UFC Paris DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Paris: Imavov vs. Barralho. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Nassourdine Imavov (16-4-0, 1NC) v. Caio Borralho (17-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Imavov ($7,800), Borralho ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Imavov (+105), Borralho (-125)
There's a real case to be made that the winner of this fight -- especially if the result if an impressive one -- is next in line for a title shot at 185 pounds.
Imavov hasn't lost a middleweight bout since February 2021, a span of eight fights. His lone loss during that stretch came against Sean Strickland at light heavyweight. Overall, Imavov has won four in a row, with knockouts of Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier, in addition to a pair of unanimous decisions over Brendan Allen and Roman Dolidze. In other words, Imavov has essentially been rolling through fringe top-five opposition for a while now.
Borralho is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC, in addition to a pair of victories on Dana White's Contender Series. The lone difference is that he can't come close to matching Imavov's resume in terms of quality wins. In fact, his lone notable victory was his last, a five-round unanimous decision win over Cannonnier. Other than that, Borralho has defeated named such as Paul Craig, Michal Oleksiejczuk and Armen Petrosyan. That's decent enough opposition, but certainly nowhere near the top of the middleweight food chain.
Both of these guys are remarkably well-rounded. Neither has a notable hole in their respective games, and both have plenty of ways to win a fight.
At 6-foot-3, Imavov is a big middleweight. He has seven career wins via knockout and spent the first three years of his pro career fighting at welterweight, which is crazy to even consider. He was born in Dagestan but has lived in Paris for well over a decade now and is going to have the crowd behind him.
Borralho is the type of guy that is so talented and so technical that his fights can be boring at times. He doesn't land a ton of the feet (3.61 significant strikes per minute) and rarely gets hit (2.34 significant strikes per minute).
The Brazilian is a black belt in both BJJ and Muay Thai and a brown belt in judo. He's the leader of the Fighting Nerds team that has been arguably the best in the sport the past year or so.
I expect a close and competitive fight from start to finish. I see it going the distance and would be surprised if either man is able to truly separate from the other.
I'm taking Borralho because I trust in he and his team's ability to game plan for their opposition, but I wouldn't blame anyone for going with Imavov in what is a home game from him.
UFC PARIS PICK: Borralho
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Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Benoit Saint-Denis (14-3-0, 1NC) v. Mauricio Ruffy (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Saint Denis ($7,400), Ruffy ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Saint Denis (+170), Ruffy (-205)
Speaking of the Fighting Nerds, Ruffy is another member of the team on a roll of late. Counting his appearance on Dana White's Contender Series, Ruffy is 4-0 with the promotion including three knockouts, with two coming in Round 1. 11 of his dozen career wins are via KO, and the UFC has reportedly had a ton of issues finding opponents willing to fight him.
Enter, Saint-Denis, who has seen it all fall apart over the past year and a half. BSD won five straight fights via stoppage (three knockouts, two submissions) from June 2022 to November 2023. Then he suffered back-to-back stoppage defeats to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano last year. Saint-Denis was due to face Joel Alvarez in May in a matchup in which I thought he was going to get crushed, but Alvarez withdrew and BSD was able to submit late-notice opponent Kyle Prepolec in Round 2. The UFC has decided to throw him right back in the deep end against Ruffy.
Saint-Denis is tough to get a read on because so much of his appeal is the fact he's tough as nails and will always fight for your dollar. If the damage absorbed in the Poirier and Moicano losses has had any lasting impact, he's in real trouble. To be fair, he won't be 30 years old until mid-December and this will only be his 19th professional fight, so there should be some gas left in the tank.
This just seems like another real bad matchup for BSD.
Ruffy's power is ridiculous. It's fight-altering and easily among the best in the division. Saint-Denis also tends to find himself in brawls. If he employs his usual aggressive style, Saint-Denis is going to absorb damage, and that simply isn't the path to victory against Ruffy.
BSD should try to employ a wrestling-heavy game plan, and the fact he's averaging 4.19 takedowns per 15 minutes indicates he has the skill set to do so. The issue is that Ruffy is an underrated athlete that has yet to give up a takedown in his UFC run. I can see Saint-Denis getting him to the mat, but I doubt he's going to rack up a boatload of control time, and that means he's going to eat some huge blows on the feet at some point.
I personally couldn't get there, but you're getting an awful nice price on Saint-Denis if you think the durability will hold up. Still, Ruffy is the pick for me.
UFC PARIS PICK: Ruffy
Lightweight
Bolaji Oki (10-2-0) v. Mason Jones (16-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Oki ($7,600), Jones ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Oki (+115), Jones (-135)
Oki parlayed a bunch of finishes on the European regional scene into a fight on Dana White's Contender Series back in August 2023. He knocked out Dylan Salvador that evening in a little over two minutes and earned a UFC contract in the process. He's had three official fights with the company since, picking up a pair of decision wins over Michael Aswell (unanimous) and Timothy Cuamba (split) sandwiched between a first-round submission loss to Chris Duncan. 5-foot-10 and athletic, Oki looks the part of a potential quality lightweight, but he's short on experience in general, especially at this level.
Jones' first UFC run ended in July 2022. He picked up shop and returned to the Cage Warriors promotion, earning four straight wins (including three via knockout) before rejoining the company in May. He took a hard-fought unanimous decision from Jeremy Stephens that evening in Des Moines, Iowa -- Stephens' home town -- as a massive favorite.
