This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Before we get to specific player recommendations and discussion of the Thursday game, let's take a quick look at some of the key injury situations that are still up in the air (as of early Thursday afternoon) for Week 11:
Demaryius Thomas ($7,200) is already a strong option in a favorable matchup with the Bears, and he'll border on must-use status if Emmanuel Sanders (ankle/finger) doesn't play.
The Tampa Bay run defense has been legitimately dominant in recent weeks, but there's still some appeal in DeMarco Murray's ($6,000) combination of price and expected workload, or at least there will be if Ryan Mathews (concussion) can't play.
Jeremy Langford ($5,600) draws a tough matchup with the Denver defense, but given his pass-catching chops and expected workload, he'll be a solid option if Matt Forte (knee) doesn't play.
Lastly, I'll be keeping a close eye on the Arizona wide receivers, with both Michael Floyd (hamstring) and John Brown (hamstring) looking shaky. If either one can't play against the Bengals, both Larry Fitzgerald ($7,200) and Jaron Brown ($3,000) will be very intriguing. In the unlikely event that both Floyd and John Brown are unable to play, Jaron Brown will be one of my favorite options of the week. Fitzgerald is already a solid choice, though he does draw a touch matchup against Leon Hall in the slot.
Here are the top plays for Week 11 on DraftKings:
Quarterback
Derek Carr at DET ($6,300): Carr will probably be the most popular choice at his position this week, yet I still wouldn't hesitate to use him in tournaments. He has at least 22 DraftKings points in each of his last four games, despite facing some pretty solid pass defenses over that span. Now, he gets arguably his best matchup of the season, facing the woeful Detroit defense in a game that should feature plenty of throwing, with the added benefit of being played in a dome. The preferred stacking partner is Michael Crabtree ($6,000), as there's a decent chance Amari Cooper ($6,800) will be shadowed by underrated Lions cornerback Darius Slay. The other Detroit cornerbacks are injured, awful or both injured and awful.
Mark Sanchez vs. TB ($5,000): Sanchez will be quarterbacking the NFL's fastest-paced offense in a matchup with a defense that's excellent against the run but terrible against the pass. Those are pretty much the best circumstances one could ask for, until we remember that the Philadelphia passing game has been a complete disaster this season. I'm banking on the assumption that Sam Bradford was a big part of the problem, and while Sanchez obviously isn't any better than a low-end starter/high-end backup, he did average 277 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game in his eight starts for the 2014 Eagles.
Other options:Carson Palmer vs. CIN ($6,700); Tony Romo at MIA ($6,000); Matthew Stafford vs. OAK ($5,400); Tyrod Taylor at NE ($5,200)
Running Back
Darren McFadden at MIA ($5,000): While there's nothing wrong with a Romo-Dez stack, it's actually McFadden who carries the most favorable price tag among the key pieces of the Dallas offense. Essentially a lock for 20+ touches, the veteran running back should benefit greatly from finally playing alongside a decent quarterback. The only thing holding McFadden's price down is his lack of touchdowns, which is a direct result of the combined incompetence of Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel. It's hard to justify paying up for a high-end running back when you can get this kind of guaranteed workload in a favorable matchup for just $5,000. And yet, it won't be at all surprising if Adrian Peterson ($6,800) ends up with a higher ownership percentage, even on a full-PPR site.
Charcandrick West at MIA ($4,500): DraftKings must have a separate pricing algorithm for guys named Charcandrick – even at $6,000 or so, he'd be one of the top running back options of the week. Not that I'm actually sold on Mr. West as anything more than a mediocre real-life player, but it's tough to argue against three consecutive weeks with 24+ touches and at least 22 DraftKings points. Given that he's facing the league's last-ranked rush defense, West should be in every single lineup, cash game or tournament.
