This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The UFC is back after a week-long hiatus to bring us 11 more fights we can analyze to determine how to turn the most profit in DFS and betting formats. We'll break down each bout across four platforms, including a slick-handed boxer with underrated grappling, and a knockout artist who may be worth a flyer as a sizeable underdog. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Aori Qileng ($8,200)
Qileng paid for his blind aggression in his last fight against Aiemann Zahabi, but it's that same willingness to throw caution to the wind that has me picking him against Johnny Munoz, who sports just a 46 percent takedown defense rate heading into the bout. Munoz is a decent grappler in his own right but is too willing to play off of his back, which should allow for the more physical fighter to control position on the ground.
Kanako Murata ($8,900)
We can all but throw out the latter half of Murata's bout with Virna Jandiroba, as an injury rendered her a one-armed fighter after Round 1. When she is at her best, the Japanese fighter throws heavy shots in order to close distance and get her takedowns. From there, her physicality and ferocious ground-and-pound tend to get things done. Vanessa Demopoulos is on the wrong side of a three-inch reach disadvantage here, meaning she will need to try and close the distance to find her range. This should allow Murata to get her takedowns and go to work.
Bill Algeo ($8,400)
It's been well established that Alexander Hernandez does not fare well against opponents who are able to hang around and push a pace. "The Great Ape" got a reprieve from this type of fighter in his last fight against Jim Miller but now faces someone in Algeo who has landed almost six strikes per minute of Octagon time. "Senor Perfecto" is open to be hit and Hernandez is a slick boxer, but he needs to show he can win in these kinds of matchups before I start picking him to do so.
Mateus Mendonca ($9,000)
Nate Maness' healthy 75 percent takedown defense rate speaks to just how often "Mayhem" has faced opponents who try to take him to the mat. While he's certainly adept at staying on his feet, the fact remains that he has been taken down in all but one of his five UFC fights. It should also be noted that he lost his last two bouts in dominant fashion to smothering grapplers. While Mendonca may not have the control of an Umar Nurmagomedov or Tagir Ulanbekov, his fast hands and athleticism complement his wrestling and BJJ prowess. Maness is a formidable boxer, but Mendonca will have too many tools to help him win this one.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
JJ Aldrich UNDER 51.5 Significant Strikes, Karolina Kowalkiewicz OVER 80.5 Significant Strikes, and Ion Cutelaba UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes
Aldrich's line here is a bit perplexing, as she hasn't cleared this mark in any of her last three fights and now faces an extremely low-output fighter, who will look to work in the clinch and take the fight to the ground when possible. I expect much of this fight to be contested in close quarters, which should work to keep the strike totals low
In stark contrast, Kowalkiewicz is fighting someone in Diana Belbita who has logged 6.6 strikes per minute in five UFC fights. Karolina wants nothing more than to stand in the pocket and throw volume, which should see a total like this cleared fairly convincingly in the absence of a knockout threat
Cuteaba vs. Philipe Lins will likely be a fight in which either the fast start of Cutelaba leads to an early knockout, or the slow pace of Lins will work to depress strikes from range. In either scenario, we are on the right side of this one, as it's difficult to see these two men standing and trading at range for too long without someone getting finished.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Abdul Razak Alhassan – 2.2 X Multiplier
I'm not quite sure whether this pick will be viewed as understandable due to the shallow nature of the slate or a contrarian play, but it just seems like GPP players are supposed to take a shot with Alhassan in this spot. While he can be something of a glass cannon, "Judo Thunder" is far more experienced against high-level opponents, having notched 11 fights in the Octagon. While Joe Pyfer has finished both of his UFC fights in impressive fashion, neither of those men possessed the speed or power of someone like Alhassan. We should also note that, as his nickname suggests, Alhassan should be able to mix in some takedowns to keep Pyfer off balance. "Bodybagz" may steamroll another opponent, but we've seen fighters take losses as prospects that would be a lot worse than this one.
Bobby Green -2.25 X Multiplier
I certainly didn't head into this week expecting to pick two of the biggest dogs on the card, but I'm just not sure of the praise being heaped on Grant Dawson. To be sure, we have seen him dominate fighters with his grappling, but we've also seen him get dropped by a Greco-Roman wrestler in Mark Madsen and get beaten so badly by Rick Glenn in the third round of their fight that the match was called a draw. Dawson could work his magic on the ground again, but the only fighter we've seen outgrapple Bobby Green in recent memory was Islam Makhachev, who may be the pound-for-pound strongest wrestler in the organization. I can't trust that Dawson will have his way with "King" on the ground, and Bobby will be the infinitely faster and crisper striker if the bout stays standing.
Bets to Consider
Drew Dober wins via KO/TKO (-145)
The toughness of Rick Glenn is what allowed him to hang around and get the upper hand in his fight with Grant Dawson, but we've also seen "The Gladiator" unable to deal with the power of opponents like Christos Giagos. Dober has that power with speed to match, which doesn't bode well for a fighter like Glenn who is going to be walking flatfooted into the pocket.
Joaquin Buckley wins via KO/TKO (-110)
The speed and power dynamic will once again be lopsided in favor of one fighter, as Buckley has shown off some incredibly slick knockouts in the Octagon. Alex Morono stands so square to his opponents that he seemingly can't get out of the way of certain things, which has allowed him to be overwhelmed and stopped in bouts against Santiago Ponzinibbio and Khaos Williams.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 80 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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