East Coast Offense: The Mobile Quarterback Era

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

The Mobile Quarterback Era

It used to be that quarterbacks were primarily pocket passers, and mobility was a bonus. The all-time greats were Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Dan Marino and Joe Montana. John Elway (career high 304 rushing yards) and Steve Young were mobile, but still did much of their damage from inside the pocket, and Young's career started late (due to the USFL and backing up Montana) and ended earlier than it might have due to concussions. Steve McNair's career wasn't as long as it might have been, and he had to stop running in 2002 (no 150-yard rushing seasons from 2003-2007) due to all the damage he'd absorbed. Michael Vick was an exciting player, but he managed one 16-game season in his 10-year career as a starter. Donovan McNabb never cracked 250 rushing yards from 2003-2011 after four years as a prolific rusher before that. 

Scrambling for a first down on third-and-long when all your receivers were covered was just as valuable back then as it is now, but it came at a much greater cost: The franchise player on whom your team depended would often take a big hit. And most quarterbacks aren't built like running backs. They're taller, have a lower body-mass-index and run more upright. Not only would you risk losing your QB for the game, but he might miss multiple games and have a shorter career as a result. 

But over the last decade or so, teams started taking better advantage of the slide rule wherein a QB can give himself up and avoid hits. The rule has apparently been in place since the 1980s, but just as it took NBA teams 30 years to exploit the three-point line fully, teams have only recently realized its implications for running QBs. Between the instructions to slide, and the other QB protections put into place more recently, mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson can take off when they're in trouble and usually avoid paying a severe price. 

It's hard to overstate what an advantage this is. When Tom Brady's or Drew Brees' offensive line loses to the pass rush, the best they can do is barely make it out of the pocket and intentionally ground the ball with plausible deniability, an annoying loophole the old school pros have learned to exploit. It's better than taking a sack, but it's still a loss of down and a win for the defense. But with the running QB, the defense can dominate the first two downs, and on third and long break through, yet still give up a crushing first down that keeps them on the field. The difference between an eight-yard sack/subsequent punt and a new set of downs 15 yards up the field is almost akin to a turnover. And the best mobile QBs make these plays nearly every game. 

And it's not simply the backbreaking first downs on third and long. Mobile QBs require extra attention from the defense on every play and often create open lanes for running backs. The elite ones like Wilson and Mahomes buy time to get kill shots down the field. Even the average ones often find themselves in better down and distance situations and have more of the playbook available to them. Lamar Jackson doesn't have to be Montana to command an elite offense, he merely has to be solid. 

The 2018 draft had five QBs in the first round, and the two best by far (Josh Allen and Jackson) were the super athletes, considered by many too raw to succeed. The Bills were mocked for taking Allen at No. 7 over pocket passer Josh Rosen, and Jackson fell to the Ravens with the last pick in the round after they had already taken Hayden Hurst. Last year's draft had Kyler Murray at the top, Daniel Jones at pick six, and worst-of-the-three, immobile Dwayne Haskins, at No. 15, even though most teams had Haskins rated above Jones. And this year the Chargers, despite taking him with the sixth overall pick, thought massive, athletic Justin Herbert was too raw to merit the starting job, and he's already proven them wrong. 

If I were a GM in the market for a QB, I'd look for a floor of accuracy and judgment, but would not spend a high pick on a quarterback that didn't at least have Daniel Jones or Carson Wentz-level mobility. The threshold for an immobile QB to be above average is unattainable for most prospects. Anything less than Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford isn't worth the trade-off, especially against the better defenses where conditions will usually be less than ideal. 

There will probably still be an oddball Brady, Manning or Brees prospect to come along every so often and play at a superstar level without rushing skills, but the era where that was the norm is gone, so long as the current rules remain in place. Most of the top QBs in the league are already mobile, and I imagine NFL front offices are, albeit slowly, starting to catch on too. 

Clearing Up The Situational Two-Point Conversion Try Beyond All Doubt

I'm offering this as a public service. My aim is to explain two apparently controversial decisions beyond all doubt. If one person reads what's about to follow with sufficient attention and is not convinced, I have failed, so I will try to be as clear as possible. 

