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UFC Baku DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Baku: Hill vs. Rountree. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Jamahal Hill (12-3-0, 1NC) v. Khalil Rountree (14-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Hill ($7,800), Rountree ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Hill (+110), Rountree (-130)
This fight has been a long time coming. These two were originally scheduled to meet a year ago and then again this past April. They'll finally hook up here.
Hill is in a terrible spot. He's now 34 years old and is without a win since defeating Glover Teixeira for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship back in January 2023. He was forced to vacate the title after rupturing his Achilles and has suffered back-to-back knockout losses to Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka since. I've never been all that high on Hill to begin with, but you can't help but feel for the guy. The injury appears to have really set him back over the long-term.
Rountree turned 35 years of age in February, so he doesn't have much margin for error moving forward, either. He parlayed a five-fight winning streak from September 2021 to December 2023 into a title fight with Pereira in October and was beaten from pillar to post before finally getting finished late in Round 4. Rountree showed a ton of heart that evening, but it was abundantly clear he wasn't on the same level as the best in the division. Maybe it shouldn't come as a surprise given the fact he best wins during that previously mentioned streak were over Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby.
I'm tossing Hill's loss to Pereira aside. He took that fight at UFC 300 because the company didn't have a main event, and he clearly wasn't 100 percent healthy. He looked better against Prochazka, but still got hit too much, and I have concerns about his durability. Jamahal carries his head straight up, which makes for an easy target.
I think Rountree has the edge in terms of pure power, but he's going to need to find a way to negate a three-inch disadvantage in terms of both height and reach. That said, Hill doesn't fight like a tall guy. He doesn't use his length all that well and has a tendency to get sucked into brawls, at which point his lack of durability becomes an issue.
Rountree has been knocked out three times himself, and that's not typically something that improves with age, but I was very impressed with the toughness he showed in the Pereira fight.
I'm kind of torn here.
Although I'm lower on Hill than most, he's still lightyears better than Smith, Jacoby and the level of competition Rountree has been beating up of late.
Ultimately, there isn't enough value on the Hill side to sway my opinion. I've had plenty of success fading him of late, and I think Rountree, while far from a perfect fighter, can do enough to frustrate Jamahal.
THE PICK: Rountree
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Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Rafael Fiziev (12-4-0) v. Ignacio Bahamondes (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Fiziev ($8,000), Bahamondes ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Fiziev (+100), Bahamondes (-120)
Fiziev won six fights in a row from October 2019 to July 2022 before falling on hard times of late. He's lost three in a row -- a pair of decisions to Justin Gaethje and a TKO setback to Mateusz Gamrot which was brought about by a knee injury. Both the Gaethje losses were competitive, with both men earning a $50,000 Fight of the Night bonus for each. This is a must-win for Fiziev given his recent losing streak, combined with the fact he will have the crowd firmly on his side.
Bahamondes continues to climb the rankings at 155 pounds and is deserving of this opportunity. He's won three straight, all via first-round stoppage, with each performance earning him a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus. Dating back to August 2021, Ignacio is 6-1 in his past seven bouts. He's improving each and every time we see him, and given the fact Bahamondes won't be 28 years of age until late-August, it's reasonable to expect even further growth moving forward.
A former professional kickboxer, Fiziev has earned a reputation as a one-dimensional striker. He throws a ton of kicks and has lighting-quick reflexes. He's extremely creative and fluid on the feet.
I was impressed with the fact Fiziev landed both of his takedown attempts on Gaethje his last time out, but those two successful tries came with just 40 seconds worth of control time attached, so the impact was minimal. Still, one well-placed shot could potentially make a difference in a fight scheduled for just three rounds.
I say it every time I break down a Bahamondes fight, but the first thing you're drawn to whenever you watch him is the size. At 6-foot-3, he's about as big of a lightweight as you will ever seen.
He has no offensive grappling to speak of, but his career takedown defense is 85 percent. That's basically all Bahamondes needs given how advanced he is on the feet.
Having the crowd behind him won't help Fiziev negate Ignacio's seven-inch edge in height and four-inch edge in reach.
You would think a close decision is going to go Rafael's way given the support he'll have in the arena, but I think there's a real chance Bahamondes is the better fighter given the point each is at in the respective careers. It's essentially a pick 'em and is priced as such. I'd be shocked if it wasn't a close, back-and-forth kickboxing match.
THE PICK: Bahamondes
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes (18-5-0, 1NC) v. Rizvan Kuniev (12-2-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Blaydes ($9,100), Kuniev ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Blaydes (-270), Kuniev (+220)
This fight has been a long time coming. They were originally scheduled to fight in February, then in March. In the second instance, Blaydes drew ill just before the bout.
Blaydes has been trending in the wrong direction the last couple years. He is 1-2 in his past three bouts, with the two setbacks being knockout to Tom Aspinall in an interim title fight and a knockout to Sergei Pavlovich. Even in the win, a knockout over Jailton Almeida, Blaydes was dominated the entirety of Round 1 before earning the stoppage early in Round 2. I don't want to press the panic button because he's been fighting some of the very best the division has to offer, but there's no doubt this is a massive fight for Curtis if he plans to stay on the fringes of title contention.
