This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 6-8-1 last week, lost my best bet (Texans, good riddance Bill O'Brien) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. Of course, I didn't know Cam Newton wouldn't be playing in Kansas City, but I lock in the picks on Wednesday no matter what, so sometimes those developments accrue to my advantage too.
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Buccaneers -4.5 at Bears
I made this line 2.5, so I'm on the Bears, but after watching them last week, I'm not thrilled about it. The Bucs are missing so many key offensive players and traveling on a short week, though. Take the points.
Buccaneers 19 - 17
Panthers +2.5 at Falcons
This line was at three yesterday, and that's exactly where I set it, but now that it's moved to 2.5, I'm on the Falcons. They're terrible, but a desperate animal with a home game laying less than the full three sounds good to me. Take Atlanta.
Falcons 27 - 24
Raiders +13 at Chiefs
This is probably the sucker side, but I set this line crazy high so I'd be on the Chiefs. The Raiders aren't a total doormat, and they know the Chiefs well, but I didn't want to be hoping for the Raiders defense to stop Patrick Mahomes. Expect a backdoor cover by Oakland, but I'm on the Chiefs.
Chiefs 37 - 23
Broncos +9.5 at Patriots
My specialty is concussion theory, not epidemiology