This week's fight card may not have the stakes of a pay-per-view, but the 13-bout slate does feature quite a few matchups slated to end inside the distance, as well as close bouts that we can use for leverage by definitively picking a winner. We'll take a look at every fight across three platforms, including long odds on a fighter who has shown his heavy hands of late and an underdog who will look to use all of his skills to pick up a victory. Our line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate to the post date of this article
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Gerald Meerschaert ($9,100)
Meerschaert can have the fight taken out of him by the right opponent, but Bryan Barberena is not that guy, as he has been taken down at least four times in seven of his UFC fights. He has also lost two of his last three fights by submission. Barbarena can hit hard, but Meerschaert has shown the ability to fight while tired, making this a perfect scenario for "GM3" to put up 100 points or more.
Jaqueline Amorim ($8,000)
Given her lack of power and her inability to find her range in space, it seems unlikely that Cory McKenna will have much success if she can't take the fight to the ground. Amorim should have a clear strength advantage in grappling, and while she may not be a crisp striker, her confidence to stand in the pocket and throw shots should be more than enough to win exchanges. This amounts to Amorim being better everywhere, which should lead to a big score at this price.
Mike Davis ($9200)
Davis is the definition of an action fighter, having landed 5.83 significant strikes per minute and 3.04 takedowns per 15 minutes of cage time. The upshot of all this activity is that Davis can be taken down and hit fairly easily from range. Natan Levy is an aggressive grappler, but the athleticism and power of "Beast Boy" should carry him here, as even if he is grounded, he should be able to return to his feet, leading to the sapping of his opponent's gas tank.
Chad Anheliger ($7,300)
Anheliger's status as a sizeable underdog seems strange, as he is well put together as a fighter, using his movement to dart into range with strikes before pressing for takedowns. Charalampos Grigoriou is a physically strong fighter with power, but I think Anheliger's movement will pay dividends here, allowing him to hit, not get hit, and score on the ground when necessary.
Christian Rodriguez ($7,700)
Speaking of fighters who are put together well, Rodriguez can do a bit of everything in the cage, as his wrestling compliments his effective kickboxing and countershots. Isaac Dulgarian is a powerhouse who looks to overwhelm his opponents, but Rodriguez stays composed in the cage, which should come in handy when "The Midwest Choppa" is bearing down.
Macy Chiasson ($9,000)
It seems likely that this bout will go in a similar direction to the first fight between Chiasson and Pannie Kianzad in 2018, when Chiasson was able to find victory by second-round submission. If anything, Chiasson seems to use her wrestling more these days, as she has logged 11 takedowns in her last four fights. Kianzad may have a respectable 71 percent takedown defense rate, but she was grounded three times and controlled for almost 11 minutes in her last bout with Ketlen Vieira in July.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Josh Culibao OVER 50.5 Significant Strikes, Tai Tuivasa UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes, and Thiago Moises OVER 36.5 Significant Strikes
Newcomer Danny Silva likes to do his best Nate Diaz impression in the cage, walking forward with his hands down and taunting his opponents while trying to land big shots. While he does have power, he is also very hittable and often limits his offense to single power punches. Culiabo is a solid boxer, whether pressing forward or counter-striking, which should ensure that he is able to pile up the significant strikes over 15 minutes.
I was ready to play the main event as a prop bet, but this seems like entirely too many strikes for Tuivasa to land, as he is likely to either swarm and finish Marcin Tybura, or get taken down. We've seen how defenseless "Bam Bam" can look off of his back, and Tybura has a tendency to be very tentative in front of big power punchers, leading to early finishes.
Moises is at his best when he can work his wrestling into his submission game, but Mitch Ramirez should have his foot on the gas from the opening bell. While this may prevent Moises from wrestling, we've seen the Brazilian get comfortable from boxing range when he needs to be. I expect this fight to subvert expectations and give us quite a bit of striking.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Josiane Nunes UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Kennedy Nzechukwu OVER 6.0 Minutes of Fight Time, and Jafel Filho UNDER 9.75 Minutes Of fight Time
Nunes and Chelsea Chandler are both chaotic fighters who will meet in the middle of the cage and look for a car crash. Chandler will attempt to use her grappling a bit more often than her Brazilian counterpart, but her ability to wrestle doesn't extend much further than her physical strength, and Nunes has held her own in clinch positions despite her short stature. Unless this fight stalls out against the cage, it seems likely that one of these fighters will find a victory in short order.
Ovince Saint Preux seems less durable with each fight, but it should be noted that the former title challenger has been in the second round in eight of his last ten fights. Nzechukwu has been more aggressive lately, but he will still need to negotiate a long and lanky opponent, which may make him a bit more hesitant to engage.
Jafel Filho fights so recklessly that one can't help but predict his bouts to end early. "Pastor" barrels into range looking for takedowns and either gets the fight to the ground or eats hard shots for his troubles. Ode Osbourne manages distance well but has a hard time when the fight hits the ground, as evidenced by the fact that three of his six losses have come via submission. Whoever gets the upper hand in this one should be able to turn it into a finish rather quickly, giving us time to spare on the clock.
Bets to Consider
Bryan Battle wins via KO/TKO (+600)
It's been a while since I've spread my wings when it comes to props, but we've seen Ange Loosa hurt on more than one occasion in the Octagon, and Battle has come into his own as a power striker, finishing two of his last three fights with one-hit knockouts. Loosa's competent grappling should keep him safe on the ground, but his ability to be hit (and wobbled) gives this one more than just a puncher's chance.
