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The Honda Classic
An international field of players will take on the infamous "Bear Trap" (Holes No. 15-17) this week at PGA National, which is among the hardest three-hole stretches on the PGA Tour. The Honda Classic begins the "Florida Swing," which is made up of four tournaments and includes THE PLAYERS Championship, the PGA Tour's flagship event. PGA National tips at 7,125 yards and is a stock par 70 with only two par-5s.
Profiling the Winner
PGA National is annually one of the most difficult tracks on the PGA Tour. Its firm greens and customary high winds have led to the lowest winning score in its 15-year history of hosting this event being the 13-under-par number Camilo Villegas finished at back in 2010.
There is trouble lurking around every corner of PGA National, so the double-bogeys – or worse – will come in bunches. Quality ball striking will be necessary to contend. Last season, Matt Jones dusted the field by five shots and led in SG: Tee-to-Green. In 2020, when Sungjae Im picked up his first PGA Tour win he also led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and was T2 in GIR percentage.
Length is generally not a huge factor at PGA National, but being able to consistently hit fairways and greens in regulation will be the biggest challenges in gusty winds. Similar to last week's Genesis Invitational at Riviera, GIR numbers will be very low compared to PGA Tour average, meaning players with good short games also have the ability to excel. We will also see an adjustment for players as we move to Florida, as they will now be putting on bermudagrass greens after seeing mostly poa annua grass during the "West Coast Swing." PGA National will run about 12 on the Stimpmeter for The Honda Classic.
Category Picks
Premium Picks
Players included: Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger
Guru Verdict: Im has to be the guy. He followed up his victory here in 2020 with a T8 finish in 2021. Im has missed just one cut in nine starts this season with six top-20 finishes. The 23-year-old ranks 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee, second in SG: Around-the-Green, seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 11th in GIR percentage. Niemann is coming off a wire-to-wire win at Riviera, but there is a good chance that was pretty draining.
Frontrunners
Players included: Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Billy Horschel, Cameron Tringale
Guru Verdict: In two appearances at PGA National, Fleetwood has finished fourth and third. He has also posted top-12 finishes in each of his last two starts worldwide. Fleetwood is one of the best in the wind at controlling his trajectories and grinding around the greens. Lowry is a similar type of player who finished top-25 in his last four starts.
Big Hitters
Players included: Matthew Wolff, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland, Keith Mitchell, Matt Jones, Alex Noren
Guru Verdict: Mitchell is the hottest player in this group. In his last five starts, Mitchell owns four top-12 finishes. The 2019 Honda Classic winner ranks third this season in SG: Off-the-Tee and 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Vegas is another great driver who finished top-30 in five of his last seven starts at PGA National.
Challengers
Players included: Brian Harman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Mito Pereira, Mackenzie Hughes, Patrick Reed, Cameron Young
Guru Verdict: Pereira is coming off a T15 last week at Riviera, a course that requires a similar skill set to PGA National. On the season, Periera ranks 14th in SG: Approach and 29th in GIR percentage. The rookie, Young, impressed a lot of people with a T2 showing at the Genesis Invitational with his power and touch on the greens.
Contenders
Players included: Rickie Fowler, Ryan Palmer, Denny McCarthy, Lee Westwood, Lucas Glover, Chris Kirk
Guru Verdict: This is one of the toughest categories of the week. McCarthy, after recording five top-15 finishes over his last seven starts, gets the edge thanks to his form. The 28-year-old also finished third at PGA National last season and is top-20 on the PGA Tour this season in SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Putting, driving accuracy and scrambling. Both Fowler and Westwood have very good records at PGA National as well.
DP World Tour Stars
Players included: Nicolai Hojgaard, Ian Poulter, Aaron Rai, Martin Kaymer, Garrick Higgo, Dylan Frittelli, Danny Willett
Guru Verdict: It's really hard to look past the talent of the 20-year-old phenom Hojgaard. He won twice in the last five months and notched two other top-5 finishes in that stretch. Hojgaard can absolutely bomb it down the fairway and ranked 13th in GIR percentage on the DP World Tour last season. None of the other players in this category have been great ball strikers this season and Kaymer has not teed it up yet in 2022.
Outsiders
Players included: Brendan Steele, Lucas Herbert, Charles Howell III, Brendan Todd, Aaron Wise, Harry Higgs, Hudson Swafford
Guru Verdict: Wise is the most talented player in this category and is gaining strokes in all measured categories this season. Wise has also finished top-35 in all three of his trips to PGA National, including a T13 last season. Herbert is both long and a terrific putter who has a win and three other top-25's in his last seven starts.
Wild cards
Players included: Patrick Rodgers, Beau Hossler, Stewart Cink, Sepp Straka, Russell Knox, Zach Johnson, Greyson Sigg
Guru Verdict: Knox has been one of the most accurate ball strikers on Tour over the last few years. This season he ranks eighth in SG: Approach, 21st in driving accuracy, third in GIR percentage and 12th in proximity to the hole. The Scot finished exactly T33 the last three weeks and has two career top-3 finishes at PGA National. Cink has never missed a cut in 11 career starts at The Honda Classic, but only one of those resulted in a top-25.
The Selections
Premium Picks: Sungjae Im
Frontrunners: Tommy Fleetwood
Big Hitters: Keith Mitchell
Challengers: Mito Pereira
Contenders: Denny McCarthy
DP World Tour Stars: Nicolai Hojgaard
Outsiders: Aaron Wise
Wild Cards: Russell Knox
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