DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown

DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

As we near the end of the regular season, we have another heavy schedule for a Monday. There are 11 total games, eight of which will be available on the main slate. It's not a particularly inspiring group of starting pitchers, but there are a few value options available. We're likely to see roster rates condense around those names. On the hitter side, none of the obvious hitter-friendly parks are on the schedule, so we'll look primarily to matchups to make our decisions.

Pitchers  

The top two pitchers of the day are clear enough with Zack Wheeler ($10,900) and Freddy Peralta ($11,300). Wheeler draws Atlanta, so Peralta is the preferred option against the Cardinals. Peralta owns the highest strikeout rate of the day and has reached 30 DK points in three of his last five outings.

Michael Wacha ($8,900) is one pitcher I'd expect roster rate to cluster around. His skills aren't particularly compelling, which is a problem at his price point. The matchup is what will draw people, as he gets the Rockies in San Diego. The strategy could work out as Colorado has a dreadful 27.3 percent strikeout rate and .284 wOBA away from Coors Field, but there are ways for this to go sideways simply because Wacha isn't that good.

One potential pivot in the same price range is Lance Lynn ($8,400). He's struggled of late but has a relatively strong record since joining the Dodgers and his own exploitable matchup against the Tigers. Detroit has struck out at the fourth-highest rate in the last 30 days.

The other obvious pitcher to target is Bryan Woo ($7,200), and he'll rightfully be chalky. He's in a cluster of five pitchers with a strikeout rate of around 24 percent and his ability to limit walks and homers is acceptable. Add in his price and a matchup against the Athletics and it's a pretty straightforward choice.

The punt option is Kutter Crawford ($6,200). He's in the same cluster of pitchers with a 24 percent strikeout rate, with his primary problem being the long ball. A matchup against the Rangers is definitely not one to target, but it's reasonable to take on some risk at his price point.

Top Hitters

John Means understandably looked rusty in his first outing on a big-league mound in 517 days. We should take advantage of that again with the Astros lineup. Kyle Tucker ($5,800) is a good option. A potential (relative) value is Chas McCormick ($4,400), who continues to be in the lineup against lefties even as he loses playing time. He's maintained an impressive .294 ISO and .433 wOBA with the handedness advantage this season.

Home or away, Ty Blach of the Rockies is worth targeting. Juan Soto ($5,500) has been on an absolute of late with Fernando Tatis ($5,700) right behind him. Any of the Padres studs are a good play Monday.

Value Bats

Assuming Christian Yelich (back) remains out, Tyrone Taylor ($3,000) is a nice value thanks to a matchup against Adam Wainwright. During Yelich's eight-game absence, Taylor has spiked performances of 24, 21, 19 and 16 DK points.

The White Sox have convinced themselves that it's a sound decision to play Elvis Andrus ($3,000) over Lenyn Sosa in a lost season, but it has allowed the former to emerge as a value option. He's been oddly productive of late, maintaining a .914 OPS (.543 slg.) across his last 10 games. The White Sox are a decent team to target with a matchup against Joan Adon, who has served 1.4 HR/9 this season.

Stacks to Consider

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright): Sal Frelick ($4,200), William Contreras ($5,100), Carlos Santana ($3,900)

If Yelich remains out, this is a value stack to either use as a secondary option or to pay up for pitching. Wainwright is an automatic target every time he takes the mound, as he has a minuscule 11.3 percent strikeout rate while giving up an extremely poor 1.9 HR/9. The result is a 5.85 SIERA.

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (Ty Blach): Jurickson Profar ($2,900), Fernando Tatis ($5,700), Juan Soto ($5,500)

This is a team to check the lineup for, as Ha-Seong Kim was scratched with an abdominal injury Sunday. If he remains out of the lineup, Profar is the likely leadoff hitter and offers good value that will temper the cost of the rest of the top of the order. The matchup against Blach puts San Diego in a good spot, as he has allowed 1.4 HR/9 and has maintained only a 13.5 percent strikeout rate. That's a lot of hard contact surrendered to a lineup capable of taking advantage.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91 DraftKings: dmarcus87.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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