At 6-3 the home-team Chargers are second in the AFC West and the 5-3 Steelers rank first in AFC North, making Week 10's Sunday night game a high-stakes matchup for the AFC Super Bowl picture. The Chargers have the misfortune of trotting out an obliterated offensive line against a Pittsburgh pass rush with at least five concerning characters, which might even out the otherwise significant gap between Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
With an over/under of just 44.5 and the Chargers favored by 2.5, this game could be a grinding effort for both offenses against defenses capable of causing turnovers.
QUARTERBACK
Quarterbacks are usually an initial consideration on single-game slates and these two certainly have their respective cases for them, but the conditions might be challenging especially for Justin Herbert ($10600 DK, $13800 FD). Both the Pittsburgh linebackers and secondary are liable to get beat when offensive lines can clear out running room, but the Chargers probably aren't in any state to dictate the trenches. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh pass rush is one legitimate strength on their defense. Herbert can take a lot of hits and occasionally leans on his standout rushing ability, but it might need to be one of those games where big plays or/and rushing production drive any helpful fantasy outcomes. If the Chargers run game can somehow get going then it should make Herbert's task more manageable, but Kimani Vidal probably lacks the talent to overcome difficult conditions.
Aaron Rodgers might need a down game from the Chargers offense to prove a cashing-necessary pick, because while his 17 touchdown passes is an encouraging figure in eight games, his yardage high so far was 249 yards against the Bengals and he finished with fewer than 220 passing yards in five games. Eight of those touchdowns occurred in two games, too, leaving only nine for the other six. The floor is not all that assured and the ceiling is probably limited.
RUNNING BACK
Jaylen Warren ($9000 DK, $8400 FD) is a central consideration regardless of whether you assume a winning or losing script for the Steelers. If the Steelers win or/and produce to any notable extent on the ground then Warren very likely played a central role, and if the Steelers play from behind he has the chance to pad his fantasy point total with receptions. The Chargers are tough to run on inside, but Warren is a capable player on screens and outside runs. Kenneth Gainwell ($4000 DK, $5800 FD) can pop up off the bench but isn't as active or capable from scrimmage as Warren.
Kimani Vidal ($8800 DK, $10600 FD) might be a little expensive for a player of his modest skill set, at least as long as he's dealing with a group of backup offensive linemen who project for the disadvantage in the trenches as they do here. Jaret Patterson ($2800 DK, $4800 FD) played only 33 snaps over the last two weeks but could see increased opportunities at some point if Vidal continues to struggle.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Ladd McConkey ($9400 DK, $12200 FD) and Oronde Gadsden ($7000 DK, $7800 FD) are likely your top considerations among Chargers pass catchers. Keenan Allen ($8000 DK, $8200 FD) could also prove crucial in thwarting the Steelers pass rush, but the concern in his case is he only played 42 snaps over the last two weeks. There's a strong chance the Chargers were merely utilizing Allen something like a high-leverage relief pitcher in baseball – letting him rest the last two games given that he wasn't necessary, but with the willingness to unleash him in a setting like this, especially on third downs or in the red zone. Quentin Johnston ($7600 DK, $9200 FD) deserves a lot of credit for fighting through early-career struggles and is an entirely justifiable pick here, but the concern is that the Steelers pass rush might deny Justin Herbert the time necessary for Johnston to get downfield. The underneath is where the Chargers might need to throw, and in that range the standout targets are fairly clearly McConkey, Gadsden and Allen.
Tre' Harris ($2400 DK, $4000 FD) is a justifiable punt play given that he logged 72 snaps over the last two weeks, but a lot of that work was as a blocker and it's probably Harris specifically who would lose snaps if Allen sees a workload increase in this game. Tucker Fisk ($600 DK, $1000 FD) appears to be the new TE2 but has only three targets on the year – Fisk is more like a sixth offensive lineman than a recognizable tight end.
DK Metcalf ($8400 DK, $11400 FD) suffers from only sporadic usage, a byproduct of his linear game and Aaron Rodgers' strict passing volume limitations, but Metcalf never stays cold forever and his correction games can be uniquely explosive. The Chargers defense somewhat encourages downfield targets, too – their corners are zone specialists for lack of man coverage ability, and the run defense is tough, especially between the tackles. Calvin Austin ($6200 DK, $6200 FD) is a capable per-snap player but might be a little costly here given how often the Steelers run three-TE formations, and the recent emergence of Roman Wilson ($2000 DK, $3200 FD) probably presses Austin's margins further yet. Wilson has played roughly 30 snaps per game the last three weeks after logging only 59 snaps in the first five games.
The Steelers tight end gang is always liable to crash the party and help themselves to the meager pie of passing production, but guessing which of the three is simply a random task and arguably one worth avoiding given the limited upside in each case. Based on their production to this point, though, there's basis to argue that the general order of consideration should be Pat Freiermuth ($3400 DK, $5400 FD), then Darnell Washington ($3000 DK, $3600 FD), then Jonnu Smith ($3200 DK, $4400 FD).
KICKER
The kickers in this game are among the best in the league. Both of them are almost always central considerations on one-game slates and this is no exception. Sufficient opportunity for one doesn't necessarily need to come at the expense of the other, either, especially if both offenses generate field positioning without converting into touchdowns.
Chris Boswell ($5000 DK, $7000 FD) probably has slightly better range than Cameron Dicker ($5400 DK, $6600 FD) has good range in his own right and has been remarkably accurate to this point in his NFL career.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Either or both defenses might prove cashing-viable in this game.
The Steelers have weaknesses at the linebacker and cornerback spots, and in some games those weaknesses pretty much unravel the whole group. This probably won't be one such game because the one strength of the Steelers defense – the front five – projects so well against the backup-caliber Chargers offensive line that it might overrule the weaknesses. Justin Herbert is valiant but if the Chargers drop back so many as 25 times he will probably need to take some hits. If Herbert has or otherwise creates time for himself, though, then the Steelers could see the game get away from them a bit.
The Chargers are a much better schemed and coached defense than the Steelers nowadays, so the fact that the Chargers don't have that much talent on defense doesn't stop them from fielding a top-12ish unit or better most weeks. Aaron Rodgers has non-negotiable limitations at this point and the Steelers run game is far from dominant. If the Chargers run defense can hold up they might be able to put Rodgers in some difficult third-down spots.
