This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
John Deere Classic
Course: TPC Deere Run (7,289 yards, par 71)
Purse: $8,000,000
Winner: $1,440,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The John Deere Classic is the event that really launched Jordan Spieth into stardom when he holed out for birdie on the 72nd hole to force a playoff that he would eventually win over Zach Johnson and David Hearn. Spieth would become the youngest winner on the PGA Tour since World War II at the age of 19. He came back the following year and finished T7 in his title defense and then also came back in 2015 the week before the Open Championship. That was quite the commitment for Spieth to do given he had already won the first two legs of the Grand Slam, but he would win the John Deere Classic again in a playoff over Tom Gillis before going over to St Andrews and coming agonizingly short of reaching a playoff for the Open Championship. This year Spieth returns to Silvis, Illinois for the first time since 2015 and enters the week as the betting favorite after Patrick Cantlay elected to withdraw. It will be a change on how Spieth has prepped for the Open Championship in recent years going to play the John Deere Classic and likely skipping the Genesis Scottish Open next week. After a strong start to 2024, Spieth is hoping to find some form again in a familiar place as he has just one top-25 finish in his last 14 starts.
Spieth of course is not the only player with big goals this week as we continue to get closer to the FedExCup Playoffs cutoff. Sepp Straka will be looking to defend his title after firing a nine-under 62 on Sunday to win by two strokes. That round by Straka looked to be destined to join Paul Goydos (2010) as the second player to shoot a sub-60 round at TPC Deere Run, but he missed a short birdie putt on the par-5 17th and then actually made a double-bogey on the tough par-4 18th closing hole. Jason Day, who went blow for blow with Spieth for much of 2015, is also making his return to the John Deere Classic for the first time since 2011. Sungjae Im and Denny McCarthy are the only other players in the top-40 of the OWGR teeing it up this week.
Much was made of all the young players getting a shot at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week and there will be plenty of them out there this week as well. Luke Clanton, who finished T10 in Detroit, will look for another strong showing in the Quad Cities. Low amateur at the Masters and U.S. Open, Neal Shipley, is back in the field after a T20 in Detroit. No. 1 on the PGA Tour University rankings, Michael Thorbjornsen, is hoping to continue to get comfortable as a pro on Tour. He finished T17 last year at the John Deere after getting a sponsors exemption. Jackson Buchanan was the Big Ten Golfer of the Year in 2024 and will be in the field alongside Cole Sherwood, who finished No. 7 in the PGA Tour University rankings following an All-SEC First Team selection. Harry Higgs isn't a youngster, but will make his sixth start on the PGA Tour this season after already clinching a return to full status in 2025 behind back-to-back wins on the Korn Ferry Tour.
TPC Deere run is known to be one of the most gettable courses on the PGA Tour. The winning score has been at least 18-under-par in each of the last 14 events, including when Michael Kim shot a tournament-record 27-under-par to win by eight in 2018. It would still be surprising if we didn't see at least an 18-under-par number this week, but it looks as if the players will have to contend with some rain in the forecast on Thursday and some very gusty winds on Friday. The weekend looks to be relatively straightforward apart from a potential pop up thunderstorm at some point. Safe to say we should see plenty of fireworks coming home this week and the top two highest finishing players not otherwise exempt will earn a spot at the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon.
Recent Champions
2023 - Sepp Straka (-21)
2022 - J.T. Poston (-21)
2021 - Lucas Glover (-19)
2020 - None
2019 - Dylan Frittelli (-21)
2018 - Michael Kim (-27)
2017 - Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
2016 - Ryan Moore (-22)
2015 - Jordan Spieth (-19)
2014 - Brian Harman (-22)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR percentage
- SG: Putting/Putts per GIR
- Proximity from 50-125 yards
- Birdie Average
Champion's Profile
Unlike Detroit Golf Club last week, distance really has not been a big factor at TPC Deere Run. Most of the champions since the John Deere Classic has been hosted here starting in 2000 have been very good wedge players and putters. Names like Spieth, Steve Stricker, Johnson and Harman certainly come to mind. If you just drive the ball in the fairway, even if that means taking out a three-wood, most players are going to have in the neighborhood of 7-8 wedge shots into just the par-4s. That doesn't even include the three par-5s out there, which all can be reachable in two shots depending on the wind.
