This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
VALERO TEXAS OPEN
Purse: $9.2M
Winner's Share: $1.656M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Course: TPC San Antonio (The Oaks Course)
Yardage: 7,438
Par: 72
2023 champion: Corey Conners
Tournament Preview
The plan of a attack for many top golfers leading up to a major traditionally has been to play a tournament two weeks before, then take the next week off to rest and maybe get to the major venue a few days early. Not everyone, mind you, but playing two weeks before has often been the sweet spot. This week, as we've seen so often in golf the past few years, tradition has gone out the window. Which is a very good thing for the Valero Texas Open.
World No. 2 Rory McIlroy leads four top-10 golfers and 11 of the top 25 into TPC San Antonio in the final tuneup for next week's Masters. Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Brian Harman, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Rickie Fowler and defending champion Corey Conners give this 156-man field the star power it hasn't seen in, well, ever. Last year, there were zero top-10s and just two-top-25s.
At last week's Houston Open, with a course a bit more more Augusta-like than TPC San Antonio, there were just four golfers ranked in the top-25. The early-season onsalught of Signature events may have something to do with this flip-flop, though it's hard to know for sure. But alll those big-money events certainly had a lot to do with some of the top guys not playing for two or even three weeks before the Masters.
Every one of the guys mentioned above is already in the 88-man Augusta field. One spot remains -- and only for this week's winner, if he's not already in. The chances of that happening are very slim. But as J.J. Spaun will tell you, it can happen. It happened to him two years ago. Some of the best players still on the outside of the Masters looking in who are playing this week are Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Alex Noren, Keith Mitchell, Billy Horschel, Matt Kuchar and Maverick McNealy. Before Spaun, the last player to qualify the week prior to Masters was Ian Poulter, at the 2018 Houston Open.
Two of the three players granted special Masters invites by Augusta National Golf Club, Thorbjorn Olesen and Ryo Hisatsune, are in San Antonio. The third, Joaquin Niemann, is not eligible because he's with LIV Golf.
FYI, the Valero field is up from 144 in the past, just like what happened at the Valspar a few weeks back, as the PGA Tour tries to give guys not in the Signature events more opportunities to play and to perhaps get into the big tournaments.
The Texas Open has had quite a history. It began way back in 1922 and, as you'll recall, Bob McDonald edged Cyril Walker by a stroke to pocket a cool 1,500 bucks. This is the seventh oldest pro tournament in the world, behind only the Open Championship, U.S. Open, PGA Championship and the South African, Canadian and Western (now the BMW) Opens. The Valero is the only one of the six to be played in the same city the entire time, that being San Antonio.
There is so much history steeped in this tournament. It's been around so long that Walter Hagen once won it. So has Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan and Sam Snead. And Arnold Palmer -- three times. It had been moved around a great deal before being given the coveted slot before the Masters FIVE years ago. (To be honest, that would not have happened without Valero Energy Corporation, the title sponsor since 2002, re-upping for 10 years through 2028.) It's been played winter, spring, summer and fall. That's right -- January, February, March, April, May, September, October and even November.
The Oaks Course is -- and Jay Monahan must love this -- a 2010 Greg Norman design with consulting by Sergio Garcia. There's also another course at TPC San Antonio built by Pete Dye, so it's interesting that Norman's is the championship 18. The course is long and has some very long holes, including two 600-yarders and another par-5 at 591. There are five par-4s at about 450-plus. Two of the par-3s exceed 200 yards, one of them a mammoth 241. However, another par-3, the 213-yard 3rd hole, was reduced a few years ago to 171 yards on the scorecard. No matter, this course still sounds like it would suit Norman just fine back in his hey day -- you know, when the PGA Tour was his first choice of tours.
