The UFC has pulled out all the stops in London, offering prospective bettors and DFS players a whopping 15 fights to sink their teeth into. We'll take a look at every bout across four platforms, including two selections that are sizable underdogs, and what appears to be a mix-up in the main event that DFS players should take advantage of. Our betting line this week comes from The RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Shauna Bannon ($7,600)
Bannon's aggressive nature and all-around game may just be enough to get the better of Bruna Brasil, who has been made to look visibly uncomfortable when forced to deal with opponents who take the center of the cage. The upright posture of Brasil and her desire to engage in clinch situations will give Bannon plenty of options, and I believe she wins as long as she doesn't choose to hang out in kickboxing range.
Yanal Ashmouz ($7,800)
Chris Duncan will likely be the more prolific grappler in this matchup, but Ashmouz will look for shots of his own as he uses his speed to dart in and out of the pocket. The slow-footed Duncan did well to pick up a win in his UFC debut against an aging Omar Morales, but he was noticeably wobbled several times in that contest, and we saw just how hard the Israeli fighter can hit in his knockout of Sam Patterson in his UFC debut.
Jamal Pogues ($8,900)
Competent heavyweight wrestlers are a dying breed these days, which is why it was nice to see Pogues notch five takedowns and nearly seven minutes of control time in his organizational debut against Josh Parisian. While Michael Parkin is clearly powerful, it needs to be said that the majority of his six victories have come at the expense of fighters with losing records in organizations that aren't exactly well known. Pogues will also come into this fight with a noticeable speed advantage, making it difficult to see how Parkin notches a victory outside of landing a big shot.
Paul Craig ($6,900)
I'll be the first to admit that I was high on Andre Muniz ahead of his bout with Brendan Allen, but the Brazilian fighter looked so listless on the ground that I'm forced to conclude he isn't a great grappler from bottom position. The problem here is Craig has always been incredibly comfortable off of his back, as he has submission victories from there against leading lights of the division in Magomed Ankalaev and Jamahal Hill. Muniz is a sloppy striker even if he is the more powerful of the two on the feet, and I can't trust that "Sergipano" will have a marked advantage on the ground. This makes it extremely difficult to pay up for him on such a stacked slate.
Nathaniel Wood ($9,200)
Wood's punishing leg kicks and pressure should wreak havoc on Andre Fili, who needs space to utilize his own fluid kicking game. While his takedown defense has improved over time, Fili still hit the mat seven times in his recent fight with Bryce Mitchell, and Wood has been steadily showcasing more of his wrestling as his UFC career has progressed. Filli's length may gave Wood problems initially, but it will take more than a jab to slow down a fighter like Wood, who has shown no signs of flagging despite taking part in extended wars in the Octagon.
Julija Stoliarenko ($6,800)
I certainly didn't plan on picking two fighters below the $7,000 threshold, but Stoliarenko will want to do nothing more than bring this fight to the ground, and Molly McCann has notched just a 44 percent takedown defense rate in 10 UFC fights. What's even more alarming is the Liverpool native has shown no ability to get up off of her back, having been completely dominated on the mat by the likes of Erin Blanchfield, Gillian Robertson, and Lara Procopio. This may just be another fight that contains a favorite I can't justify paying for, but the fact that her opponent will look to target her weakness directly makes the play a bit more intriguing.
Ketlen Vieira ($9,100)
Pannie Kianzad hasn't faced many dedicated grapplers in her UFC tenure, but the ones who have stepped in the cage with her have troubled her even in victory. Sijara Eubanks had a dominant first round from top position before flagging hard in frames two and three, and we have seen "Fenomeno" win five-round decisions against fighters with good gas tanks. The power difference should also be noticeable immediately, and I'm not convinced Kianzad will be able to be on her bike long enough to avoid being hit.
Marc Diakiese ($7,200)
A prerequisite of making this pick is recognizing that Joel Alvarez is entirely live to pull off a submission from bottom position, but "El Fenomeno" does so little outside of opportunistic grappling that I can't pick him against a fighter who is active and powerful on the feet and very willing to take the fight to the ground. This could just as easily result in Alvarez burning through minutes looking for those submissions, which would give "Bonecrusher" a good amount of purchase on the Judges' scorecards.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Jafel Filho OVER 28.5 Significant Strikes, Makhmud Muradov OVER 44.5 Significant Strikes, and Daniel Marcos OVER 68.5 Significant Strikes.
Filho's slick work on the ground in his first fight with the company largely came due to Muhammad Mokaev constantly looking for the takedown, as "Pastor" seemed content to strike from range and use his jiujitsu when needed. That's not to say that Filho won't look for his own takedowns, but he is much more willing to swing from range than your average submission grappler, Daniel Barez displayed an incredible commitment to grappling in his bout on the Contender Series, taking down Carlos Hernandez five times in 16 attempts.
Muradov's line here seems to be influenced far too heavily by his last two fights, both of which were contested against opponents with a grappling-heavy fighting style. Bryan Barberena has notched just two takedowns in his entire UFC career, as "Bam Bam" likes to physically break his opponents with pace and pressure. This should result in fists flying from the outset, allowing us to clear our mark rather easily.
Marcos will face a fighter similar to Barberena in Davey Grant, who will swing big in the pocket and take a tremendous amount of punishment to land his shots. Grant has been hard to put away in his career, so this should be a fun standup affair that sees the two men trade punches.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Tom Aspinall- 2.45 X Multiplier
No, that isn't a misprint. The (-500) favorite in his bout against Marcin Tybura has been given the second-highest multiplier on the slate. Whatever the reason for this, we need to take advantage of the opportunity, as Aspinall will be the faster, cleaner, and more powerful striker in this matchup. Things may get a bit more interesting if the fight hits the ground, but Aspinall has shown himself to be more than capable there, notching submission victories over Andrei Arlovski and Alexander Volkov. This will be Aspinall's first appearance since he suffered a fight-ending knee injury in his bout with Curtis Blaydes last year, but he will likely be the better fighter everywhere and needs to be plugged into lineups due to the bizarrely-high multiplier.
Danny Roberts – 1.8 X Multiplier
Roberts has looked suspiciously easy to hurt in his last few fights, but "Hot Chocolate" remains as tough as ever, having only been finished by strikes four times in 26 career contests. Jonny Parsons simply looks underdeveloped for a fighter at this level, as his upright stance can yield takedowns, and his lack of defense can result in " The Slugger" eating big shots. Roberts will have stark advantages in both speed and technique and won't need to tighten up his defense much to stay in control of this one.
Lerone Murphy – 1.75 X Multiplier
Both Murphy and Josh Culiabao tend to slow fights down, but "Kuya" will likely be in trouble if he tries to go shot-for-shot with Murphy, who is a very polished striker with power. "The Miracle" has shown the ability to grapple as well, giving him many different ways to get ahead of his opponent in this matchup.
Bets to Consider
Fares Ziam and Jai Herbert Fight Goes the Distance (-122)
Speaking of fighters that slow the pace down, Ziam will always look to get a contest on his terms, as evidenced by the paltry 2.52 significant strikes he has landed per minute in the Octagon. Herbert has comparable measurements to "The Smile Killer" when it comes to both height and reach, which could lead to even less activity than usual as the two men look for avenues to create offense.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC London Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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