We have very little background on Kuniev. He bounced between countless promotions on the European regional scene early in his career before arriving on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2021. He won that fight via third-round knockout but wasn't awarded a contract. Kuniev then got another fight on DWCS last August and earned a first-round knockout as a -575 favorite. This time, he was signed to the company. Kuniev has already had three fights cancelled (Blaydes twice, Martin Buday) and has yet to make his official company debut.
Blaydes is probably the best wrestler in the heavyweight division, even at age 34. He's certainly one of the best athletes. He's fast, explosive and heavy from top position. He's averaging 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a ridiculous 53 percent of his shots. I've never really rated his striking, and Curtis is going to be in trouble when his grappling eventually drops off, but he should be good for at least another year or two.
Our brief exposure to Kuniev appears to reveal a guy with a well-rounded skill set. In his first DWCS fight, he landed 78 significant strikes and three takedowns. The volume was down in the second fight, but that one ended via first-round knockout. Kuniev looks like a capable generalist who can hang most everywhere but doesn't have an elite skill to fall back upon when trouble arrives.
And trouble may very likely arrive here because Blaydes is a ridiculously tough test for a debut fight.
Maybe Kuniev is better than we all think and he surprises us, but my guess is Curtis is able to overwhelm him with grappling and pace. That's not a knock on Rizvan, this is just a big ask for anyone in their first bout with the company.
THE PICK: Blaydes
Lightweight
Nazim Sadykhov (10-1-1) v. Nikolas Motta (15-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Sadykhov ($9,400), Motta ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Sadykhov (-470),Motta (+360)
Born in Baku and currently fighting out of Brooklyn, Sadykhov figures to have as much crowd support behind him as any fighter on this card. He's been great thus far with the UFC, going 3-0-1 in four bouts, with all three victories coming via stoppage (two knockouts, one submission). Even the draw against Slava Borshchev earned Sadykhov a $50,000 Fight of the Night bonus. I don't think he's a future title challenger or anything like that, but I could easily see Nazim making a run at the top-15, even in a loaded lightweight division.
Motta has been with the UFC a few years now, and the results have been inconsistent. He's 3-2-1 in six fights with the company, although he has won his last two as a fairly significant underdog in both instances. Motta's two greatest attributes are his grit and power. I am far from sold on the rest of the package, however.
Because he has supreme confidence in his hands, Motta is prone to be dragged into brawls. It make sense on the surface because that type of fight probably gives him his best chance to win, but Motta's striking defense is a problem. He absorbs 4.5 significant strikes per minute while landing just 3.64.
Sadykhov is actually worse in that area, landing 4.7 per minute and absorbing 5.66. The difference is that Nazim has no durability issues, having never been knocked out in his professional career. Motta, on the other hand, has been knocked out four times including three times in Round 1. His durability, or lack thereof, is a major, major issue.
Nazim can wrestle in a pinch, but that's not really his game. Of course, he should have a significant grappling edge over Motta, who has yet to land a takedown in his UFC career. If Sadykhov wants to limit risk and attempt the cleanest path to victory, dragging his opponent to the mat repeatedly isn't the worst idea in the world.
Motta isn't a terrible DraftKings punt play because his win condition is probably knockout, but he's the second-largest underdog on the card for a reason. Sadykhov is better pretty much everywhere and should be fine as long as he doesn't make a foolish mistake.
THE PICK: Sadykhov
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Tofiq Musayev (22-5-0) v. Myktybek Orolbai (13-2-1)
DK SalarieS: Musayev ($7,700), Orolbai ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Musayev (+140), Orolbai (-165)
THE PICK Orolbai
Featherweight
Muhammadjon Naimov (12-3-0) v. Bogdan Grad (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Naimov ($8,800), Grad ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Naimov (-240), Grad (+200)
THE PICK: Grad
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Welterweight
Seok Hyun Ko (11-2-0) v. Oban Elliott (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Ko ($6,700), Elliott ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Ko (+370), Elliott (-485)
THE PICK: Elliott
Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev (24-7-0) v. Jun Yong Park (18-6-0)
DK Salaries: Naurdiev ($7,500), Park ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Naurdiev (+155), Park (-185)
THE PICK: Park
Women's Bantamweight
Darya Zheleznyakova (9-2-0) v. Melissa Mullins (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Zhelezniakova ($7,200), Mullins ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Zhelezniakova (+225), Mullins (-280)
THE PICK: Mullins
Women's Bantamweight
Irina Alekseeva (5-2-0) v. Klaudia Sygula (6-2-0)
DK Salaries: Alekseeva ($8,900), Sygula ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Alekseeva (-270), Sygula (+220)
THE PICK: Alekseeva
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov (16-2-0) v. Azat Maksum (15-1-0)
DK Salaries: Ulanbekov ($9,300), Maksum ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Ulanbekov (-380), Maksum (+300)
THE PICK: Ulanbekov
Heavyweight
Hamdy Abdelwahab (6-0-0, 1NC) v. Mohammed Usman (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Abdelwahab ($8,600), Usman ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Abdelwahab (-170), Usman (+140)
THE PICK: Usman
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