There are towering oak trees that line the narrow fairways (around 25-30 yards), water on three holes and some of the 64 bunkers are enormous, including two bigger than many PGA Tour greens. There is a lot of native land that can lead to very crooked numbers. Kevin Na famously found a native area on the par-4, 474-yard 9th hole in 2011, and he eventually walked off with a 16. Despite all those pitfalls, the week could very well tip on the wind, and how hard it's blowing down around San Antone. These are some of the toughest greens to hit in regulation, even though they are medium-sized at an average of 6,400 square feet. The bermudagrass-with-poa-trivialis-overseed putting surfaces run a so-so 11 on the Stimpmeter, but many have undulations and multiple levels. They did make things a bit easier in 2019, however, cutting the rough (now 2.25 inches), perhaps to better mimic Augusta. Whatever the reason, Conners shot 20-under in winning here for the first time that year, the highest winning score at The Oaks in a decade -- by three shots. Spieth followed up at 18-under three years ago. Two years ago, things reversed course. Spaun won in windy conditions at 13-under, which was more in line with what we used to see at this tournament. Conners won for the second time last year at 15-under.
As for the weather, high temps will be close to 80 all four days, and there is at least a little chance of rain every day. The wind is forecast to be blowing double digits throughout, except maybe on Saturday.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC San Antonio
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par-3 Scoring 200-225 yards
• Par-4 Scoring 450-500 yards
• Par-5 Scoring 550-600 yards
Past Champions
2023 - Corey Conners
2022 - J.J. Spaun
2021 - Jordan Spieth
2020 - None
2019 - Corey Conners
2018 - Andrew Landry
2017 - Kevin Chappell
2016 - Charley Hoffman
2015 - Jimmy Walker
2014 - Steven Bowditch
Champion's Profile
For the first eight years at The Oaks, the winning score was between 8- and 14-under. Then it jumped for three straight years before returning to that range with Spaun's 13-under two years ago and just missing last year with Conners' 15-under. What hasn't changed is a focus on guys with strong ball striking/tee-to-green games. Neither Spaun nor Conners was long with his driver, but they were accurate and ranked 10th and 8th in SG: Off-the-Tee, respectively. Conners ranked second in fairways hit, first in greens in regulation, first in SG: Approach and first in SG: Tee-to-Green, while 41st in SG: Putting. The top three in Tee-to-Green all finished in the top-5 on the leaderboard. Three years ago, Spieth ranked fourth in SG: Approach and third in SG: Tee-to-Green, plus third in SG: Around-the-Green and sixth in Putting. Whether the scores have been higher or lower, the winner has displayed a balanced game with decent play in all statistical areas.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Hideki Matsuyama - $10,900 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +2000)
Matsuyama has declared himself healthy after a few years of neck/back issues, and his recent play has been convincing evidence. In his past six starts, he's had a win (Riviera), a T6, two top-15s and another top-25. Matsuyama's approach play has been spectacular, and he's taming the long par-4s and 5s. He tied for 15th here a year ago -- when his injuries were much more of a factor than now.
Ludvig Aberg - $10,500 (+1200)
Aberg did great in California and Florida after a subpar two weeks in Hawaii to start the year. He's got five top-25s in a row, three of which were top-10s. He was solo eighth at THE PLAYERS. The key for him this week will be keeping his drives in the fairway. If he can do that, he'll have a huge edge on the field. Aberg is one of the best around at bogey avoidance.
Matt Fitzpatrick - $9,700 (+2500)
Fitzpatrick does not grade all that well in our model, though inside the cut line. It doesn't take into account the driver adjustment that he made just before THE PLAYERS, and he wound up solo fifth. Fitzpatrick has not played TPC San Antonio before, but he's got the game to contend there.
Tier 2 Values
Corey Conners - $9,400 (+2500)
It's kind of hard to ignore the guy who's won twice here in the past five years. Conners was also 14th in 2021. After a slow start to 2024, he has been trending upward with three top-25s in his past four starts, including 13th at THE PLAYERS. He ranks third overall in our model thanks to his elite approach and tee-to-green play -- and despite a putter that leaves him in the bottom quarter of the field.
Byeong Hun An - $9,000 (+3000)
An hasn't played here every year, but he does have two top-10s, including a tie for sixth last year. Like with Conners, he's a great ball striker who is challenged on the greens. And yet, he's ranked 79th on the season on Tour in SG: Putting. The area that should be most concerning to An and his backers this week is fairway accuracy. But he's managed three top-10s and two other top-25s this season spraying his drives all over the place. He won't get away with that this week.
