This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Des Moines DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Des Moines DFS picks are set for Saturday, May 3, with breakdowns of the top fights on DraftKings and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (24-4-1)
DK Salaries: Sandhagen ($9,400), Figueiredo ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Sandhagen (-500), Figueiredo (+380)
Sandhagen remains one of the most under appreciated bantamweights in the world despite the fact he is sporting a 3-3 record in his past six bouts dating back to July 2021. He's had real difficulty winning the "big" fight over the course of his UFC run, as evidenced by his lopsided main event unanimous decision defeat to Umar Nurmagomedov in Abu Dhabi last August. I like Cory and have a ton of respect for his game, but at age 32, it seems pretty clear he's not quite on the same level as the best bantamweights on the roster.
A former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion, Figueiredo moved up to bantamweight in December 2023 and has looked good thus far. He's been extremely active since the move, fighting four times in a span of less than a year. His 135-pound wins are over Rob Font (unanimous decision), Cody Garbrandt (submission) and Marlon Vera (unanimous decision), while the loss was via unanimous decision to Petr Yan in his most recent bout last November. I typically don't like switching weight classes so late in your career -- Figgy turned 37 years old in December -- but it's possible the drop to 125 pounds was simply too much to take moving forward.
Sandhagen is a tough guy to break down because his style changes depending on who he's fighting. He's a good striker and has shown the ability to pile up the volume on the feet, landing north of 100 significant strikes on three separate occasions.
And while I wouldn't call him a natural grappler -- Sandhagen is averaging just 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes -- he has shown he will lean on his wrestling if it's the clearest path to victory. He posted seven takedowns in a win over Font and three in a win over Vera. My guess is that isn't the route he chooses to take here, but it's nice to know it's in his back pocket in an event of an emergency.
For the most part, Figueiredo's power has carried over to the higher weight class. He's not knocking out guys at the same rate his did at flyweight, but he's still landing damaging blows. He's also become very grappling reliant, landing at least one takedown in eight straight fights and multiple takedowns in five of the eight.
Figgy's biggest problem here will be negating Sandhagen's six-inch edge in height and two-inch edge in reach. Cory has a background in kickboxing, and he's going to be able to stand at distance and pick Figueiredo apart if the latter isn't willing to crash the pocket and make this a dog fight.
The line on Sandhagen has continued to grow to the point that I think he's a tough play. I think he wins, but I was hoping for a salary closer to $9K. You're not going to be allowed much wiggle room if you use him in your lineup, but this is a five-round fight, and Figgy is durable, so I could most definitely see a scenario in which Cory is on the offense the vast majority of the 25 minutes and puts up a big DraftKings score.
THE PICK: Sandhagen
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Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Reinier de Ridder (19-2-0) v. Bo Nickal (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: de Ridder ($7,100), Nickal ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: de Ridder (+260), Nickal (-325)
Those clamoring for a Nickal step up in competition are going to get their wish here. The former three-time NCAA national champion in wrestling, Bo enters with seven career fights under his belt, including four with the UFC and two on Dana White's Contender Series. His four official victories with the company are over Paul Craig, Cody Brundage, Val Woodburn, and Jamie Pickett. De Ridder is light years better than every single one of those guys.
A former Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion in ONE, de Ridder joined the UFC in November and earned a third-round submission win over Gerald Meerschaert in a fight in which he didn't look very good. Gerald, a one-dimensional grappler, landed some massive blows on the feet before gassing out late. RDR got right back to work, taking on Kevin Holland in January and earning a first-round submission win. De Ridder completely overwhelmed Holland with his grappling game in one of the more dominant performances you will see. He will not be able to do that against Nickal.
Bo's most recent win over Craig was very strange. He clearly wanted to make a point and didn't shoot a single takedown. Yes, he beat Craig in the stand-up, but it wasn't by much, and he wasn't impressive in the process. Paul is a poor striker and the fact Nickal wasn't able to really pull away on the feet is a major concern.
RDR only has four career wins via knockout, and as I said, he struggled on the feet against Meerschaert, but he's far more experienced than Bo, and I expect him to have an edge in the striking.
Nickal is only to go as far as his wrestling game takes him, and I'm certain over the long term that he realizes that. Thus I expect another grappling-oriented attack against RDR.
The more I think about it, the more I think this fight is a pass altogether. The range of outcomes is massive.
You obviously aren't getting a good price on Nickal. Maybe RDR can find a way to pull out a submission, but that's difficult to predict. I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess as to what would happen in a prolonged kickboxing match.
I'm reluctantly going to pick Bo and hope a wrestler with his pedigree can score a takedown in a key spot if he needs it, but I don't feel comfortable about it.
THE PICK: Nickal
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio (31-8-0) v. Daniel Rodriguez (18-5-0)
DK Salaries: Ponzinibbio ($8,200), Rodriguez ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Ponzinibbio (-120), Rodriguez (+100)
Ponzinibbio lost four of five from December 2021 to July 2024 (including three via split decision and a knockout), and his time with the UFC appeared to be just about done. They gave him another chance in January and to his credit, Ponzinibbio responded with a third-round knockout win over Carlston Harris. It was an even fight the entire way, but Santiago managed to pull through. That said, he'll be 39 years of age in late-September, and his margin for error is still zero.
