This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Paris Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Paris card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Bolaji Oki (9-1-0) v. Chris Duncan (11-2-0)
Bolaji Oki - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Chris Duncan - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an intriguing first matchup of the night. Oki is a considerable favorite, although I am unsure why. His debut win was anything but convincing, and he will need to be more aggressive to beat Duncan. Duncan won his first two UFC fights but lost his most recent one to a high-flying prospect. I expect Duncan to step on the gas first and finish this fight early, handing Oki his first UFC loss. If the finish comes within the first couple of rounds, the winner should score well for DFS purposes.
UFC Paris Pick: Duncan
Nora Cornolle (8-1-0) v. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (7-1-0)
Nora Cornolle - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Jacqueline Cavalcanti - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should be decided in one of two ways: Cornolle by knockout or Cavalcanti by decision. It should come down to whether or not Cornolle can get inside of Cavalcanti, as she has far more power. Cavalcanti has a considerable speed advantage and would be wise to keep this fight at range. However, that likely leads to a low-scoring decision. I will side with the dog and look for the knockout, which will score well for DFS, particularly as the dog.
UFC Paris Pick: Cornolle
Daniel Barez (16-6-0) v. Victor Altamirano (12-4-0)
Daniel Barez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
Victor Altamirano - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Barez will make his second UFC after a submission loss in his debut. He did have a knockdown in that fight, and his striking will be a big part of this fight if he were to win. Altamirano is on a two-fight skid but has fought the better competition, and I expect he will be able to navigate his way to a win. I would not expect a high score for DFS without a finish.
UFC Paris Pick: Altamirano
Ailin Perez (10-2-0) v. Darya Zheleznyakova (14-4-0)
Ailin Perez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
Darya Zheleznyakova - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Zheleznyakova will need her striking to be on point and to stuff takedowns. However, Perez's wrestling is much better than Zheleznyakova's debut opponent, and I expect her to control most of this fight on the mat. Perez could potentially be one of the highest DFS scorers on the slate with her takedowns and ground-and-pound.
UFC Paris Pick: Perez
Taylor Lapilus (20-4-0) v. Vince Morales (16-7-0)
Taylor Lapilus - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
Vince Morales - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Morales has been relegated to the regional circuits for nearly two years, and prior to that, had lost four of his last six UFC fights. He has been less than impressive and should lose his third in a row. Lapilus for back in the win column last time out may have been his best performance yet. I expect him to outpoint Morales to another win, though it will likely be a lower-scoring decision.
UFC Paris Pick: Lapilus
L'udovit Klein (22-4-1) v. Roosevelt Roberts (12-4-0)
L'udovit Klein - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 22 wins
Roosevelt Roberts - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Roberts is getting another UFC fight, though I do not see it being different from the previous four. Klein will be better everywhere, particularly on the feet. Roosevelt will need a lucky knockout to win this fight. Without a finish, this fight likely does not score well enough for the optimal DFS lineup.
UFC Paris Pick: Klein
Oumar Sy (10-0-0) v. Da Woon Jung (15-5-1)
Oumar Sy - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 83" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Da Woon Jung - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Jung has lost three in a row, but I would not count him out of this fight, as he is still a dangerous finisher. He makes for a solid GPP dart throw, especially against a still-green UFC fighter. We will get a solid look into Sy as a fighter in this fight. His debut ended in the first round with some impressive grappling against a striker. Given the likelihood of a finish, Sy will likely be heavily-rostered in contests.
UFC Paris Pick: Sy
Ion Cutelaba (17-10-1) v. Ivan Erslan (14-3-0)
Ion Cutelaba - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
Ivan Erslan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight is expected to finish within the first two rounds, making it an excellent fight to target for GPP contests. Cutelaba has fought much better competition, but his durability is becoming a big question mark and makes me lean towards Erslan. I expect fireworks, and you need one side or the other for DFS.
UFC Paris Pick: Erslan
Fares Ziam (15-4-0) v. Matt Frevola (11-4-1)
Fares Ziam - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Matt Frevola - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Over the last five fights, Frevola has killed or been killed in the first round. Ziam has yet to record a finish in the UFC, and that is not likely to change that in this one. Frevola will have plenty of opportunities to score the knockout, and he will be the only logical DFS play. If Ziam wins, it will be a low-scoring decision.
UFC Paris Pick: Frevola
Morgan Charriere (19-10-1) v. Gabriel Miranda (17-6-0)
Morgan Charriere - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins
Gabriel Miranda - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Many people will lock Charriere in to win this fight, and he likely does. However, there aren't many fighters as dangerous as Miranda on the ground. Charriere would be wise to use his power and keep this standing. There will likely be times when the fight is close, and Charriere is in danger, but I expect him to stuff the majority of takedowns and win this on the feet.
UFC Paris Pick: Charriere
Kevin Jousset (10-2-0) v. Bryan Battle (10-2-0)
Kevin Jousset - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
Bryan Battle - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Through two fights, Jousset has shown off his technical striking in convincing wins. He now draws the biggest fight of his career against Battle, who is 5-1 in UFC and continues to get better with every fight. I could see Battle sometimes struggling on the feet, getting outpointed, and taking it to the mat, where he would dominate. I expect Battle to come away with the win and score well for DFS.
UFC Paris Pick: Battle
William Gomis (13-2-0) v. Joanderson Brito (17-3-1)
William Gomis - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Joanderson Brito - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Gomis moved to 3-0 in the UFC after recording his first UFC knockout last time out, while Brito earned his fifth win in a row with his fifth consecutive finish. Gomis has a solid all-around game, but I expect Brito to be better everywhere, particularly with his power. I expect Brito to finish this early and have another high score in DFS.
UFC Paris Pick: Brito
Nassourdine Imavov (14-4-0) v. Brendan Allen (24-5-0)
Nassourdine Imavov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Brendan Allen - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a battle between the 4th and 8th-ranked fighters in the division. Imavov will have a slight edge in speed and striking, while Allen should have the edge everywhere else. This fight will likely be close throughout the 15 minutes. The difference in the fight will be the volume from Imavov or the groundwork from Allen. I would try and get both sides of this fight in GPP contests.
UFC Paris Pick: Allen
Renato Moicano (19-5-1) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (13-2-0)
Renato Moicano - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Benoit Saint-Denis - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Aside from a Hail Mary submission, I do not see a way Moicano will win this fight. Saint-Denis is far and away better everywhere, especially on the feet. I expect him to dominate from the start until he finishes it, and he is a lock for all contests.
UFC Paris Pick: Saint-Denis
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