Billy Horschel - $8,900 (+3500)
About a month ago, the future did not look bright for Horschel. He had mustered just one top-10 in almost a year as his world ranking plummeted close to the century mark. Now, he arrives with two top-10s and another top-12 in his past four starts, and he's looking like the Horschel of old. He'll still have to win this week to get into the Masters, however. Horschel hasn't played this tournament in five years, but long ago he did well here, with top-5s in 2013, 2015 and 2016.
Alex Noren - $8,700 (+3000)
Noren might be the best player right now who hasn't qualified for the Masters, and he needs to win to get in. He was on the fringe of contention last week, tying for 11th to give him three straight top-20s. Noren actually grades No. 1 overall in our model, leading the field over his past 24 rounds in bogey avoidance and par-5 550-600 efficiency.
Tier 3 Values
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - $7,900 (+4500)
Bezuidenhout is the highest-ranked player not yet in the Masters. He curiously did not play last week, in a far weaker field, needing maybe only a top-10 to move from 55th OWGR to 50th. Now, in a loaded field, he needs to win to get to Augusta. He may have needed a blow after playing nine times already in 2024, he should've tried to suck it up. After all, he was still playing great, as he has all season, with a T9 at the Valspar after a T13 at THE PLAYERS.
Aaron Rai - $7,800 (+5500)
Rai is back to his awesome ball-striking ways, making him a great fit this week. He finished top-30 here the past two years. Nobody in this field is better at hitting the fairway than Rai, who is also among the best in approach, tee-to-green and bogey avoidance. His putting is below average for this field, but not by much. Rai tied for seventh last week in Houston.
Keith Mitchell - $7,600 (+6500)
Mitchell not unexpectedly trunk-slammed last week after his soul-crushing final round at the Valspar. He had the 54-hole lead only to shoot 77. It interrupted a great season to date, and we think Mitchell has gotten the woe-is-me out of his system. He grades top-10 in our model based on the best approach and tee-to-green stats in this field. Mitchell last played here in 2021, when he tied for 17th.
Andrew Putnam - $7,200 (+7000)
Putnam will be challenged off the tee on this long track, but he has made four of his past five cuts here, including a top-10 back in 2018. He's among the best putters in this field and also at avoiding bogeys. Putnam tied for eighth at a very long Bay Hill course and also made the cut at Riviera and TPC Sawgrass.
Mark Hubbard - $7,000 (+9000)
Hubbard has not missed a cut in nine starts in 2024. That despite being one of the shorter hitters on Tour. But he gets the ball in the fairway, putts well and ranks 27th in this field over his past 24 rounds in SG: Tee-to-Green. Curiously, our model shows him as one of the best guys in the field in par-5 550-660 efficiency.
Long-Shot Values
Doug Ghim - $6,900 (+8000)
We turned away from Ghim last week, thinking he might be a big gassed after all his quality play across nine starts in 2024. He missed the cut. That sort of works as extra rest with the weekend off, so we are back on the Ghim bandwagon. He's one of the most accurate drivers and iron players in the field, and his putting has been vastly improved this year.
Andrew Novak - $6,500 (+10000)
We were on Novak last week and he made the cut. Our model ranks him top-10 in this field in tee-to-green and bogey avoidance. He's ranked 16th on Tour in SG: Approach. Novak tied for ninth here last year.
Greyson Sigg - $6,000 (+15000)
Sigg is one of the worst putters in this field, but he's among the best at just about everything else needed to succeed this week -- ranked top-25 in the field over his past 24 rounds in SG: Approach and bogey avoidance, and just outside that in SG: Tee-to-Green. That paints a picture of a made cut without a high finish, which was the case a couple of weeks ago when we tabbed Sigg at the Valspar. He also made the cut last week at Houston.
Justin Lower - $5,700 (+20000)
Lower doesn't play well every week, but he's had some halfway decent finishes of late. He was T28 last week in Houston, T36 at Bay Hill and even T3 at Mexico. None of those courses has fairways as narrow as this week, yet Lower is pretty good at hitting fairways. He's also top-50 on Tour in SG: Approach.
Ben Martin - $5,600 (+30000)
Martin has not been great in 2024, he's not been terrible. He's made five of eight cuts. But he does love himself some San Antonio, where he's made four straight cuts, including last year's T10. He lands well inside the cut line in our model, thanks largely to strong approach play.
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