FanDuel is offering a 10-game main slate Saturday evening with the first pitch at 7:05 p.m EDT. Three aces come with five-figure salaries and three other are at least $9,000 before the top-tier options begin to fall off.
We've got massive favorites with the Orioles (-260) and Twins (-245), making for obvious spots to target the home side's pitchers. Scoring doesn't look like it'll be plentiful as no matchups list double-digit run lines as the Mets-Giants and Astros-Athletics the low spots at 7.5 with Cubs-White Sox representing the peak at 9.5. Rain is possible in Chicago and should be monitored while hot and potential outbound winds may make St. Louis an attractive environment. Wind also looks helpful in Anaheim and San Francisco, though it won't be as warm.
Pitching
Trevor Rogers, BAL vs. COL ($9,700): We went to the well against the Rockies on Friday with minimal success, so I'll play the odds and say they won't succeed for a second straight night. Colorado ranks 29th with a 70 wRC+ off lefties alongside a favorable 26.2 percent K rate and .289 wOBA. Rogers has produced three consecutive quality starts and five in seven, including only allowing four runs and 11 hits across his last 19.1 innings. He holds enough potential at a discount to the elite hurlers where he could match their outputs.
George Kirby, SEA at LAA ($8,800): With the Angels, it's all about the swing and miss potential as they fan 25.3 percent of the time against righties. Kirby isn't a huge K guy at 8.9 per nine, but it's in line with his career norms while his 3.34 xFIP suggests the 4.65 ERA will come down some. Current Angels are hitting .239 (22-for-92) with a .684 OPS and elevated 27.1 percent K rate against Kirby.
Kumar Rocker, TEX vs. ATL ($8,100): There are some attractive paydown options - namely Cade Horton ($7,700) and Jose Quintana ($8,000) - so I believe we'll get very low ownership on Rocker. I'm not sure Atlanta cares at this point after looking lifeless on Friday and striking out 11 times while only registering six hits. The lineup is loaded with free swingers despite a 22.6 percent K rate off righties. Rocker is wildly inconsistent, yet has managed two quality outings from his last four while displaying 5x upside. GPPs only for certain.
See which projected starters are going and when with RotoWire's Probable Pitchers page!
Top Targets
The Cubs' offense is the obvious starting point against Aaron Civale, who doesn't generate strikeouts and comes in with a 4.76 ERA and 5.33 xFIP. He carries odd splits as lefties have mashed him on the road and righties at home. Best not to overthink and simply target any of Pete Crow-Armstrong ($4,100), Kyle Tucker ($3,800) and/or Seiya Suzuki ($3,700) as your budget allows.
Washington's Mitchell Parker has posted a 6.46 road ERA (5.41 xFIP) away from home. He's been surprisingly hit harder by lefties, but that won't scare me away from Byron Buxton ($3,900) as he boasts a .453 wOBA, 196 wRC+ and .393 ISO off southpaws.
Hopefully you read Friday's column and used Nick Kurtz ($3,700)! We obviously can't go back to the well and expect a historic performance, though his valuation is $200 lower. It'll be difficult facing Hunter Brown, but he's hot so fade him at your own risk. And the matchup may result in low roster percentages.
Bargain Bats
The Twins' order is stackable thanks to the matchup and salary points. Royce Lewis ($2,700) has registered eight hits and three homers over his last five while Carlos Correa ($2,700) has a .391 wOBA, 153 wRC+ and a .236 ISO versus lefties.
Corey Seager ($3,200), every night until the salary changes. Atlanta's Grant Holmes has struggled to a 5.19 road ERA (5.02 xFIP), yet it's righties that have hit him harder to also potentially get Adolis Garcia ($3,000) and Marcus Semien ($3,000) involved.
I'm slightly elevating the St. Louis bats due to weather, so we'll need to confirm the heat and wind later on. Padres' starter Randy Vasquez has posted a 4.34 road ERA and 5.98 xFIP while surrendering a .401 wOBA and .922 OPS to lefties. I don't trust the Cards enough to stack, but it sure sets up favorably for Alec Burleson ($2,900) and Brendan Donovan ($2,900).
Stacks to Consider
Orioles vs. Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Gunnar Henderson ($3,400), Jackson Holliday ($3,100), Ryan O'Hearn ($3,000)
This is about as obvious as it gets. Senzatela has been pummelled all year, home and away, both righties and lefties. He currently sits with a 6.43 road ERA (5.80 xFIP) while allowing a .471 wOBA and 1.100 OPS to opposite-handed bats. This isn't going to be an original idea and it's possible Baltimore strikes early and often to chase Senzatela, which is why I'll target the top of their order. Their entire lineup is in play if you want to use some different names like Colton Cowser ($2,900), or even a right-handed bat to shake things up.
Mariners at Tyler Anderson: Josh Naylor ($3,400), Julio Rodriguez ($3,300), Randy Arozarena ($3,300)
This is largely a BvP stack, so it comes with some risk. This trio is also a collective 12-for-33 (.364) off Anderson, having all taken him deep. Anderson is sliding of late having given up 11 runs and 20 hits through his last three starts spanning 16.0 innings. The Angels seem content to let him pitch deep enough despite being hit, so the first few hitters should see him up to three times and we can pay down from Cal Raleigh ($4,500) and potentially benefit from anything he may accomplish. Mix in favorable winds, and we could get some nice production from lower-rostered players.
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