Rodriguez is in nearly an identical situation. He'll be 39 years old on New Year's Eve and had lost three straight from November 2022 to June 2024. Again, the UFC gave the fighter another chance, and D-Rod responded with a split decision win over Alex Morono last October. The company has done Rodriguez no favors regarding who it has matched him up against. This is a winnable fight, and Daniel needs to take full advantage.
These two guys mirror each other in so many ways, from their age to their skill sets inside the Octagon.
Rodriguez is a one-dimensional boxer. He has quick hands and is good at putting together combinations on the feet, but he throws zero kicks and typically absorbs too much damage. He's been durable to date, getting knocked out just once in 23 pro fights, but this is the type of skill set that almost always ages poorly. Rodriguez will be essentially finished the second his durability becomes an issue.
Ponzinibbio has more pure power than Rodriguez. He is also the better grappler if it gets to that point, although I don't think it will. He also has far worse durability and seems to be getting hit more than ever.
So, to recap, you have two guys that have nearly identical skill sets and are almost the same exact size (Rodriguez has an inch edge in both height and reach).
Between his age and his limited skill set, I don't like backing Rodriguez, but I think this is a good matchup for him. Ponz gets hit too much, and D-Rod has displayed the ability to put up plenty of volume. He could be in massive trouble if his durability is gone, but the same thing is true of Santiago. As a very slight underdog play, I think Rodriguez can outwork him.
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Women's Bantamweight
Yana Santos (15-8-0, 1NC) v. Miesha Tate (20-9-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($7,900), Tate ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Santos (+120), Tate (-140)
Santos probably should have been cut following a three-fight losing streak from July 2021 to July 2023, but -- stop if you've heard this one before -- the UFC gave the fighter another chance, and she responded with a unanimous decision win over a heavy Chelsea Chandler last August. My guess is that Santos, who will be 36 years old in November, will be in real trouble once again if she loses here, but credit to her and her team for parlaying one victory into a fight against a former UFC champion.
Tate hasn't fought since December 2023, and best I can tell, didn't have a single fight scheduled at any point during her time away. She submitted Julia Avila that evening -- her first win since July 2021. Tate remains a big name, but she has zero chance of making any sort of run when you combine her age -- 39 in August -- with her inactivity of late.
Santos has no power, with her last knockout win coming in September 2016. She also has no grappling game. She wins fights by staying active on the feet and outworking her opposition. To Yana's credit, she seems to know where her bread is buttered. She's landed at least 94 significant strikes each of her past two fights. If that type of output drops even a bit, she's done.
Tate, on the other hand, is typically low volume, but she has displayed an ability to up her output if the situation calls for it, as I assume it will here. Santos isn't going to be landing any damaging blows on the feet so it's up to Miesha to remain equally active. This event isn't at the UFC Apex, and they won't be using the smaller Octagon, so it's not as if Santos should be able to walk Tate down without resistance.
The easiest and move obvious way for Tate to win this fight is to lean on her wrestling. She's nowhere near as athletic as she was in her heyday, but Miesha landed 4-of-5 attempts against Avila for 10:55 worth of control time. Santos has always had awful takedown defense, stuffing just 42 percent of the attempts coming her way. She even allowed four takedowns to a pure kickboxer in Holly Holm. She offers nothing off of her back, and her get-up game is poor. Tate should easily be able to grind her way to a decision if she goes that route, and why wouldn't she?
I think the UFC is trying to get Tate back on track. If she can't win here, there's next to no hope moving forward.
THE PICK: Tate
Other UFC Des Moines Fights
Bantamweight
Montel Jackson (14-2-0) v. Daniel Marcos (17-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Jackson ($8,700), Marcos ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Jackson (-205), Marcos (+170)
THE PICK: Jackson
Bantamweight
Cameron Smotherman (12-4-0) v. Serhiy Sidey (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Smotherman ($7,800), Sidey ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Smotherman (+115), Sidey (-135)
THE PICK: Smotherman
Lightweight
Jeremy Stephens (28-19-0, 1NC) v. Mason Jones (15-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Stephens ($6,700), Jones ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Stephens (+425), Jones (-575)
THE PICK: Jones
Middleweight
Ryan Loder (8-1-0) v. Azamat Bekoev (19-3-0)
DK Salaries: Loder ($6,900), Bekoev ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Loder (+310), Bekoev (-395)
THE PICK: Bekoev
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez (17-5-2) v. Gillian Robertson (15-8-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($7,000), Robertson ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (+260), Robertson (-325)
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Bantamweight
Gaston Bolanos (8-4-0) v. Quang Le (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Bolanos ($8,500), Le ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Bolanos (-140), Le (+120)
THE PICK: Le
Heavyweight
Thomas Petersen (9-3-0) v. Don'Tale Mayes (11-8-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Petersen ($8,900), Mayes ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Petersen (-265), Mayes (+215)
THE PICK: Petersen
Women's Flyweight
Juliana Miller (4-3-0) v. Ivana Petrovic (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Miller ($7,400), Petrovic ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Miller (+190), Petrovic (-230)
THE PICK: Petrovic
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for [EVENT NAME] with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