(1) Down 14 In 4th Quarter 

Let's say you're down 14 in the fourth quarter and score a touchdown. You're now down eight. Some people believe you should kick the PAT, cut it to seven, so you can tie the game with a TD and another PAT. This is wrong. Let's go through the possibilities:

Assume for the sake of simplicity that (a) the PAT is 100 percent (which it obviously isn't, but that only cuts more in favor of my case); (b) the two point conversion is 48/52 against; and (c) you score twice unanswered (otherwise, you'll lose anyway.) 

Kicking The PAT

If you kick the PAT you trail by seven, and you'll only be tied and have to go to overtime if you score again, giving you a 50 percent chance to win. 

Odds to win: 50 percent

Going For Two

If you go for two, you have a 48 percent chance of being down six, and a 52 percent chance of being down eight. 

If you're down six, and you score again, you will have a 100 percent chance to win by kicking the PAT. So you have a 48 percent chance to win. 

If you fail, you'll be down eight, then you'll have to convert a two to tie on your subsequent TD, which is also 48 percent. And even if you do that, you'll still have to win in overtime (50/50.) So it's 52 percent (miss likelihood) times 48 percent (make likelihood) times 50 percent (OT win likelihood). The total is roughly 12.5 percent. 

Add the 48 percent (make the two) to the 12.5 percent (miss the two), and you have a 60.5 percent chance to win. 

Odds To Win: 60.5 percent

Of course your odds are much lower than that in both scenarios because you're neither guaranteed to score again, nor to stop the opponent from scoring again, but in those cases it doesn't matter what you do. 

(2) Down 15 In The 4th Quarter

Mike McCarthy got flak for this recently when he went for it in the Cowboys-Falcons game, but he did the right thing. 

To refresh, let's say you're down 15 in the 4th quarter and score a TD. You need to go for two now or later. Again, let's assume the percentages above, that you score again and that the opponent does not. 

(a) Kicking The PAT now, Go-For-2 Later

If you kick the PAT, you're down eight, and when you score again, you have to go for two. In that case, you have a 48 percent chance to tie (overtime) and a 52 percent chance to lose (miss the two-point attempt.)

Odds To See Overtime: (48 percent)

(b) Two Now, PAT Later

If you go for two right away, you have a 48 percent chance to make it and 52 percent chance to miss. If you make it, you're down seven and have a 100 percent chance to go to overtime if you score again. So that's 48 percent times 100 percent which is 48 percent. 

If you miss (52 percent), you will probably lose. You're now down nine. But you will move faster on your subsequent drive, knowing you need two scores instead of one and try an onside kick after you score. I don't know the exact percentages, but there is some chance you score quickly enough, get the onside kick and make the game winning field goal. Let's call it two percent. If you disagree with two percent, make it one percent or half of a percent, it doesn't matter. But there is some chance, whereas if you miss the two-point conversion at the end, there is none. 

Odds To See Overtime: (~50 percent)

Week 5 Sporcle Quiz

Apropos of running QBs taking over the game, can you name the active QBs with the best 40 times? (After the top-20, I skipped some scrubs to add the surprising times of some notable QBs.)

Guessing The Lines

It's laughable how off I am on so many of these lines and totals. I'm 6.5 points off on Giants-Cowboys, four points on Bills-Titans (love the Titans) and Cardinals-Jets (Flacco?) Even the 3.5-points on Dolphins-Niners and three on Jags-Texans and Bucs-Bears are huge. Probably doesn't bode well for me to be that far from the market. And the totals are no different. How are the Broncos-Patriots going to get to 48.5 if Cam Newton and Drew Lock are out? Maybe this assumes both will play. 

