This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 280 takes place Saturday morning in Abu Dhabi, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 280 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Vacant UFC Lightweight Championship
Charles Oliveira (33-8-0, 1NC) v. Islam Makhachev (22-1-0)
DK Salaries: Oliveira ($7,800), Makhachev ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (+155), Makhachev (-180)
Odds to Finish: -450
This is the biggest and best fight the UFC can make in a division loaded with stars. It should be a wild ride.
Oliveira has won 11 fights in a row dating back to June 2018. He won the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship by knocking out Michael Chandler in May 2021. He defended the title with a submission win last December over Dustin Poirier, then relinquished the belt after missing weight by half a pound for his bout against Justin Gaethje this past May. There were rumblings of an issue with the scales causing the weight miss. The two still fought, and Charles submitted Gaethje just over three minutes in, although he was ineligible to walk out with the gold because he came in heavy. Oliveira may not be the "official" title holder heading into this fight, but even UFC President Dana White has stated that Charles is likely to get pay-per-view points for this appearance, so he's still in good standing with the company.
He better be ready to go, because this is unquestionably his greatest challenge to date. Makhachev is a machine, having lost once in 23 professional fights. That came in his second UFC bout against Adriano Martins in October 2015, and it was the result of a fluke, one-punch knockout. No one has caused Islam to break a sweat since, let alone come close to defeating him. Makhachev's last four wins -- Bobby Green, Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises, and Drew Dober -- have all come via stoppage.
This is a significant clash in styles. Islam's entire game plan is built around his wrestling. He averages 3.41 takedowns per 15 minutes and is excellent at keeping his opponent pinned to the mat once he gets there. Quite honestly, he looks a lot like his trainer, former UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, when in a dominant position.
Oliveira defends the takedown at a 57 percent clip, which is quite lousy. The flip side to that is that Charles has the most submission victories in UFC history with 16 and is more than content working off of his back. He obviously can't spend the entire fight there, but Makhachev better be careful to not leave a limb exposed when in top position.
As great as Oliveira has been of late, he's been in real trouble in recent fights, having been knocked down early on in each of his past three bouts. Charles somehow managed to survive and win each fight, but that type of luck only holds for so long. Neither of these men are at their best on the feet, although Oliveira in particular has improved his striking immensely in recent years.
I've gone back and forth here more times than I can count. I want to pick Islam, but there's something about Charles that won't let me do so. Some of it is the unquestioned value he provides as an underdog. The other thing I can't get past is the gap in competition the two have faced. Defeating Green, Hooker, Moises and Dober is not the same thing as beating the likes of Gaethje, Poirier and Chandler.
Perhaps Islam is as good as many people, myself included, think he is and this turns into a rout, but Oliveira deserves the benefit of the doubt if you view it as a pick 'em.
UFC 280 PICK: Oliveira
Co-Main Event - UFC Bantamweight Championship
(C) Aljamain Sterling (21-3-0) v. TJ Dillashaw (18-4-0)
DK Salaries: Sterling ($8,500), Dillashaw ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Sterling (-175), Dillashaw (+150)
Odds to Finish: +140
Sterling's story has become well known the past couple years. He fought Petr Yan for the UFC Bantamweight Championship in March 2021 and was dominated, well on his way to dropping a unanimous decision, before Yan blasted him in the head with an illegal knee with 31 seconds left, handing Sterling the belt via disqualification. The two linked up again this past April for the title, with few giving Aljo a chance of winning, but Sterling walked out with a split-decision victory in a back-and-forth affair. For what it's worth, I thought he deserved the fight.
A former two-time UFC Bantamweight Champion himself, Dillashaw returned in July 2021 following a two-year USADA suspension for PEDs. He was awarded a split decision victory in that fight against a very good opponent in Cory Sandhagen, although the opinion of most was that T.J. was lucky to get the call. In that bout, Dillashaw suffered a knee injury, so he is looking at nearly 15 months on the sidelines heading into this one, in addition to having competed just once dating back to January 2019.
On paper, this looks like a pretty good matchup for the champion. For starters, Sterling is the bigger man. He enters with an inch edge in height and a four-inch edge in reach. He is also nearly three years younger than Dillashaw. Sterling hasn't been a picture of perfect health over the course of his career, but he's been far more active than T.J. in recent years. Octagon rust is a real thing, and while Dillashaw looked perfectly capable against Sandhagen, this is a bigger ask.
