This is our Sunday Night Football DFS breakdown, running through all the relevant player salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel while forecasting the potential game outcomes as the Buffalo Bills face the New England Patriots in Buffalo.
The undefeated Bills will likely get a win at home against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football, favored by 8.0 points and looking completely unstoppable on offense. The Patriots have made encouraging progress under the rebuilding direction of Mike Vrabel and might soon again be a worthy rival of the Bills, especially if Drake Maye can continue to grow as a starting quarterback, so it will be interesting to see if the Patriots can muster enough offense to keep pace with a Bills offense that will almost certainly score points. The over/under is set at 48.5.
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen ($12000 DK, $14200 FD) is close to a mandatory play in this one. Allen will have his down games like any player, but (A) not very often and (B) in this game the urgency should be substantial enough to encourage the Bills to reach a high point total. Particularly when it's a high-scoring game, Allen almost always puts up big numbers and is capable of seizing a high percentage of the Buffalo rushing production.
Drake Maye ($10000 DK, $12600 FD) is probably a safer fade than Allen, and it's possible the second-year quarterback falters somewhat in a hostile, high-visibility setting. Maye is still worth spending on, though, because his upside scenario is quite high as a dual-threat quarterback and he can even accumulate useful fantasy production in outcomes where he or/and the Patriots offense struggles. Playing catch-up for upwards of three quarters should encourage a relatively uptempo approach from the Patriots, which would be reassuring for Maye's usage volume.
RUNNING BACK
James Cook ($11400 DK, $13000 FD) is tough to fade in this one, especially with the Bills implementing such a varied and horizontal pass-catcher rotation. Cook won't necessarily have a monopoly on the rushing production – Allen can poach prime scoring opportunities and it wouldn't be shocking if the Bills gave Ray Davis ($400 DK, $3400 FD) a promotion game at some point if only to give Cook some rest, but in the meantime Cook is red-hot and if the Patriots make this a competitive game then Cook could see a big workload. Ty Johnson ($1400 DK, $2600 FD) probably can't take on the rushing volume that Davis can, but Johnson tends to play ahead of Davis as a subpackage specialist whenever Cook is healthy and the game is competitive.
There's a good chance that at least one of Rhamondre Stevenson ($4800 DK, $7200 FD), TreVeyon Henderson ($6800 DK, $10000 FD) or Antonio Gibson ($3800 DK, $5400 FD) proves a fine cashing pick in this game, and one of them could even pose an upside scenario given that all three are capable runners and pass catchers both. Guessing whether Stevenson, Henderson or Gibson will get the money play call or/and good luck in general is next to impossible, however – it's one of those cases where you might just need to make multiple rosters to hedge through the scenarios, or be resigned to the calculated risk of going underweight on one or more of the Patriots runners. It's possible none of the three does anything useful, too.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Khalil Shakir ($8200 DK, $10200 FD) is probably the most reliable Bills receiver as their primary slot man, and that one detail makes him somewhat challenging to fade. With that said, Shakir is not exactly cheap and his snap count in a given game only rarely makes it into the 40s, and on a snap count that limited he likely needs multiple touchdowns to provide a true upside scenario. Keon Coleman ($8000 DK, $7600 FD) is a bit cheaper and might warrant an equal or nearly equal projection to Shakir. Crucially, Coleman might be the better touchdown source of the two and might therefore be the better candidate to provide upside in a best-case scenario. If you fade Shakir or/and Coleman you might want to consider Dalton Kincaid ($7400 DK, $8600 FD), who to this point in the year has been a steady target for the Bills in high-leverage and scoring-range situations. The rest of the Bills route runners are justifiable punt picks but ones whose roles are not at all reliable. Joshua Palmer ($3000 DK, $5000 FD) was initially and should eventually again establish himself as the clear WR3, but in Week 4 he played just 15 snaps – fewer even than Elijah Moore ($1800 DK, $4600 FD) and Curtis Samuel ($1200 DK, $1400 FD). Tyrell Shavers played 14 snaps, too.
Even Kincaid's snap count is seemingly heavily capped – Jackson Hawes ($600 DK, $2200 FD) and
Dawson Knox ($1600 DK, $2000 FD) are both liable to play upwards of 30 snaps in any given game, though as blockers first they should be understood as punt plays.
For the Patriots Stefon Diggs ($7800 DK, $9200 FD) is the top name among the pass catchers, and one who could prove important on this one-game slate. Diggs has yet to log 50 snaps in a game this year, though, and it's possible that his availability remains slightly capped as he shakes off last year's ACL tear. While his snap count has been limited Diggs' effectiveness has been just fine – if he starts playing more snaps he could prove quite productive. Whether that occurs in this game specifically is unclear in the meantime. Kayshon Boutte ($5400 DK, $5800 FD) sees the most playing time among the Patriots wideouts and has the sort of downfield speed that the Bills corners can't easily match, but Boutte is likely a boom-or-bust proposition given how often he gets reduced to decoy functions. Mack Hollins ($2800 DK, $3800 FD) is your likely WR3.
As much as Diggs is the headlining pass catcher for New England, Hunter Henry ($7600 DK, $8200 FD) is arguably at least an equal value. Henry is a very capable pass catcher and tends to get active as a receiver whenever Maye has a productive day as a passer. Austin Hooper ($2400 DK, $2800 FD) is a justifiable punt play and better than most TE2s, but if the Patriots need to go three-wide to play catch-up then it's Hooper who gets pinched for playing time. Kyle Williams ($1000 DK, $1800 FD) has been quiet but the Patriots might give him more playing time if the returns continue to lag for Boutte and Hollins.
KICKER
The kickers in this game are less than inspiring, especially given the projected yardage and touchdown count in this matchup, but there might be a decent level of opportunity for Matt Prater ($5000 DK, $6800 FD) and to a lesser extent Andrea Borregales ($4600 DK, $6200 FD).
Prater might be a replacement kicker for Buffalo, but as long as they're moving into scoring range regularly there should be point opportunities. In Borregales' case he probably needs the Patriots to make the game closer than expected, otherwise the Patriots might need to chase first downs and touchdowns instead of field goals to keep up.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Patriots ($3400 DK, $6000 FD) are probably not an advisable start as road two-score underdogs. Even if Josh Allen has an off day as a passer, the Bills run game is strong enough at this point to carry the offense for entire games.
The Bills ($4200 DK, $6600 FD) are far from a compelled play in their own right – Drake Maye has thrown only two interceptions versus seven touchdowns in 2025 – but if the Bills really do take a two-score lead it could put Maye into a pressure situation that he hasn't seen yet, especially in a rowdy road setting.