Week 4 Observations

• People (including me) have been slagging Carson Wentz all year, but he played his ass off in a road game against a tough defense with no offensive line and no receivers. Watching Wentz, and Danny Dimes earlier, it's obvious how much more coaches need to make use of their mobile QBs' running ability. The new rules and the advent of sliding has made it much safer, and teams with that option have a massive advantage.
• Jerick McKinnon is apparently the workhorse while Raheem Mostert is out. Jeff Wilson got carries last week because McKinnon hurt his ribs, and the game  was a blowout. McKinnon ran hard and showed good vision, but he's not nearly as explosive as Mostert.
• Brandon Aiyuk made an incredible hurdle on his TD run. The Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk, George Kittle (15-15-183-1) trio looks formidable... if only the Niners had even a decent, preferably mobile, QB, the offense might be Chiefs-level unstoppable.
• Nick Mullens threw one of the worst pick-sixes of all time. Even Philip Rivers and Jameis Winston were in awe.
• The Raiders aren't terrible, but Derek Carr will never be the rare superstar pocket passer that can overcome a lack of mobility in this running-QB era. Jon Gruden should have moved on.
• Hunter Renfrow looks good to me. He made tough, contested catches and has good quickness despite a lack of size or timed speed. The Raiders only got him the ball in garbage time, though.
• Josh Jacobs isn't getting open lanes anymore with the Raiders offensive line so banged up.
• Josh Allen had a scare after falling on his wrist, but returned to the game and delivered another 288 passing yards on 71-percent completion rate , 8.5 YPA, two passing TDs, a rushing TD, no picks and only one sack. Apparently he and Lamar Jackson were the QBs to get in 2018, over Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen. Athleticism over polish.
• Is the Colts defense elite, or is it mostly a function of playing against the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears?
• Philip Rivers is terrible. He misses open receivers, has no arm strength, no mobility and takes bad risks. He's a likeable guy and his constant trash talk is hilarious, but even if the Colts defense is as good as it looks, Rivers probably caps their ceiling.
• Jonathan Taylor got 17 carries, but only one target, and both Nyheim Hines (nine carries) and Jordan WIlkins (nine carries) cut into his workload. I still think Taylor will get his eventually, but right now this is a timeshare, and there aren't many running lanes given Rivers' inability to stretch the field.
• BDN (Nick Foles) was ineffective, except for the garbage time TD toss to Allen Robinson. It's amazing the Bears traded up to draft Mitchell Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, then paid big bucks for BDN when Cam Newton was available for free.
• The Giants defense played great except for the one third-down play where Cooper Kupp got loose for a long TD. The defensive line is stout, and James Bradberry and Blake Martinez look like A-plus offseason additions.
• Daniel Jones (as the booth was constantly pointing out) stares down his primary target too often and holds the ball too long. But he's an excellent runner and on the game sealing pick, could easily have run for a first down and gotten out of bounds around the 15-yard line. It was a great play by the DB to jump the route, but Jones did telegraph it.
• The Giants offensive line finally opened some running lanes, and Wayne Gallman and Devonta Freeman looked okay, though Saquon Barkley would have taken Gallman's 26-yard run to the house.
• Golden Tate and Jalen Ramsey have an off-field beef that exploded into a brawl after the game, and apparently Ramsey was waiting for Tate outside the locker room later. A real man never lets it go.
• I'm not sure why the Rams decided to stop using Darrell Henderson. Did he miss a block in pass pro?
• If you people cared about me, you wouldn't have let me make the Texans my best bet.
• Adam Thielen (10-8-114-1) re-established his No. 1 status, though Justin Jefferson (5-4-103) is here to stay. The Texans simply could not stop Dalvin Cook (27-130-2) when they needed to.
• Kyler Murray is a stat hog – he led the team in rushing by a mile, and threw three TD passes to unstartable receivers, but had had only 133 passing yards and 4.3 YPA against the Panthers.