I'm curious to see T.J's game plan here. He fired off a whopping 19 takedowns against Sandhagen, landing just two of them. Sterling is an accomplished wrestler and better athlete than Dillashaw, although Aljo's takedown defense is a dreadful 41 percent. That number is misleading because Yan got him to the mat seven times in their first fight. Take that away and his number would be fine.
Of the final four fights on the main card, this is the lone one priced properly in my opinion.
Dillashaw will have to either put forth an unexpected wrestling performance, or wear Sterling down with volume over the course of a prolonged fight. Neither are impossible, but I'd bet against both. I like the champion to retain.
UFC 280 PICK: Sterling
Bantamweight
Petr Yan (16-3-0) v. Sean O'Malley (15-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Yan ($9,300), O'Malley ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Yan (-275), O'Malley (+230)
Odds to Finish: +125
I spoke of Yan earlier. The Russian is 8-2 in his first ten UFC bouts, with both losses coming to Sterling. The DQ doesn't really count and the second one was the split decision, so he's never actually performed poorly in a fight with the company. I imagine if you polled many head coaches in the sport, the majority would still say Yan is the best bantamweight on the planet. There are zero holes in his game, and his cardio is remarkable. Toss in the fact Yan is incredibly durable, and there's long-term staying power here, regardless of if he has the belt or not.
Those wanting to see O'Malley compete against better competition are going to get their wish and then some in this one. "Sugar" is 6-1 (1NC) in eight UFC bouts. The loss came to Marlon Vera in a fight O'Malley was winning before suffering a foot injury, while the no-contest was against Pedro Munhoz in his most recent bout last July when an accidental eye poke left Pedro unable to continue. O'Malley is one of the most gifted and creative strikers we have seen in this sport in recent memory. He's tall and throws a ton of kicks. Essentially, he is the exact opposite of Yan.
Sean is going to enter with a four-inch edge in height and a five-inch edge in reach. There's no question he's the better, more decorated striker, but both the Vegas odds and DK salaries given you an idea of the assumed edge Yan has in most every other area.
When you have a striker as gifted as O'Malley, the general assumption is that they can't wrestle in the least. The truth is typically somewhere in the middle. Sean's 64 percent takedown defense isn't great, but he's been taken down just once in his past seven fights. Now, Yan is eons better than any of the other guys O'Malley has faced, but Sean is athletic and nimble on his feet, so I'd be surprised if Yan is able to plant him on his back repeatedly without resistance.
Regardless of who you like to win, O'Malley is undervalued in this spot. Part of it is undoubtedly because it's assumed Yan has a chance to overwhelm in the grappling exchanges between the two men. That might indeed be the case, but the size edge for O'Malley is real, and he's going to have a real shot for as long as he remains upright.
I think he is more competitive here than people think, even if I don't like him outright.
UFC 280 PICK: Yan
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush (21-4-1) v. Mateusz Gamrot (21-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Dariush ($7,400), Gamrot ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Dariush (+165), Gamrot (-195)
Odds to Finish: +125
This fight is being overlooked because of how loaded this card is, but boy is it a good one.
Dariush has won seven fights in a row dating back to November 2018. Included in that stretch are three Performance of the Night bonuses and a Fight of the Night Bonus. Dariush was due to fight Makhachev this past February before an ankle injury forced him to withdraw. It's nice to see him get a fight on the main card of a pay-per-view here because he deserves it. Dariush has been one of the sport's most underrated fighters for years.
Gamrot is no easy mark, however. The 31-year-old has run off four straight wins, including three via stoppage, since a split decision loss to fellow underrated stud Guram Kutateladze in his UFC debut in October 2020. Gamrot's most recent fight was his first main event with the company, a unanimous decision win (48-47 x3) over Arman Tsarukyan this past June.
One of Dariush's problems earlier in his career was that he tended to start slow, and that has cost him in the past. That won't be an option in this fight considering the constant pressure Gamrot puts on his opposition. Beneil prefers to stand back and wait for his opponent to make a mistake, while Mateusz comes right after you.
