Last week was a breeze if you had the Bills, torture if you had the Bengals or Bucs, and fatal if you took the Saints or Titans. Roughly 30 percent of pools went down with those two teams.
Let's take a look at Week 5:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | TEXANS | 25.2% | 410 | 80.39 | 4.94 |
| BUCCANEERS | Dolphins | 23.1% | 450 | 81.82 | 4.20 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 17.8% | 310 | 75.61 | 4.34 |
| COWBOYS | Giants | 15.4% | 290 | 74.36 | 3.95 |
| RAVENS | Colts | 8.8% | 300 | 75.00 | 2.20 |
| RAIDERS | Bears | 3.3% | 220 | 68.75 | 1.03 |
| Titans | JAGUARS | 2.1% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.75 |
| Falcons | Jets*** | 1.3% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.52 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The usage numbers are split enough you should take whichever of the top five teams you prefer most. There's no major pot odds payoff here, so just focus on surviving and make your move in another week.
My Picks
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I already used them in Week 1, but they're my co-No. 1 this week at home against Miami, especially given Jacoby Brissett might have trouble exploiting their banged-up secondary. I give the Buccaneers an 81 percent chance to win this game.
1. New England Patriots
I don't love them coming off a tough, emotional loss, but in some ways it was a win for them as Tom Brady had to squeak it out against a vastly inferior opponent. The Texans with Davis Mills are
Last week was a breeze if you had the Bills, torture if you had the Bengals or Bucs, and fatal if you took the Saints or Titans. Roughly 30 percent of pools went down with those two teams.
Let's take a look at Week 5:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | TEXANS | 25.2% | 410 | 80.39 | 4.94 |
| BUCCANEERS | Dolphins | 23.1% | 450 | 81.82 | 4.20 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 17.8% | 310 | 75.61 | 4.34 |
| COWBOYS | Giants | 15.4% | 290 | 74.36 | 3.95 |
| RAVENS | Colts | 8.8% | 300 | 75.00 | 2.20 |
| RAIDERS | Bears | 3.3% | 220 | 68.75 | 1.03 |
| Titans | JAGUARS | 2.1% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.75 |
| Falcons | Jets*** | 1.3% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.52 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The usage numbers are split enough you should take whichever of the top five teams you prefer most. There's no major pot odds payoff here, so just focus on surviving and make your move in another week.
My Picks
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I already used them in Week 1, but they're my co-No. 1 this week at home against Miami, especially given Jacoby Brissett might have trouble exploiting their banged-up secondary. I give the Buccaneers an 81 percent chance to win this game.
1. New England Patriots
I don't love them coming off a tough, emotional loss, but in some ways it was a win for them as Tom Brady had to squeak it out against a vastly inferior opponent. The Texans with Davis Mills are a disaster, and the New England defense should smash them. I give the Patriots an 81 percent chance to win this game.
3. Minnesota Vikings
The 1-3 Vikings are a desperate animal, and for that reason I don't think they'll overlook the Lions. The Lions are a top-30 team, but they can't cover anyone, and I'd expect the Vikings to move the ball all day. I give the Vikings a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. Baltimore Ravens
I see the Colts giving them a game, but ultimately Carson Wentz isn't going to beat them, and Lamar Jackson looks more like the 2019 MVP version than last year's. I give the Ravens a 74 percent chance of winning this game.
5. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys defense has been impressive early on, and as such, they look like contenders. But the Giants woke up last week, and I think they'll play their divisional rival tough. I give the Cowboys a 73 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Las Vegas Raiders -- I'm not sure yet how good they are, and the Bears are not a doormat.
Tennessee Titans -- They just lost to the Jets, so they could easily lose to the Jaguars, especially if Trevor Lawrence plays the way he did against Cincinnati.
Atlanta Falcons -- No chance I'm taking a bad team in London.