• Kenyan Drake struggled before leaving with a chest injury and is looking like one of the bigger draft-day busts, even if it turns out he's okay.
• Mike Davis (16-84-1, 6-5-27) is Christian McCaffrey-lite in this offense. I'm glad I went big on him in FAAB in a league where I lost Barkley.
• Much as I'd like it to be D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson (11-8-99) is the Panthers No. 1 receiver.
• Mark Ingram scored a TD, but it's hard to use any of the Ravens running backs right now.
• The Ravens have two non-Lamar Jackson fantasy-worthy players: Marquise Brown (8-4-86) and Mark Andrews (3-3-57-2.) Like Murray, Jackson often hogs all the fantasy stats. Unlike Murray, Jackson is actually running a potent and efficient offense.
• Tom Brady (369 yards, 8.0 YPA, five TDs) shook off his second pick-six of the year to post monster numbers. He's getting a feel for the offense and will get Chris Godwin back, though O.J. Howard is out for the year with a torn ACL.
• With Leonard Fournette out, Ronald Jones had 20 carries and nine targets, but he dropped a couple of them. And while Jones ran hard, broke tackles and didn't get Brady killed, Keyshawn Vaughn caught the game-winning TD. Danger always lurks when you're counting on Ronald Jones.
• Justin Herbert (290 yards, 11.6 YPA three TD, one pick) looks like a player. It's crazy he was considered so far behind in camp, and had the team doctor not punctured poor Tyrod Taylor's lung, we wouldn't even know about this. How can a team take a player at No. 6 overall and not know what it has? Keep in mind Herbert was playing on the road against a good defense and without Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler for most of the game.
• Ekeler apparently has a hamstring/knee injury and will be out 4-6 weeks. I was out on Ekeler, but this will be me getting bailed out by an injury, as he was set to have a monster year with a better QB who was willing to get him the ball.
• It's strange the total in MIA-SEA wound up at 54 because for most of the game it was a boring, slow FG-fest. Russell Wilson got 360 yards, but threw his first real pick and only two TDs.
• I picked up and started Ryan Fitzpatrick in a couple leagues, and it wasn't pretty, but it worked – 315 passing yards, 47 rushing yards and a rushing TD. He threw two picks, but it was enough.
• DeVante Parker (12-10-110) left early with an injury but returned and was far and away the top target. Preston Williams has not yet been a factor, returning from last year's ACL tear.
• The Lions backs are like the Ravens', largely unusable. Adrian Peterson is Mark Ingram, D'Andre Swift is JK Dobbins and Kerryon Johnson is (a very poor man's) Gus Edwards.
• I almost started T.J. Hockenson over Kittle this week in one league, given the Saints troubles against TE and that Kittle was coming back from an injury. Thank God I didn't, though Hockenson did catch a TD.
• Alvin Kamara had a modest day as a pass catcher (4-3-36), but went 19-83-1 as a rusher. He always gets his. Latavius Murray (14-64-2, 2-1-19) actually outproduced him slightly.
• Emmanuel Sanders (9-6-93) is Drew Brees' top target with Michael Thomas still out, but Tre'Quan Smith (4-4-54-2) is having a micro breakout. Keep in mind Cook was also out.
• The Cowboys are terrible – they would be 0-4 but for the Falcons idly watching an onside kick roll 10 yards, but Dak Prescott – so long as he stays healthy – is bound to set some records. Through four games he has 1,690 passing yards, nine passing and three rushing TDs. Multiply by four, and you get 6,760 yards passing, 36 passing TDs, 344 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs.
• Ezekiel Elliott salvaged a quiet day on the ground with 8-8-71 as a receiver. The offensive line isn't what it was, and the defense is bad, so Elliott might be taking a different path to his points this year.
• Amari Cooper (16-12-134-1) is still the top dog, but there was plenty to go around for CeeDee Lamb (7-5-79-2) and Dalton Schultz (8-4-72-1.) The odd man out this time was Michael Gallup, but I wouldn't be especially concerned.
• I've been wrong about more than a few things this year, but not about what a healthy Odell Beckham might do. During a game where the Browns were ahead the entire way, and his quarterback had only 165 passing yards, Beckham went 8-5-81-2 as a receiver and had two carries for 73 yards and a game-sealing rushing TD. If only Mayfield had Jarvis Landry's absolute hose – Beckham's 50-yard TD was lasered by Landry on a trick play, something I was especially happy to see in one league.