Ultimately, I think the winner here will be the man that is successfully able to implement his grappling game. Dariush averages 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Gamrot is all the way up at a whopping 4.83 per 15. Both defend the takedown exceptionally well, with Dariush at a 81-percent clip and Gamrot at 90 percent. In a bout scheduled for just three rounds, one well-timed try could be the difference between winning and losing.
The DraftKings salaries and Vegas odds here surprised me. Yes, Gamrot is on a roll and I like him to win. I think he can really put the pressure on Dariush and get him out of rhythm. That said, Dariush has put forth a sustained body of excellent work and doesn't deserve to be as large of an underdog as he's listed at. I certainly don't mind him as a "punt" DK play if you're trying to fill out your lineup.
UFC 280 PICK: Gamrot
Woman's Flyweight
Katlyn Chookagian (18-4-0) v. Manon Fiorot (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Chookagian ($7,300), Fiorot ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Chookagian (+185), Fiorot (-215)
Odds to Finish: +245
This fight had to be pushed back nearly two months, but the UFC finally got it done here.
Virtually every Chookagian fight is exactly the same. She's aggressive on the feet, throws a ton of volume at her opponent, offers nothing in the grappling game and typically emerges victorious. In fact, Katlyn has now won four in a row and five her her past six. Her issue is the fact she has always struggled against better competition due to the fact her offensive arsenal is far too one-dimensional. She also has no stopping power in her hands.
Fiorot began her UFC run with knockout wins over Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci before taking a pair of unanimous decisions over Mayra Bueno Silva and Jennifer Maia. She has the power and all-around skill set to theoretically give Chookagian trouble.
One of Katlyn's biggest advantage's has been that she is the bigger woman most every time she steps into the Octagon. This fight will be no exception. She's two inches taller than Fiorot and will enter with a three-inch reach edge. Credit where it's due, Chookagian does a nice job of using her length to her advantage.
That said, Fiorot has more power, is a better athlete and is more likely to grapple, averaging 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes. Katlyn has been struggled with wrestling in the past, defending the takedown at a poor 54-percent clip.
In the interest of complete honesty, I should mention I've picked against Chookagian more times than I can count and have almost always gotten burned. I'm going back to the well. I'm worried about her size advantage and the fact she's faced much better competition than Fiorot, but I think Manon has the power to really disrupt Chookagian offensively if she can get inside on a consistent basis.
Easier said than done.
UFC 280 PICK: Fiorot
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Belal Muhammad (21-3-0, 1NC) v. Sean Brady (15-0-0)
DK Salaries: Muhammad ($8,000), Brady ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Muhammad (+125), Brady (-145)
Odds to Finish: +190
UFC 280 PICK: Muhammad
Middleweight
Makhmud Muradov (25-7-0) v. Caio Borralho (12-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Muradov ($7,200), Borralho ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Muradov (+170), Borralho (-200)
Odds to Finish: -125
UFC 280 PICK: Borralho
Light Heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir (18-6-0) v. Nikita Krylov (28-9-0)
DK Salaries: Oezdemir ($7,600), Krylov ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Oezdemir (+140), Krylov (-170)
Odds to Finish: -190
UFC 280 PICK: Krylov
Featherweight
Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1) v. Lucas Almeida (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Tukhugov ($8,300), Almeida ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Tukhugov (-155), Almeida (+135)
Odds to Finish: +120
UFC 280 PICK: Almeida
Welterweight
Abubakar Nurmagomedov (16-3-1) v. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (13-1-0)
DK Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($8,700), Omargadzhiev ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-175), Omargadshiev (+135)
Odds to Finish: +150
UFC 280 PICK: Nurmagomedov
Middleweight
Armen Petrosyan (7-2-0) v. A.J. Dobson (6-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Petrosyan ($9,100), Dobson ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Petrosyan (-205), Dobson (+175)
Odds to Finish: -275
UFC 280 PICK: Petrosyan
Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev (8-0-0, 1NC) v. Malcolm Gordon (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Mokaev ($9,600), Gordon ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Mokaev (-730), Gordon (+530)
Odds to Finish: -225
UFC 280 PICK: Mokaev
Women's Bantamweight
Karol Rosa (15-4-0) v. Lina Lansberg (10-6-0)
DK Salaries: Rosa ($9,200), Lansberg ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Rosa (-260), Lansberg (+220)
Odds to Finish: +190
UFC 280 PICK: Rosa
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 280 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