Other options:Devonta Freeman vs. IND ($8,400); Lamar Miller vs. DAL ($6,200); Latavius Murray at DET ($5,600); LeGarrette Blount vs. BUF ($5,000); Frank Gore at ATL ($4,700)
Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant at MIA ($7,700): Even with the expectation of high ownership, Bryant is an excellent tournament play at this price. He cost $8,700 back in Week 1, and with Tony Romo finally returning, Dez has as high of a ceiling as any wide receiver, including Julio Jones. The $8,700 price tag seems fairer than $7,700, given that Romo is expected to be at full health. Bryant's price never would have dropped this low if both he and Romo had stayed healthy.
Mike Evans at PHI ($7,300): Averaging 13 targets over his last four games, Evans is a legitimate threat to get 20 looks Sunday. The fast pace of Philadelphia's offense means more snaps for both teams, and there's a good chance the Eagles will have a lead for most of the game. It also helps that the Eagles are tough to run against, which could lead to a busy day for Jameis Winston. Evans is the best bet to lead the NFL in targets this week, ahead of even DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones.
Stevie Johnson vs. KC ($3,900): With Keenan Allen (kidney), Malcom Floyd (shoulder) and Ladarius Green (ankle) all expected to miss Sunday's game, the San Diego passing attack will rely on Johnson, Antonio Gates, Danny Woodhead and Dontrelle Inman. That means Johnson has a decent shot to see double-digit targets for a second straight game, after catching seven passes for 68 yards in his last contest. He's a far better play than Danny Amendola, yet he'll still have a much lower ownership percentage.
Other options:Julio Jones vs. IND ($9,100); Demaryius Thomas at CHI ($7,300); Calvin Johnson vs. OAK ($7,200); Larry Fitzgerald vs. CIN ($7,200); Michael Crabtree at DET ($6,000); Sammy Watkins at NE ($4,800); Golden Tate vs. OAK ($4,600); Marvin Jones at ARI ($4,300)
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski vs. BUF ($7,700): Everyone will be loading up on Danny Amendola ($4,000), and while I don't think that's a bad strategy for cash games, the pint-sized slot man isn't the elite play that most are making him out to be. Julian Edelman's snaps and targets will likely be divided between a bunch of different players, and it's far from certain that Amendola will actually get a big boost. Given the matchup with Buffalo's lousy run defense, I'm actually expecting a lot of two-tight end sets, with a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount setting up play-action passes to Gronkowski, Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler. There's no assurance Amendola will even be on the field in two-wide formations, whereas Gronkowski never leaves the field unless he's injured or needs a quick breather. Also, Amendola can easily end up with a 5-50-0 receiving line, even if he's used the way that everyone is assuming.
Other options:Antonio Gates vs. KC ($4,800); Zach Ertz vs. TB ($3,100)
Team Defense/Special Teams
Chicago Bears vs. DEN ($2,000): Even though I'm somewhat optimistic about Brock Osweiler, there's still plenty of appeal in a minimum-priced defense that's facing a first-time starter behind a shaky offensive line. This selection is obviously motivated by the combination of price, matchup and home-field advantage, but it is worth noting that the lousy Chicago defense has actually played pretty well the last two weeks.
Other options: Seattle Seahawks vs. SF ($4,000); Carolina Panthers vs. WAS ($3,400); Philadelphia Eagles vs. TB ($3,100); New York Jets at HOU ($3,000); Baltimore Ravens vs. STL ($2,700); Tampa Bay Buccaneers at PHI ($3,000)
Thursday Night Game
Allen Robinson ($7,000) and Delanie Walker ($4,800) would both be solid plays under normal circumstances, but they're the obvious choices for anyone who wants a piece of the Thursday night game, and there are better players at their respective positions in the same price range. T.J. Yeldon ($4,800) and Dorial Green-Beckham ($3,200) might also be somewhat intriguing, if not for the plethora of cheap options available this week. All in all, I'll probably be fading this game across the board, even though there is some decent value available. If anything, I might throw in one Mariota-DGB-Walker stack, but only because the Jacksonville pass defense is so atrocious.