Jones has some pop in his hands, but he gets hit too much on the feet. He's willing to eat two strikes in order to land three of his own. On the plus side, he is durable, having never been finished in 19 professional fights.
The rare instances in which Jones has looked very good have been the fights in which he has been able to get his grappling game going. He landed eight takedowns against Stephens. He also landed eight against David Onama back in October 2021. Obviously, he's not going to succeed at that rate every fight, but I'd like to see him stick with his wrestling, even if it isn't successful early on.
Oki's win over Aswell took place on May 31, so this is a quick turnaround. He landed 136 significant strikes that evening, but he absorbed 118, so it's not as if it was a stress-free performance. I question Oki's ability to generate offense if his power shots aren't landing. Aswell's stand-up defense is poor, and the vast majority of opposition moving forward isn't going to allow Bolaji to get as comfortable on the fight as Mike did in their bout.
This feels like the right spot for an underdog play. Oki is barely a 'dog on the money line at +115, and he's $1,000 cheaper than Jones in terms of DraftKings salary.
A mauling of Stephens tells us nothing. There's a chance Jones was simply beating up inferior competition overseas. He's in for a tougher fight against Oki, win or lose.
UFC PARIS PICK: Oki
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Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas (18-6-0) v. Paul Craig (17-9-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Bukauskas ($9,300), Craig ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Bukauskas (-355), Craig (+280)
Set to turn 38 years old in late-November and in the midst of a stretch in which he's gone 1-5 (1NC) in his past seven bouts dating back to July 2022, it sure feels as if the UFC is doing Craig a huge favor by running him out there one final time. To Craig's credit, he's never been one to turn down a fight, and his five setbacks during that streak have come against Borralho, Bo Nickal, Brendan Allen, Johnny Walker and Volkan Oezdemir. This matchup against Bukauskas is the most reasonable competition he has faced since the pandemic. Sadly, it may be too little, too late.
Bukauskas is in the midst of his second run with the company, and this one has gone far better than the first. He's somehow won three straight and five of six since returning in February 2023. The main difference is that the UFC has matched him up much, much softer than Craig. Modestas' best win was over Ion Cutelaba his last time out, and that one came via split decision.
Craig has always been very limited offensively, which is shocking considering this is a guy with a victory over current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Magomed Ankalaev on his ledger. Craig's striking has simply never progressed. He's stiff and rigid on the feet and looks exceedingly uncomfortable in prolonged stand-up exchanges. To make matters worse, five of his nine career setbacks have come via knockout.
Bukauskas' durability isn't much better, as he has been knocked out four times in his career, but Craig lacks the power and technical ability to threaten any opponent on the feet, even one like Modestas that tends to absorb punishment first and ask questions later.
Craig is submission-or-bust, and I have a very difficult time projecting that to happen given his advanced age, and the fact it's clear as day that any opponent he faces moving forward is well aware he is going to have the get the fight to the mat in order to compete.
If there was ever a fight to avoid at all costs, this is it.
Bukauskas is unplayable at this number, and Craig is unplayable at any number. Bukauskas is the pick to win the fight by default, although I'd rather roll the dice on Craig at his astronomically-low salary if I was forced to choose sides.
UFC PARIS PICK: Bukauskas
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Axel Sola (10-0-1) v. Rhys McKee (14-6-1)
DK Salaries: Sola ($8,500), McKee ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Sola (-135), McKee (+115)
UFC PARIS PICK: McKee
Featherweight
Patricio Freire (37-8-0) v. Losene Keita (16-1-0)
DK Salaries: Freire ($7,300), Keita ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Freire (+170), Keita (-205)
UFC PARIS PICK: Keita
Featherweight
William Gomis (14-3-0) v. Robert Ruchala (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Gomis ($9,000), Ruchala ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Gomis (-250), Ruchala (+205)
UFC PARIS PICK: Gomis
Light Heavyweight
Oumar Sy (11-1-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (17-8-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Sy ($9,500), Ribeiro ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Sy (-425), Ribeiro (+330)
UFC PARIS PICK: Sy
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura (27-9-0) v. Ante Delija (25-6-0)
DK Salaries: Tybura ($8,000), Delija ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Tybura (-105), Delija (-115)
UFC PARIS PICK: Tybura
Welterweight
Sam Patterson (13-2-1) v. Trey Waters (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Patterson ($8,700), Waters ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Patterson (-165), Waters (+140)
UFC PARIS PICK: Waters
Middleweight
Brad Tavares (21-11-0) v. Robert Bryczek (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Tavares ($9,100), Bryczek ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Tavares (-230), Bryczek (+190)
UFC PARIS PICK: Tavares
Welterweight
Andreas Gustafsson (12-2-0) v. Rinat Fakhretdinov (23-1-1)
DK Salaries: Gustafsson ($8,300), Fakhretdinov ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Gustafsson (-120), Fakhretdinov (+100)
UFC PARIS PICK: Gustafsson
Women's Strawweight
Shauna Bannon (7-1-0) v. Sam Hughes (10-6-0)
DK Salaries: Bannon ($7,000), Hughes ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Bannon (+270), Hughes (-340)
UFC PARIS PICK: Hughes
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
