enough where he's a very viable option. Pair that with a matchup against Kumar Rocker, who is allowing a .434 wOBA and .1.016 OPS to lefties, and there's reason for optimism Saturday.
It's not a slate if we're not picking on Rockies pitching, where they'll send out Antonio Senzatela Saturday, who's allowing a .409 wOBA and .935 OPS to lefties and .394/.924 to righties. Christian Yelich ($3,600) has a 10-game hitting streak, driving in 17 in that stretch. Jackson Chourio ($3,400) has hit in 13 of his last 16.
Bargain Bats
Pittsburgh's offense isn't trustworthy, but neither is Mets' starter Paul Blackburn, who's allowing a .454 wOBA and 1.113 OPS to righties. Bryan Reynolds ($2,800) looks to be breaking out of a season-long funk, going 10-for-22 over his last five games.
Boston's Lucas Giolito has been very up and down, and when he's bad, he's been really bad. We've got a few BvP angles to potentially attack against him. Bo Bichette ($3,100) has 10 hits in his last seven, and is 7-for-17 (.412) with a 1.150 OPS off Giolito. Alejandro Kirk ($2,900) has 11 hits in his last seven, and is 5-for-14 (.357) with four homers off the Red Sox starter.
Cleveland's Slade Cecconi has thrown just 9.1 innings at home, but it's resulted in a 5.79 ERA, a .413 wOBA and .956 OPS to lefties, something the Cardinals have a plethora of. Lars Nootbaar ($3,100) had a modest six-game hitting streak snapped last night, but has homered in two prior games. Alec Burleson ($2,900) continues to be undervalued and under targetted, homering in five of his last 11.
Stacks to Consider
Rays vs. Zach Eflin (Orioles): Brandon Lowe ($3,200), Jonathan Aranda ($3,100), Yandy Diaz ($3,100)
Orioles vs. Zack Littell (Rays): Gunnar Henderson ($3,200), Jackson Holliday ($3,000), Ryan O'Hearn ($3,000)
We're going full on game stack here, and it's not just because it has the slate's highest run total, though that helps, as does the fact these teams erupted for 30 runs Friday night, which taxed both teams bullpens. It's simply a great spot for both lineups. On the Rays side, they face Eflin, who is allowing a .438 woBA and 1.044 OPS to lefties. All three of these options from Tampa make for solid stand alone plays, in turn, making them a terrific stack. Lowe has a 14-game hitting streak and has homered in consecutive games. Aranda has a 12-game hitting streak, and Diaz, although a righty, has hit in 16 of his last 17. This trio gives a traditional top of the order stack, all of which are in elite form.
The Orioles side of this isn't in the same form, but the splits allow us to load up on lefties at the top of the order against Little, who's allowing a .414 wOBA and .983 OPS to lefties on the road. Henderson has a .403 wOBA, 166 wRC+ and .222 ISO off righties, while O'Hearn sits at .398/163/.212. Holliday doesn't have elite splits, but has homered in two of his last four and gives a third lefty at the leadoff spot. Colton Cowser ($2,900) could be a pivot off Holliday, depending on how the Orioles' lineup shakes out.
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