FanDuel NBA: Monday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Monday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Monday's 11-game slate kicks off at 7:00 p.m. EDT and there are many injuries to sift through, especially at point guard where the pool is littered with red.  That position ends up playing itself up top, but other positions won't be so easy to figure out. Let's begin with the sportsbook numbers.

SLATE OVERVIEW

SAS @ WAS (+2 ) O/U: 229.5

ATL @ DET (+5.5) O/U: 220.5

LAL @ ORL (+10) O/U: 211.5

OKC @ PHI (-11) O/U: 219.5

CLE @ TOR (-9.5) O/U: 218

PHO @ NYK (+2) O/U: 215.5

CHI @ MIA (4.5) O/U: 206.5

LAC @ NOR (-3.5) O/U: 229

UTA @ MIN (+10) O/U: 229.5

MEM @ DEN (-4.5) O/U: 228.5

DAL @ SAC (+5.5) O/U: 227.5

Games To Target in BOLD

Games to Fade in ITALIC

(odds and lines are best available US numbers and are subject to change)

INJURIES 

WAS Rui Hachimura (knee) -OUT

Daniel Gafford ($5,100) is definitely someone worth considering as a contrarian center. With Hachimura out, there's plenty of frontcourt production to absorb, and unlike other sites, Gafford is listed at power forward on FanDuel. The hole left by Hachimura has also resulted in a slide to small forward for Bradley Beal, giving Raul Neto ($4,500) a string of starts. Amidst the bevy of red O's at point guard, Neto could be an excellent value grab.

ATL Trae Young (ankle) - OUT

ATL De'Andre Hunter (knee) - OUT

There is a small chance that Young will only miss two games with this knee injury, but if he can't make it, the Hawks will likely continue to employ Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,500) at point guard. Although options open up for him and Kevin Huerter ($5,900), their respective salaries will be too steep to get to if Young suits up.

LAL Anthony Davis (calf) - PROBABLE

LAL Dennis Schroder (calf) - QUESTIONABLE

LAL Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle) - PROBABLE

There will be people out there who take the risk on Davis, hoping for 30 minutes against Orlando. At his current salary, I will not be one of them. Schroder moved from a foot infection to a calf injury and is now truly questionable. While it's possible that Ben McLemore ($3,800) could show up again, he excelled due to KCP's absence. A return for Caldwell-Pope could mess that situation up a bit, in which case Alex Caruso ($3,700) may be a wiser play as a Schroder pivot.

ORL Terrence Ross (back) - QUESTIONABLE

ORL Michael Carter-Williams (ankle) - OUT

ORL Otto Porter (foot) - OUT

ORL James Ennis (calf) - QUESTIONABLE

Orlando has been a tough call pivot-wise. Gary Harris ($3,800) and Dwayne Bacon ($3,900) continue to be your low-cost budget calls here.

OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (foot) - OUT

OKC Luguentz Dort (hip) - OUT

The Thunder have employed a series of looks to account for Dort's absence, but Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,400) is priced adequately as a player who should benefit from his absence. You can't rule out Kenrich Williams ($5,200) either.

PHI Joel Embiid (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE

PHI Ben Simmons (illness) - OUT

PHI Tobias Harris (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

PHI Furkan Korkmaz (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

With Simmons definitely out, guards like Shake Milton ($4,700) and Seth Curry ($4,000) jump to mind immediately. Obviously, Dwight Howard ($5,100) earns a start if Embiid can't play, but with Korkmaz questionable, it's wise to avoid going lower to account for Harris.

CLE Collin Sexton (concussion) - OUT

CLE Kevin Love - POSSIBLE REST

Keep an eye out for Love, who still sits out on the occasional back-to-back. Dean Wade ($3,500) would jump in value in that scenario. Darius Garland ($7,600) and Cedi Osman ($3,500) set up well as pivots for Sexton.

TOR Chris Boucher (knee) - OUT

While you could make a case for Khem Birch ($5,000), it may be wiser to go with a higher-priced starter that we'll discuss in a moment.

PHO Jae Crowder (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

Torrey Craig ($3,500) came out of nowhere with a double-double in Phoenix's last game, so if Crowder sits, the Suns have found an apt pivot for him at the wing. Luckily, FanDuel has yet to raise his salary.

CHI Zach LaVine (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT

Rolling with Coby White ($6,300) still appears to be the smartest play in LaVine's absence, although White's price is getting up there.

MIA Kendrick Nunn (elbow) - QUESTIONABLE

MIA Tyler Herro (foot) - QUESTIONABLE

MIA Andre Iguodala (hip) - OUT

Goran Dragic ($5,300) will be coming off of a tag for rest, so he's a nice play if Nunn remains out. It's not advisable to go much lower than that.

LAC Kawhi Leonard (foot) - OUT

LAC Luke Kennard (rest ) - OUT

Leonard's absence obviously has huge implications for the Clippers, and we'll discuss them a bit later. It is safe to consider Terance Mann ($5,100) as a starter, however.

NOR Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

NOR Josh Hart (thumb) - OUT

NOR Steven Adams (toe) - QUESTIONABLE

Pivoting to the remaining starters remains a wise play for the first two absences. The backup at center is too risky for this massive slate.

UTA Donovan Mitchell (ankle) - OUT

We're quickly learning that with so much available talent, it's tough to pinpoint who will have a breakout game on any night to absorb Mitchell's production.  We won't give them individual endorsements in the Expected Chalk or Value Plays sections, but you have to give Mike Conley ($7,100), Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,400), Jordan Clarkson ($6,000) and Joe Ingles ($6,400) consideration, in that order.

