This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a packed afternoon across the majors Sunday, with nine games making up the featured slate on DraftKings. That leaves us with a lot of options to wade through, so let's get right down to business and see where advantages can be gained.
Pitching Overview
The most expensive starter for the afternoon is Carlos Carrasco ($10,300) - and he's certainly deserving of that honor. He enters with a career 3.21 xFIP and has recorded a strikeout rate of at least 28.3 percent in three of the last four years. He also possesses excellent control, which helped him post a 1.13 WHIP last season. After him, J.A. Happ ($10,100) stands out as another top option. While he doesn't have the strikeout upside that Carrasco does, it doesn't get much better than his matchup against the Orioles. Happ completely dominated them last season, posting a 1.55 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 across five starts. Their lineup is just as bad now, so expect Happ to be one of the highest owned starters for the slate.
Jon Gray ($9,400) normally might not be worth this price tag, but he could be highly owned Sunday based on his matchup against the Marlins. Gray's 5.12 ERA last year was ugly, but his 3.47 xFIP indicates he didn't pitch that poorly. He also posted a 24.6 percent strikeout rate, so he can provide plenty of value if everything is working for him Sunday.
As far a cheap options go, Michael Pineda ($7,400) might be a popular choice. The Indians offense isn't anything special without Francisco Lindor (calf/ankle), which has attributed to them scoring two runs across the first two games of this series. Jake Odorizzi made them look silly Saturday, recording 11 strikeouts and allowing only one run across six innings. Pineda enjoyed a solid spring with a 0.93 WHIP and 20 strikeouts over 20.1 innings, allowing significant salary relief if you want to load up on hitters.
Key Values/Chalk
Although the Yankees were held to three runs Saturday, they are going to be a popular team to target against Dylan Bundy. Bundy allowed a whopping 2.1 HR/9 last year, so power hitters like Aaron Judge ($5,400) and Giancarlo Stanton ($5,300) should be highly owned despite their lofty price tags. Miguel Andujar ($4,100) could also be very trendy considering his significantly cheaper price. He provided stellar power numbers last year with 27 homers and 47 doubles.
Scoring has not been hard to come by in the series between the Brewers and Cardinals. Keeping that in mind, several Brewers players could be highly owned facing Michael Wacha. Wacha's 3.20 ERA last season looks nice, but he experienced plenty of luck on his side based on his 4.12 xFIP and .249 opponents BABIP. He also wasn't an overpowering option with his 20 percent strikeout rate. Christian Yelich ($5,500) has shown that his stellar campaign last season was no fluke with a home run in three straight games, so expect him to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
It's no secret the Yankees and Brewers boast potent lineups. While they don't have nearly the same kind of fire power, the Blue Jays should be popular for their matchup against Matt Moore. Moore couldn't keep runners off base last year, leaving him with a bloated 1.66 WHIP. He also allowed 1.7 HR/9, which is a killer considering the rate at which he puts hitters on base. Right-handed batters registered a .390 wOBA against him, so expect Randal Grichuk ($4,300), Justin Smoak ($4,100) and Teoscar Hernandez ($4,100) to be highly owned.
Stacks
A Yankees stack against the Orioles is going to be chalk for this slate. Combine how poorly Bundy pitched last year with this game being at Yankee Stadium and it's just too enticing. As good as Judge and Stanton are, it's hard to have both in your lineup. Expect Judge to be the higher owned player of the two. Outside of Andujar, Brett Gardner ($3,900) will likely be a key figure in most Yankees stacks based on his cheaper price and him hitting leadoff.
Just about any Brewers stack is going to be centered on Yelich. Mike Moustakas ($4,700) should also be popular with his power upside. He's already gone deep in two of the previous three games in this series. With such potent bats hitting behind him, Lorenzo Cain ($4,300) also makes a lot of sense in a Brewers stack based on his price.
A Blue Jays stack should also be popular against Moore with the three players previously outlined likely being at the center of most of them. If you're looking for a stack to pursue in tournament play that might have low ownership percentage, don't sleep on the Rays against Wade Miley. He struggled with a measly 14.8 percent strikeout rate last year, so he's not exactly an overpowering force. A stack consisting of Tommy Pham ($4,300), Avisail Garcia ($4,000) and Willy Adames ($3,700) won't cost much, but at least there's some upside. Pham is especially appealing considering his career .372 wOBA against left-handed pitchers.
