Weekly Preview: The Masters

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

The Masters

Augusta National Golf Club
Augusta, GA

The PGA Tour heads to Augusta for the first major of the season.

As is custom around here, when a big event is up next, we don't spend much time looking back, so I'll say congrats Corey Conners and let's take a look at what to expect this week. 

As we dive into storylines for this year's Masters, at the top of the list are two of the best players in the world. Scottie Scheffler will attempt to defend his title -- something that's proven to be very difficult at the Masters over the past couple decades -- and Rory McIlroy, who's been trying to win a fifth major for nearly a decade. Not only would he break that streak with a win, he would also complete the Career Grand Slam. It's a big week for Rory, a guy who enters with his game in good shape, but are expectations too high? Maybe that should only have a minimal effect, but how often do you see the guy everyone expects to win actually do so? For this exercise let's exclude Tiger Woods, because he was on another planet in his prime. Brooks Koepka had a run where he seemed to do what was expected, but other than that, it's hard to think of anyone who plays great when the masses expect it. Perhaps it's all about pressure -- the less people talk about you, the easier it is to just play golf? On the other hand, the more they talk, the more it gets in your head? It will be interesting to see how Scheffler and McIlroy play this week, as it seems like the entire world believes one of them will wind up with the green jacket. 

Before we get to the picks, one thing to note is the weather, and it's not a positive outlook. If we see a bunch of delays, it's going to bring some new people into the mix. Professional golfers are best when they are in rhythm and nothing throws that off like gaps in the action.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Scottie Scheffler shot a final-round 71 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Rory McIlroy.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (7-1)

A year ago at this time Scheffler was in the midst of a heater, but we still weren't sure if he could pull off a win at Augusta. He obviously showed that he could and there aren't nearly as many doubters this time around. Still, can he pull off a repeat? It's not an easy task, but Scheffler is up to it. Is there enough value in these odds, though? That's where I start to question this pick. I think Scheffler ends up winning, so I guess the answer is a yes, but you know how much I hate taking anyone lower than 10-1.

Rory McIlroy (7-1)

I'll start by stating that this is the guy I want to win. With that said, if Scheffler's value at 7-1 is questionable, you know where I'm going to land with McIlroy at the same number. McIlroy has a lot going for him -- his form is solid and his track record here is good -- but he's failed to win this event and maybe there's a reason for that. He's had chances, but every time something gets in the way. Perhaps there's a mental block when he gets too close, but no one is really sure. Whatever the case, I think McIlroy will need to either come from well back Sunday or enter the final round with a big lead to pull it off.

Jon Rahm (19-2)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Just over a month ago Rahm was the favorite, but now he's a distant third. Rahm can be dangerous when overlooked, though, and perhaps he has something in store, as no one seems to be talking about him. Rahm hasn't played well in over a month, so it makes sense that he's not a popular pick, but he does have four top-10s in six starts here and his talent is unquestioned. This might be a good time to make a play on Rahm.

THE NEXT TIER

Tony Finau (24-1)

The jump in odds from the first handful of guys to the next group is wild, as there are only five guys under 20-1. This reflects the public's opinion that either Scheffler or McIlroy will wind up in the winner's circle. Two years ago, it would have been ridiculous to place a win wager on Finau at a major. If he couldn't win at a standard stop, how was he going to win a major? Fast forward two years and it's a different story. Even though Finau had a long stretch where he couldn't buy a win, he managed to play well in several majors. Now armed with the confidence of multiple PGA Tour wins, perhaps he can finally pull off his first major win. Finau has three top-10s here in five starts, so it's clear he can get around the course.

Cameron Smith (28-1)

There is a lot of value in Smith's price, as some would say he belongs right next to the top trio. However, we don't see him play on the PGA Tour every week, so it's hard to gauge where he's at. Smith is not fond of all the anti-LIV talk and I'm sure he has something to prove. The problem is, even if he wins, it doesn't prove anything about LIV. Everyone knows how good Smith is, and it's the other players that are questionable. All in all, Smith deserves a long look.

Jason Day (28-1)

A year ago, it would have been unthinkable to include Day among the small group of guys with a legitimate chance to win at Augusta, but here we are. When Day was at his best, he fared very well in this event. From 2011 through 2019, Day carded three top-5s and seven top-25s in nine starts. He missed the cut in his two most recent tries, but that was more of a reflection on the state of his game at the time. Now that he's found his old form, he should again be a factor.

LONG SHOTS

Corey Conners (50-1)

I know, the guy who won the week before a major almost never wins his next start, but that's why Conners is priced here. Conners not only enters in form, but his track record at Augusta is pretty solid as well. Conners finished top-10 here in his past three starts, and I dare say he's never entered Masters week with his game in this good of shape.

Kurt Kitayama (140-1)

I went with Kitayama in the SI Bettors Roundtable this week, so I have to include him here as well, right? Here's the thing with Kitayama, he's a total wild card here because he's a first timer. He might fall flat on his face and struggle with everything that is Augusta, or he might show the form that helped him win at Bay Hill and post a top-5 at the Match Play event. The ceiling is awfully high for a guy at this price.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - It's a tough call figuring out who will be more popular between McIlroy and Scheffler, but my guess is that Scheffler has already been used by more players, so more will be on McIlroy this week. You can't go wrong either way, as I expect both to be there at the end.

Moderately-owned Pick: Cameron Smith - I'm expecting Smith to be plenty popular because you only get four shots at him this year. It's a pretty sound contrarian play, as most will be on McIlroy or Scheffler and there might be some players that aren't quite sure what to think of Smith after playing LIV events for most of the past 12 months.

Lightly-owned Pick: Tony Finau - The favorites are going to be selected by a lot of players, so going with anyone outside the top two will provide an opportunity to gain ground. Even a guy like Finau, who is in good enough form and has a sound track record here, is going to get overlooked.

Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - After winning last week's LIV event Koepka has gained some steam, but I would remind his backers that even at the peak of his powers he never managed to win this event. He came close once, but that's over seven starts. Winning a LIV event might mean that your game is in good shape, but is it in major shape? I doubt it.

This Week: Scottie Scheffler - As mentioned above, I feel Scheffler is going to win, so I have to take him in this spot. My only hesitation is the weather. Scheffler may not wind on the wrong side of the draw or anything, but I don't like the fact that he might not be able to get into his usual groove. Still, I'd be kicking myself if he won and I didn't take him, so I'm sticking with this pick.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Scottie Scheffler ($12,100)
Middle Range: Jason Day ($10,700)
Lower Range: Talor Gooch ($7,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Scottie Scheffler - No matter what the weather brings I can't imagine a scenario in which Scheffler fails to play the weekend. Oddly enough, I can picture McIlroy or Rahm missing the cut. There's no reason to hold back in this format. This is a major and you need to bring your best, so Scheffler it is.

Previous Results