This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC St. Louis Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC St. Louis card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
JJ Aldrich (13-6-0) v. Veronica Hardy (8-4-1)
JJ Aldrich - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 13 wins
Veronica Hardy - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a low-level fight. Hardy has returned to the UFC with back-to-back wins, albeit against lesser competition. Aldrich is also riding a two-fight winning streak but against slightly better competition. I think the odds for this flight are flipped. Aldrich should be the dog and I expect her to have her way with Hardy. She is the better striker and wrestler and should score decently in a win as a dog.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Aldrich
Jared Gooden (23-9-0) v. Kevin Jousset (10-2-0)
Jared Gooden - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 23 wins
Kevin Jousset - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I was on Gooden for his huge upset win in his last fight. However, I will not be for this fight. He is always live for a flash knockout or submission, but Jousset is so technically sound, so I do not see it happening. I expect Jousset to throw jab after jab, causing all sorts of issues for Gooden. A finish for the young prospect is likely, and he should score well for DFS.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Jousset
Jake Hadley (10-2-0) v. Charles Johnson (14-6-0)
Jake Hadley - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Charles Johnson - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the harder fights to examine, as neither guy has done exceptionally well recently. I see both guys having slightly similar skill sets, with the exception being Hadley's grappling ability. That grappling will likely be the difference in this fight. If Hadley can succeed with takedowns, he'll have no problem in this one. GPP fight only.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Hadley
Trey Waters (8-1-0) v. Billy Goff (9-2-0)
Trey Waters - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Billy Goff - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Waters has a massive reach and height advantage, but it is the only one I would give him. Goff is better everywhere, particularly with power and on the mat. I expect this to be close while Goff figures out the best way into the pocket and then for it to be over quickly once he does. Goff should finish this early by knockout and score well for DFS, making him an excellent play for cash and GPP contests.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Goff
Tabatha Ricci (9-2-0) v. Tecia Pennington (13-6-0)
Tabatha Ricci - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 9 wins
Tecia Pennington - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 60" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Pennington makes her return to the ring after being away due to having a baby. It will be difficult to trust her until the proverbial ring rust wears off. I would take Baby Shark (Ricci) in this fight either way. I expect Ricci to have her way in every aspect of this fight. I would not be surprised to see Ricci win this fight by submission, but a decision is more likely. Without the finish, this fight likely does not score well for DFS.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Ricci (Baby Shark)
Terrance McKinney (15-6-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (12-1-0)
Terrance McKinney - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins
Esteban Ribovics - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a pure GPP fight where you NEED to target one side or the other. Someone is getting finished, and likely within the first two rounds. Both guys love leaving it all out there and finishing inside the distance. Ribovics has never been finished, but I can see that changing here. He has not faced the best competition -- especially not anyone like McKinney. I expect McKinney to exploit the takedown defense of Ribovics and finish this one on the mat. He is another dog that could smash value.
UFC St. Louis Pick: McKinney
Chase Hooper (13-3-1) v. Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3-1)
Chase Hooper - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Slava Borshchev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Though Hooper's striking has improved dramatically, he will still be at a disadvantage on the feet. Nonetheless, he will have a significant edge on the mat and should be looking to get it there early and often. This fight entirely comes down to Borshchev's takedown defense and how many he can avoid. I do not think it will be enough before he is submitted. I expect Hooper to finish this inside the distance, making him another exciting dog play for DFS.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Hooper
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (11-1-0) v. Robelis Despaigne (5-0-0)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
Robelis Despaigne - Height: 6'7" - Reach: 84" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Despaigne wowed the MMA community with an 18-second knockout in his debut. Cortes-Acosta is 4-1 in his UFC tenure but has not fought anyone like Despaigne. He wins this fight by avoiding the knockout and beating up on an eventually gassed-out Despaigne. However, I do not see this happening and expect Despaigne to record another early knockout. He is a solid play for all DFS contests.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Despaigne
Alex Caceres (21-14-0) v. Sean Woodson (11-1-1)
Alex Caceres - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 21 wins
Sean Woodson - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to be close on the feet, with Woodson having the edge due to his reach advantage. I would also give Woodson a considerable edge on the mat where a submission is in play, as Caceres has been submitted seven times in his career. I do not see a high score coming out of this fight without a finish, but Woodson is the pick.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Woodson
Diego Ferreira (18-5-0) v. Mateusz Rebecki (19-1-0)
Carlos Diego Ferreira - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
Mateusz Rebecki - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Ferreira is now 39, and though he still has pop, I do not expect him to win a fight against someone with the massive potential of Rebecki. Rebecki has been nothing short of impressive since joining the UFC, and I do not see it stopping here. I expect him to continue his dominance and finish this inside the distance, making him one of the best plays on the slate.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Rebecki
Alonzo Menifield (15-3-1) v. Carlos Ulberg (9-1-0)
Alonzo Menifield - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Carlos Ulberg - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: I will likely only have exposure to this fight to GPP contests. I expect this to be a 15-minute striking match, with Ulberg leading the way in volume. Menifield has power and is solid in the clinch, but I do not see him getting enough done to steal it. A lower score is expected for DFS without a finish in the first two rounds.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Ulberg
Joaquin Buckley (18-6-0) v. Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2)
Joaquin Buckley - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 76" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Nursulton Ruziboev - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 32 finishes in 34 wins
DFS Perspective: Buckley has put together a nice three-fight win streak, winning two by knockout and the other by unanimous decision. He offers little on the mat but is always live for a knockout while the fight is standing. Ruziboev has looked phenomenal in his two UFC fights, winning by first-round knockout. He now draws a considerable step up in competition. I expect this to be close for a bit but for the dog to take over as he gets a feel for Buckley. Ruziboev has more experience and a better overall skillset. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Ruziboev
Derrick Lewis (27-12-0) v. Rodrigo Nascimento (11-1-0)
Derrick Lewis - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 23 finishes in 27 wins
Rodrigo Nascimento - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Lewis is always live for a knockout, but he likely struggles to get to that point in this fight. Nascimento's striking has drastically improved over the last few fights, but his ground game will seal this one. I expect him to get this down early, where Lewis generally has no answer for anyone. Nascimento is one of the best plays on the card for DFS if he uses his ground game and finishes within the first two rounds.
UFC St. Louis Pick: Nascimento
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
