This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is back after a weekend off, as the Octagon remains at the UFC Apex on Saturday, Oct. 7 for UFC Vegas 80. In the main event, Grant Dawson takes on Bobby Green at lightweight.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Montana De La Rosa (12-8-1) vs. JJ Aldrich (12-6)
Opening up UFC Vegas 80 is an intriguing women's flyweight matchup between Montana De La Rosa and JJ Aldrich. Both been inconsistent in their respective careers.
De La Rosa is coming off back-to-back losses, but she has been fighting a much higher level of competition than Aldrich. Both fighters also have negative striking differential in their UFC careers, but this fight will likely play out on the mat for the most part. In that scenario, De La Rosa is the much better grappler.
De La Rosa averages 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes and nearly averages one submission attempt per fight, while Aldirch has a middling takedown defense of 65 percent. I expect De La Rosa to be able to get Aldrich down and either sink in a submission or grind out a clear-cut decision as a short favorite.
UFC Vegas 80 Best Bet: Montana De La Rosa (-135)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Alex Morono (23-8) vs. Joaquin Buckley (16-6)
When Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley was booked, I figured Morono would be around a -150 to -160 favorite, so getting the Fortis MMA product as an underdog makes this a must-play for me.
Buckley has gotten a lot of respect from bookmakers, in large part due to his highlight-reel KO back in 2020. However, his chin is still a big question mark, as Chris Curtis was able to KO him, as too was Alessio Di Chirico.
Morono is primarily a striker who has a solid chin and can overwhelm fighters. His cardio is also one of his best weapons, so I expect Morono to take control of this fight the longer it goes.
Morono currently lands 5.2 significant strikes per minute, while Buckley is only landing 3.76. The volume will be the difference, as I expect it to go the distance. I'll take the shot on Morono.
UFC Vegas 80 Best Bet: Alex Morono (+142)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Grant Dawson (20-1-1) vs. Bobby Green (30-14-1)
In the main event of UFC Vegas 80, Grant Dawson gets his first headlining shot against the always-entertaining Bobby Green.
This fight is pretty straightforward, as Dawson will look to wrestle and control Green, while 'King' wants to keep it on the feet and out-strike Dawson. The problem for Green is he doesn't have that one-punch KO power, so he will most likely have to keep it standing for all 25 minutes if he's going to win.
Dawson, meanwhile, is fine just grinding out fights and looking for a submission late. Given this is his first five-round scrap in the UFC, I expect Dawson to not overexert himself in the early rounds to make sure his cardio is there for all 25 minutes.
Ultimately, I expect Dawson to get Green down and will likely secure a late finish, but taking the fight to start Round 3 at -168 is the best way to attack it.
UFC Vegas 80 Best Bet: Grant Dawson-Bobby Green Fight Starts Round 3 (-168)
Weight Classes: Middleweight & Flyweight
Joe Pyfer (11-2) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-5)
Mateus Mendonca (10-1) vs. Nate Maness (14-3)
For my parlay, I'm taking Joe Pyfer to beat Abdul Razak Alhassan in the co-main event and Mateus Mendonca to defeat Nate Maness on the prelims.
Mendonca is coming off a loss to Javid Basharat in his UFC debut, but he did look good in that fight despite losing. The Brazilian showed off a pretty solid ground game, while I worry about Maness at flyweight, as the weight cut is quite intense. Since dropping down in weight, he was quickly submitted by Tagir Ulanbekov, which is a bit of a concern going against a grappler in Mendonca.
Mendonca is a finisher, and I expect him to hurt Maness on the feet and then sink in a choke early in the scrap to get his first UFC win.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Pyfer to remain undefeated in the UFC when he takes on Alhassan.
Alhassan is there to be hit, as he has a negative striking differential in the UFC, but Pyfer still needs to be cautious of his power, as he still has legit one-punch KO power. However, his cardio and volume are a concern, as I expect Pyfer to go back to his wrestling to control this fight.
Pyfer is averaging 1.65 takedowns per 15 minutes and is 100 percent on takedown attempts, while Alhassan has just a 52 percent takedown defense. The Philly native should be able to outwrestle Alhassan and find a finish on the ground in the second round.
UFC Vegas 80 Best Bet: Joe Pyfer & Mateus Mendonca parlay (-139)
UFC Vegas 80 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 80 best bets:
- Montana De La Rosa (-135)
- Alex Morono (+142)
- Grant Dawson-Bobby Green Fight Starts Rounds 3 (-168)
- Joe Pyfer & Mateus Mendonca parlay (-139)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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