This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
Saturday's 11-fight slate bears more resemblance to Frankenstein's monster than a fight card in the world's elite MMA organization, but we are here just the same with takes to help you maximize profit in both betting and DFS. We'll cover every fight across four platforms, including a sizeable dog who deserves more respect, and a veteran who may be getting overlooked. Our betting line this week comes from William Hill and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jamey-Lyn Horth ($8,300)
We have yet to see Hailey Cowan step into the Octagon despite two previously scheduled bouts in the UFC. In the past, I've noted that Cowan's physicality is the only tangible advantage she will have over fighters at this level. This shouldn't be the case against Horth, as the two share identical reach measurements, while "All Hail" is taller by one inch. While Horth isn't a particularly crisp striker, she is aggressive and powerful in all ranges. This should allow her to win this fight regardless of where it takes place.
Stephanie Egger ($9,400)
Strength will factor into Egger's bout with newcomer Irina Alekseeva as well, but in this case, I trust the experience (as well as the high-level judo skills) of Egger to get the job done. Alekseeva is a rangy striker who can grapple a bit in her own right, but her athleticism is simply not where it needs to be in order to win fights at this level. I expect that Egger will force clinches, which will give Alekseeva the fight that she wants, but I see nothing to suggest that she will be able to outmuscle or compete on the ground with the UFC veteran.
Cody Durden ($7,500)
I'll be the first to admit that I haven't bought into the Charles Johnson show despite some impressive UFC wins. It's not that I don't think he's talented, but rather that his tendency to get backed into the fence and eat shots should make him vulnerable to heavy-handed wrestlers. Enter Durden, who counts six knockouts and five submissions among his 15 professional MMA wins. Johnson has notched just a 60 percent takedown defense rate during his time with the UFC, while Durden has completed more than four takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. This all spells trouble for "InnerG," and makes Durden well worth a roster spot at this price.
Ricky Simon ($8,400)
Yadong Song's takedown defense rate looks solid at 71 percent, but he has been brought to the mat multiple times in a fight more than once in his UFC tenure, including when he was grounded five times by Cody Stamann in 2019. Simon is a tireless wrestler who will push a pace on Song that he should find difficult to deal with, as the "Kung Fu Kid" tends to stand very heavily on his lead leg. Simon has scored more than 100 DraftKings points six times in 11 UFC fights, which could make him an absolute steal in a five-round affair at this price.
Rodolfo Vieira ($9,100)
Cody Brundage has shown himself to be a strong grappler, but the 28-year-old has struggled with committed wrestlers in the past, as Nick Maximov was able to keep him on the mat for 9:52 when the two fought in 2021. Vieira will apply that same level of commitment and is far and away the best submission threat Brundage has ever faced, which makes me wonder how long he will be able to survive once this fight hits the floor. It should also be noted that "The Blackbelt Hunter's" cardio has looked infinitely better since he gassed against Anthony Hernandez, so he should be able to sustain an attack even if his first few takedown attempts don't bear fruit.
Journey Newson ($7,300)
I'm not exactly sure how much Newson will try to wrestle against Marcus McGhee, but he needs to be selected on DraftKings to make the most out of his status as a (-190) favorite after Brian Kelleher was scratched from the upcoming bout. McGhee is a pressure fighter who does good bodywork, but his defense is almost nonexistent, which should allow a solid boxer like Newson to score early and often with his jab.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Martin Buday UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time and Josh Quinlan OVER 7.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Our first fight on this list may seem more difficult to call given the fact that there are decisions strewn about the record of both Buday and Jake Collier, but I would argue the most recent of those are matchup dependent on both sides. Collier should push his usual exhausting pace to open the bout, which will leave both men tired and looking for a way out if this fight goes past the second round. While this could also lead to a sloppy decision, it seems more likely that one of these heavy hitters gets the job done.
Trey Waters is a lanky counter striker, who won the vacant LFA title by absolutely folding his opponent with one crisp hook. "The Truth" fights at a very slow pace while waiting for his opportunities, and while he suffers from typical tall-man defense, the five-inch reach advantage he holds over Josh Quinlan should make it difficult for "Bushido" to get on the inside and land strikes.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Michal Oleksiejczuk – 2.25 X Multiplier
The explosive speed and power were on full display when Oleksiejczuk made his middleweight debut against Cody Brundage, which led to a stoppage by strikes in the first round. Caio Borralho can do a little bit of everything in the cage, but we've seen him get tired late in fights, and I don't think he will be able to keep up with Oleksiejczuk as the Polish fighter continuously scrambles and gets back to his feet after being taken down. It may materialize late, but I think Oleksiejczuk has the tools to wear out his young opponent and potentially get a second or third-round stoppage.
Fernando Padilla - 2.05 X Multiplier
Padilla's fight against Julian Erosa should be lined much closer to even, in my estimation. While the two fighters have similar frames and styles, I expect Padilla to win the pressure war and be the one controlling real estate in the Octagon. Padilla is also the far better defensive fighter and is a solid enough grappler that "Juicy J" won't be able to use his wrestling as an escape hatch when he gets into trouble.
Bets to Consider
Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins via KO/TKO or disqualification
The amount of love I've seen for Waldo Cortes-Acosta this week can only be due to how spectacularly unreliable "Pezao" has been throughout his career. Be that as it may, I'm still not sure the former boxer and minor-league baseball player belongs at this level. He hasn't shown much power in his wins over Chase Sherman and Jared Vanderaa and will be facing his first actual power puncher in the organization. For me, this one comes down to speed and power. De Lima has the edge in both, and I'm not sure what Cortes-Acosta can do to make up that gap.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 72 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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