Luis Severino, NYY vs. CLE ($45): Max Scherzer ($58) is by far the most expensive pitcher Monday, but heís coming off a hamstring injury and his numbers were regressing already, so I canít trust him. Severino was lit up in the AL Wild Card Game, but a much better outing is ahead with the over/under at 7.5 for this game. He faced the Indians twice in August, going 6.2 innings and striking out nine in both. The Indians may get a run or two, but Severino should at least make it to the fifth inning while striking out a decent amount.
Jose Quintana, CHC vs. WAS ($37): I had Yu Darvish ($39) in this spot, but Iíd rather trust another home pitcher in a game with a low over/under. It also helps that Quintanaís K rate has been the best of his career (26.2) and that should help against this roster. Since mid-September, the Nationals have had trouble against lefties with a 26.1 percent K rate, and Iím not entirely confident with Scherzer on the other side.
Brian McCann, HOU at BOS ($11): With the highest over/under (10.5) of the day, Iíll be using a few players from this game. McCann only has two hits in the series, but as a lefty against Rick Porcello, that could lead to a couple more. Porcello is arguably the worst pitcher on the mound Monday and has some sketchy numbers against lefties at home with a .387 wOBA allowed and 5.03 xFIP. McCann has also been much better against righties in the last couple of weeks (27 plate appearances) with a .416 wOBA and .480 ISO.
Hanley Ramirez, BOS vs. HOU ($13): Coming off a four-hit game, Ramirez has been Bostonís best bat so far with six hits in total. Heís 1-of-15 against Charlie Morton in his career, so thatís worrisome, but only two of those at-bats came this season. While Morton is striking out a lot of guys this season, thatís mainly against lefties with a 32.8 percent K rate. His numbers are much worse against righties with a .345 wOBA allowed.
Jose Altuve, HOU at BOS ($22): Porcello is better against righties, but Iím not sure that will work here given how Altuve has looked in the postseason. Already with eight hits including the three-homer opener, Altuve is ready to put away the Red Sox. Porcello has better numbers against righties, but his .340 wOBA allowed at home against them still isnít very good.
Jake Lamb, ARI vs. LAD ($13): Darvish carved through the Diamondbacks earlier this season, but Iím banking on that to change in the playoffs. Lamb was benched against Clayton Kershaw, but only because heís a lefty. Lamb closed the season with a .416 wOBA and .345 ISO in his last 37 plate appearances against righties and a low 10.8 percent K rate should also help. On the season, Darvish has a much worse wOBA allowed against lefties at .333.
Carlos Correa, HOU at BOS ($21): If you couldnít tell, Iím going big on the Astros against Porcello. Correa hasn't skipped a beat in his return from injury and a couple of homers in the last two games show that. The two have only faced each other twice in their careers, so that could lean in Correaís favor as well. With a .435 wOBA and .333 ISO in his last 53 plate appearances against righties, Correa is worth the extra money.
Yasiel Puig, LAD at ARI ($13): Given how Puig has looked in two postseason games (five hits, one double, one triple, four RBIs), this was a fairly easy choice for the price. Puig has blasted righties for a .379 wOBA in his last 35 plate appearances and Zack Greinke is coming off some troublesome performances, having not made it past four innings in his last three starts.
Aaron Hicks, NYY vs. CLE ($14): I had another lefty Astro in this spot (Josh Reddick, $12), but decided to mix things up. Hicks was one of the few Yankees to get a hit off Trevor Bauer in his last start and heís also hit safely in all four playoff games. Bauerís main issue has come against lefties this season with almost twice as many homers allowed (16 to nine) in fewer innings pitched, and thatís seen in a higher .356 wOBA allowed.
Jackie Bradley, BOS vs. HOU ($10): The lefty is super cheap, has only faced Morton twice in his career and homered in Bostonís only home game of the series. Bradley has disappointed most of the season, but I figured I could gamble on a cheap bat in a game with a high over/under. Unfortunately, thatís the only number that supports Bradley. For other cheap plays, Iíd look to see if Curtis Granderson ($9) and Carlos Beltran ($7) are in their respective starting lineups.