DEN Will Barton (hamstring) - OUT

DEN Monte Morris (hamstring) - OUT

PJ Dozier ($4,600) will continue to see more work in Barton's absence, while Facundo Campazzo ($4,300) will continue to fill in at point guard.

DAL Luka Doncic (elbow) - QUESTIONABLE

DAL Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

With the latest tip-off on the slate, it's going to be difficult to make a call here. The only real option is to take a risk on Doncic and pivot to Sacramento value if he doesn't play, but that leaves way too much money on the table. Roster Doncic and Porzingis with the knowledge that you might be stuck at game lock.

SAC De'Aaron Fox (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT

Many will flock to Tyrese Haliburton ($6,100) in this spot, and for good reason. I would not count out a boost for Delon Wright ($5,900) and Buddy Hield ($6,600), however.

ELITE PLAYERS

We have six players at 10k or higher, and some of them are tough to roster. We've already discussed the quandary associated with Luka Doncic ($11,500), and Joel Embiid ($10,700) may not play at all. If Embiid does suit up, he is definitely worthy of consideration without Ben Simmons against the Thunder. With several Denver players playing superior ball, Nikola Jokic ($11,400) has his value somewhat compromised, but he's impossible to fade entirely. Of the group, it seems that Paul George ($10,000) might be the smart play at this level due to Kawhi's absence, although if Russell Westbrook ($11,200) decides to play on this back-to-back, he will come in a close second. Julius Randle ($10,100) is always a concern, and he plays a tough Phoenix squad. My exposure to the big man will be minimal.

Moving down, we see a number of viable targets, with Zion Williamson ($9,700) once again leading the way as a nightly consideration. I already see a combo of George and Williamson in several of my lineup crunches. Clint Capela ($9,600) is also heavily in play, as he'll take on the role of offensive engine with Trae Young most likely on the bench. My exposure will be low to Jimmy Butler ($9,300), but Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) and Pascal Siakam ($9,000) will garner thumbs up in my optimizer. Towns helped to lead his team to another win against the Jazz last time out, and Siakam should thrive in Chris Boucher's absence. An endorsement for Bradley Beal ($9,400) is largely contingent on Westbrook's playing status.

EXPECTED CHALK

DeMar DeRozan, SA ($8,100) @ WAS

This is a great pace-up spot for the Spurs, and DeRozan has seen no shortage of prolific stat lines lately. He's coming off a superior 51 FP performance after returning from a quad injury, and there could be another explosive night in store with the uptick in possessions.

Michael Porter, DEN ($7,400) vs. MEM 

Porter's memorable string of career-best performances could halt at any time, but I wouldn't bet against him. The matchup against the Grizzlies gives him explosive potential once again, and he's the offensive magnet for the Nuggets right now. At this price, it is difficult to move away from a guy who can get you 30 points and a spiffy contribution in secondary categories. He could even regress somewhat and still reach value at this price point.

Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,300) vs. CLE

The Raptors need to make a move now if they have any hope of being in the mix in mid-May, and VanVleet is key to getting them there. He's coming off a 27/11 double/double against the Knicks and is set up well against the Cavs, who won't have Collin Sexton to defend him. As long as his assist numbers don't leave him high and dry, VanVleet should be in store for a value-beating number.

Harrison Barnes, SAC ($7,000) vs. DAL

Barnes is another player who will need to step up in Fox's absence, and after a standout string of four games, there's every reason to believe that he'll take advantage of the increased opportunities. While Tyrese Haliburton has been effective, the Mavs will no doubt key on him if he plays a lot at point guard, and the youngster may be forced to dish the ball to other playmakers. Barnes will assuredly be one of those targets.

Also consider: Dejounte Murray, SAS ($6,800) @ WAS

VALUE PLAYS

You'll find plenty of value options in the Injuries section, but there many other low-cost budget plays on this massive slate. We will list a few endorsements, accompanied by a small list.

OG Anunoby, TOR ($6,500) vs. CLE

While Anunoby's defensive prowess is well documented, his scoring ability is vastly underrated, as his six three-pointers against the Knicks indicated. He's burst back onto the scene with fantasy totals of 32 and 42 FP since returning from a calf injury, and he should enjoy a nice game against the Cavs, especially if Kevin Love takes a seat on the back-to-back.

Isaiah Roby, OKC ($4,100) @ PHI

Roby will get an uptick if Joel Embiid is absent, and he may still be a smart option at this salary point. Roby sees close to 30 minutes currently, and with a PF designation, we don't have to use the center spot to get him into our lineups. Even if Embiid plays, he could be slowed by his injury somewhat. Roby could reap serious value in this spot.

Terence Davis, SAC ($4,100) vs. DAL

Davis is my punt play of the night. No one really knows how things will shake out with the Kings while Fox is out, but Davis definitely comes into play if they shift Haliburton to point guard. A move like Delon Wright to the point won't help Davis at all, but if the Kings remember how effective Davis was as a placeholder for Kyle Lowry in Toronto, they might be inclined to give him more production in this scenario. While he's only a tournament play at this point, he could be a slate-breaker.

Other value options to consider:

SF Keldon Johnson, SAS ($4,400) @ WAS

PF Jaren Jackson, MEM ($6,600)@ DEN

PG Cory Joseph, DET ($5,000) vs. ATL

PG Lonzo Ball, NOR ($6,100) vs. LAC

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
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