With a large number of wedge shots and a pretty high expected GIR percentage, I think we can avoid concerning ourselves too heavily with scrambling numbers and around-the-green play. If players are able to put it in the right spot coming into the greens, the putts they get should be relatively straightforward. Proximity from 50-125 yards should encapsulate a lot this week and definitely would not be a bad stat to tap into. It sounds simple but we are looking at birdie makers at TPC Deere Run and hitting it close and sinking putts is the best way to do that.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Sungjae Im ($11,600)
Im is a birdie machine who thrives at easier venues like this. He is coming off a T3 at the Travelers Championship which was his sixth straight top-12 finish in a non-major. Im has gained in 11 straight starts off the tee and started to really tighten his approach game up after a tough start to the season in that department. He has shown the ability to pop with the putter recently and PGA Tour win No. 3 feels very much in play for him this week.
Aaron Rai ($11,500)
PGA Tour win No. 1 does not seem far away from the Englishman. Rai finished just one shot shy of a potential playoff last week in Detroit. It was his seventh straight made cut and fifth top-25 in that stretch. Rai continues to be a ball-striking menace at seventh in driving accuracy, sixth in SG: Approach and second in GIR percentage. He is also developing confidence on the greens, having ranked top-10 in SG: Putting last week.
Davis Thompson ($11,100)
Speaking of great ball strikers making strides on the greens, Thompson is nearing his first win on Tour as well after a co-runner-up in Detroit. That was his third top-10 and seventh top-25 in his last 11 starts. Thompson is top-25 is top-25 this season in GIR percentage, SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green. He is also 38th in putts per GIR and gained on the greens in three straight events. Thompson ranked seventh in SG: Putting last year at TPC Deere Run.
The Middle Tier
Seamus Power ($9,600)
TPC Deere Run is a place that Power has enjoyed over the years. He's never missed a cut in five starts and has four top-25s to his name and gained strokes on the greens on every occasion. Power has been improving on approach gaining strokes coming into the greens in four of his last five starts and gained on the greens in his last three. He's been lurking with eight finishes of T31 or better over his last 14 starts, and this appears to be a prime spot for his first top-10.
Andrew Novak ($9,500)
Novak is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes, but he has played some really good golf for some time now. Over his last 13 starts he has missed just two cuts to go along with seven top-25 finishes. He is a great ball-striker as he ranks 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 16th in GIR percentage, and 14th in proximity. Novak's putting has also been much better ranking 50th in putts per GIR and he was second in SG: Putting in Detroit last week.
Michael Kim ($9,300)
In a week where we want birdie makers, why not fire up the guy who ranks third in birdie average this season behind Scottie Scheffler and Byeong Hun An. Kim has been rolling of late with top-20 finishes in four of his last seven starts. His combination of iron play and putting will put him in a great spot this week at a place he has great memories winning in runaway fashion in 2018. Kim is 31st in GIR percentage and 23rd in putts per GIR this season.
The Long Shots
David Skinns ($8,400)
It's hard to argue with the results and numbers that the Englishman has been putting up recently. He finished T21 or better in five of his last eight starts. Skinns has been a terrific iron player this season ranking 23rd in SG: Approach and 10th in GIR percentage. He is also top-80 in SG: Putting and putts per GIR. Skinns leads the PGA Tour in par-3 scoring average and it would be hard to not see him on the top couple pages on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.
Patton Kizzire ($8,100)
Kizzire brings a ton of value in this field. For one, he has really turned it on after a stretch where he missed six straight cuts on the PGA Tour. Since then he has finished outside the top 30 just once in six starts. His iron play has been as good as it ever has in his career ranking eighth in SG: Approach, fourth in GIR percentage and 15th in proximity 50-125 yards this season. Kizzire is also ninth in birdie average, fourth in par-4 scoring and has four top-30s in five starts here.
Ryan Moore ($7,800)
Looking at his recent play likely won't inspire much confidence, but much like the Valspar Championship where he finished T5, Moore has a great history at the John Deere Classic. He has gone 12-for-14 in his career with a win in 2016 among four top-10s and eight top-30s. His iron play is still as sharp as ever at 20th in SG: Approach and ninth in proximity to the hole. While Moore's putting has been off, he seemingly always putts these bentgrass surfaces well at TPC Deere Run.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
With this being such a weak field you have to train your mind to tune out seeing some big prices next to a lot of players who typically find themselves significantly lower on the salary board. This is another week where you can play some pretty solid golf and just not make enough putts to make the cut, which is almost guaranteed to be a few shots under-par. You certainly want to lean on players who are starting to round into form on the greens and also those who are giving themselves a lot of quality looks for birdies with strong approach play. A few other players not mentioned above that fit those requirements are Jacob Bridgeman ($8,900), Dylan Wu ($8,800), Chandler Phillips ($8,500) and Joel Dahmen ($8,300).
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