Saturday's 12-fight card is almost entirely populated with competitors from Dana White's "Road to UFC" Series, which featured up-incoming fighters most bettors and DFS players are likely unfamiliar with. If you are reading this and don't remember much of the show (or skipped it entirely), have no fear, as we will break down every fight in order to give prospective players an edge on the competition. We will also take a look at a heavyweight main event, in which a UFC record holder will look to regain respect after a few tough fights. Our betting lines this week come from William Hill and are accurate as to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jun Yong Park ($8,500)
Park hasn't always been willing to commit to a wrestling attack but knew just what to do against a much longer opponent in Joseph Holmes, taking him down twice and logging 5:37 of control time before finding a submission in the second round. Denis Tiuliulin's comparatively shorter reach shouldn't be much of a deterrent when one considers he's far more dangerous than Holmes on the feet, having secured nine of 10 victories by KO/TKO. It's also worth noting that half of the Russian fighter's six career losses have come by submission, giving Park a clear path to victory should he opt to take it.
Seung Guk Choi ($7,800)
Athleticism holds court at flyweight, where the faster, more agile fighters can generally get the drop on their slow-footed counterparts without worrying too much about the power coming back at them. Such should be the case in Choi's fight with Hyun Sung Park, who likes to plant his feet and throw in the pocket, but has notched just three of his seven wins via strikes. Park was dropped hard in the opening minute of his fight with Top Noi Kiwram, and while he was able to use his grappling to recover against the Thai striker, Choi's wrestling game should work to keep him safe on the ground against the larger man. If Park can't completely dominate in this area, I expect Choi to light him up with combinations at kickboxing range.
Da Un Jung ($8,400)
The last time Jung fought a shorter, stocky wrestler who tried to take him down, the Korean fighter turned the tables, notching eight takedowns and over 12 minutes of control time against William Knight. Clark will have no choice but to try and get on the inside against the 6-foot-4 frame of his opponent, which should lead to 50/50 tie-ups and grappling exchanges. I expect Jung to have the advantage here, as Clark sports just a 55 percent takedown defense rate, having been grounded eight times in April by Ion Cutelaba.
Yusaku Kinoshita ($9,100)
Adam Fugitt made a good account of himself during his debut against prospect Michael Morales but couldn't handle the relentless pressure and aggression of the Ecuadorian fighter. While Kinoshita doesn't have the power of Morales, he showcases a well-rounded, athletic game. This should be enough to take the fight from Fugitt, even if he lands a few good shots along the way.
Kyle Nelson ($7,600)
Nelson versus Doo Ho Choi may come down to which fighter is less durable. Choi is athletic and has more weapons at his disposal, but tends to fade after fast starts if his opponent doesn't go away. "The Monster" had his tank drained by Billy Quarantillo when the two fought in 2020, but he will be the one coming forward and making this fight ugly. "Super Boy" will almost certainly have success in the opening minutes, but I can't trust him to carry this one over 15 minutes, particularly since this will be his first time in the cage in more than three years.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Rinya Nakamura UNDER 1.5 Takedowns and Marcin Tybura UNDER 1.5 Takedowns
Nakamura comes into this fight as a national wrestling champion in his native Japan, but we've seen "Hybrid" choose to use his power and athleticism to take over fights in the past. Meanwhile, Toshiomi Kazama is a crafty submission grappler who has finished half of his victories by tapout. This will likely keep Nakamura standing for the majority of the bout, so as not to give his opponent one of his few paths to victory.
The line for Marcin Tybura seems peculiar, as Blagoy Ivanov has never been taken down more than once in any of his six UFC fights. Beyond that, it strikes me that "Tybur" should be the athletic kickboxer here (relatively speaking), while Ivanov will likely look to wing power shots and employ his Judo. Finally, Tybura has never been a particularly active wrestler, averaging less than 1.5 takedowns landed per 15 minutes of cage time.
Tatsuro Taira OVER 30.5 Significant Strikes and Anshul Jubli OVER 52.5 Significant Strikes
We could be in for a grappler's delight when Tiara takes on Jesus Aguilar, but even if a decent portion of the fight is contested on the ground, this total still feels quite low. Tiara's fight with Carlos Candelario saw the two competitors in grappling exchanges for more than 10 minutes, and the undefeated fighter still managed to blow past the total above with 57 significant strikes. Unless a finish materializes early, I expect these two men to generate enough offense at range for Taira to comfortably exceed his number here.
Jubli is another fighter who can do a bit of everything, but what really stands out about "King of Lions" is his dedicated bodywork and ability to mix his targets seamlessly. Jeka Saragih is an aggressive counter fighter and should get all he can handle, as Jubli controls the center of the cage looking to throw in combination. Jubli is undefeated, while Saragih has been finished just twice in 15 professional fights, which makes it likely that these two will be tough enough to swing until the final bell.
Bets to Consider
Derrick Lewis wins via KO/TKO or DQ (+230)
My reasoning for this play remains the same as when this fight was first booked in November. Namely, no fighter in the UFC has beaten Derrick Lewis by out-grappling him, and Sergey Spivac has been knocked out by big punchers inside the Octagon. Lewis's most recent losses have come against terrifying power strikers such as Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich, but if you can't knock him out, that means "The Black Beast" will have 15 minutes to line up a kill shot.
Mandy Bohm (+230)
I'm struggling to understand why Bohm is such a big underdog in this spot, aside from the fact that she has yet to win in the Octagon (0-2). Ji Yeon Kim has lost four consecutive fights and seemed completely out of answers when a one-dimensional fighter with power like Priscila Cachoeira took the center of the Octagon during their bout last year. Kim is a volume striker who can overwhelm her opponents, but she is not nearly as precise or powerful as Ariane Lipski, nor can she grapple like Victoria Leonardo. This should allow Bohm to pick off her unstructured opponent on the way in while getting ahead with the judges when she is able to get on her front foot.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 68 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Jeong Yeong Lee OVER 40.5 Strikes and Yi Zha OVER 30.5 Strikes
Lee looks like he was sculpted out of marble with fists to match, having knocked out two of his last three opponents in under a minute. While this may give those who want to play the under pause, Zha is very good at keeping range, will grapple when he finds himself in sticky situations and has been knocked out just once in 24 professional fights. I think Zha will avoid brawling with "The Korean Tiger," allowing both men to hit their marks.
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