• Nick Chubb left the game with an MCL tear and will miss roughly six weeks. Obviously, Kareem Hunt (11-71-2) would be massive were Chubb to miss time, though D'Ernest Johnson 13-for-95 saw more carries and looked good yesterday.
• As usual, Joe Mixon got off to a slow start this year, but made up for it and then some in Week 4 – 25-151-2, 6-6-30-1. In PPR leagues, that's 42 points.
• A.J. Green is probably done, but Tee Higgins (7-4-77) is starting to fill his role, while Tyler Boyd (8-7-90) is the steady-Eddie.
• Gardner Minshew put up big passing numbers again, now that DJ Chark (9-8-95-2) is back. Laviska Shenault (6-5-86) also contributed but only had one carry, as the team seems satisfied with fellow rookie rookie James Robinson (17-75-0, 4-4-32.)
• There were 10 field-goals of 50-plus yards attempted so far this week (Harrison Butker is still up Monday night), and eight were good. When Sam Ficken is drilling 54-yarders like it's no big deal, you know you're in the golden age of kicking. Put differently, Ficken and half the other modern-day kickers would be a Hall of Famers were they to time travel to the 1960s.
• Brian Hoyer was terrible. The sack at the end of the first half that cost them a field goal was unconscionable, and the sack-fumble in the red zone where he held the ball for 10 minutes was arguably worse. It's one thing when a young, mobile QB tries too hard to make a play, but an old, slow vet just needs to get rid of it.
• Jarrett Stidham wasn't much better. It's funny it was ever even considered a competition between him and Cam Newton. I saw a take (which sounds plausible) that the Pats talked up Stidham to get more leverage in acquiring Cam on the cheap: "Hey, we're set with our franchise QB for the next 10 years, so we're not going to offer you much, but sure, if you want a shot at a ring, we'll sign you for cheap and let you compete for a job."
• I mocked the attention given to Damien Harris all preseason, but he looked legitimately good, rushing for 100 yards on 17 carries. Cam Newton will still see most of the goal-line work when he returns, James White (8-7-38) is the preferred pass catcher and Rex Beasthead is still around, so the ceiling is modest, but Harris seems like a player.
• The Pats defense kept the Chiefs in check – KC scored 26 points, but one of the TDs was on a pick six, and the Pats DBs dropped two would-be interceptions. The referees also chipped in with a cheap personal foul on an out-of-bounds hit on Patrick Mahomes and an early whistle on what should have been a fumble and return for New England.
• Nearly all of the Chiefs key skill players contribute every week, but none has had a monster game yet. It's coming.
• Harrison Butker missed another PAT. He's more Greg The Leg than Justin Tucker.
• Julio Jones aggravated a hamstring injury and had to leave the game. Big receivers don't typically age well, and the older you the harder it is to shake off injuries. I'd expect him to miss some time.
• Calvin Ridley failed to catch any of his five targets, including a near-TD thrown behind him. Olamide Zaccheaus (9-8-86) led the receivers, but the Packers didn't give up big plays.
• Todd Gurley still has good vision, and his effort was good, but there's no explosiveness anymore. At least he scored twice.
• The Packers top three WR heading into camp were Davante Adams, Allen Lazard and Devin Funchess. Aaron Rodgers had none of them available, his No. 4 Marques Valdez-Scantling (8-4-45) did little and yet Rodgers still threw for 327 yards on 9.9 YPA with four TDs, no picks and only one sack. Russell Wilson and Josh Allen are having great years, but Rodgers should be in the MVP discussion too.
• Aaron Jones (15-71-0, 5-5-40-1) didn't have to work that hard as Jamaal Williams (8-10-0, 8-8-95) was also heavily involved.
• Robert Tonyan (6-6-98-3) was the fantasy star of the game, and that's probably not a fluke, as he's scored in three straight games and now has five TDs on the year. Apparently he also worked out with George Kittle this offseason. He's easily a top-10 TE  already and probably closer to top five.
• Now that Bill O'Brien broke the seal, so to speak, maybe Falcons coach Dan Quinn will be next.